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OpenAI overtaking Microsoft? Seriously? Microsoft has a massively diversified business spanning from gaming and cloud infra to B2B software that the entire worl
by veunes 6mo ago
OpenAI overtaking Microsoft? Seriously? Microsoft has a massively diversified business spanning from gaming and cloud infra to B2B software that the entire world runs on. OpenAI has exactly one product (matrix weights), which is getting heavily commoditized by open-source models every single day. Once a theoretical Llama 4 catches up to GPT-5, an API price war is going to completely nuke their hyper-margins
- aurareturn 6mo agoThat one product can reproduce or replace nearly all of Microsoft's services. It's not OpenAI that is going to do it. It's people and other companies wielding OpenAI's model that will do it.
- veunes 6mo agoYour whole premise is built on the OpenAI model, but that's not a moat, it's just a temporary API endpoint. The second a theoretical Llama 5 drops that's 10% cheaper and 5% smarter, every single startup in that "ecosystem" will switch their base_url overnight to save their margins. Microsoft on the other hand, just owns Azure - they'll just add the new model as another option and continue to own the end customer. OpenAI it's just a swappable engine