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To me, this is the absolutely key phrase in the entire article. " Some question the usefulness of the economic models the CPB uses, which (like all economic mo

To me, this is the absolutely key phrase in the entire article. " Some question the usefulness of the economic models the CPB uses, which (like all economic models) have never successfully predicted what the economy will do several years down the road." The problem with any sort of fact checking agency in regards to economics, while useful, is far from a magic crystal ball. Economics is a pretty vague sort of thing that straddles the line between between the humanities and hard science. As a former economics student, I can tell you I've met very brilliant people who have adamantly disagree with one another, yet both have excellent insights. It's tough to definitely say that x plan is better than y plan, because there are so many what if scenarios and assumptions to rely on. That being said, I find it's generally better to trust whoever has articulated their plan better. Simply the act of extrapolating out their assumptions means that while they may be wrong, we can look and see if they've taken into account the metrics that matter.

jules 14y ago
At the very least, the CPB requires that the budget actually adds up mathematically, something that cannot be said of the things that politicians proclaim ("everyone will get tax breaks!! we will close the budget by removing inefficiencies!"). Even though the prediction is not perfect, a group of experts can still detect outright wrong and misleading policies. In the US if a politician says "the middle class will get tax breaks!" you don't know if that actually means anything since another take hike might totally negate a small tax break. Even though the CPB cannot predict the future accurately, it can verify such statements by adding up all the proposed tax hikes and breaks and premiums, and use its statistical model of which policies apply to the middle class population to come up with a number like "on average a middle class person will have €56.30 more per month". For example, check out this graph, which breaks up the effects of the new government by income level: http://static3.volkskrant.nl/static/photo/2012/14/8/6/20121108064823/media_xl_1417281.jpg http://static3.volkskrant.nl/static/photo/2012/14/8/6/201211... The idea that you would do better by listening to the words of politicians on TV, than a group of experts working on this full time who actually calculate the effects of all the proposed policies sounds preposterous to me.

jules 14y ago

At the very least, the CPB requires that the budget actually adds up mathematically, something that cannot be said of the things that politicians proclaim ("everyone will get tax breaks!! we will close the budget by removing inefficiencies!"). Even though the prediction is not perfect, a group of experts can still detect outright wrong and misleading policies. In the US if a politician says "the middle class will get tax breaks!" you don't know if that actually means anything since another take hike might totally negate a small tax break. Even though the CPB cannot predict the future accurately, it can verify such statements by adding up all the proposed tax hikes and breaks and premiums, and use its statistical model of which policies apply to the middle class population to come up with a number like "on average a middle class person will have €56.30 more per month". For example, check out this graph, which breaks up the effects of the new government by income level: http://static3.volkskrant.nl/static/photo/2012/14/8/6/20121108064823/media_xl_1417281.jpg http://static3.volkskrant.nl/static/photo/2012/14/8/6/201211... The idea that you would do better by listening to the words of politicians on TV, than a group of experts working on this full time who actually calculate the effects of all the proposed policies sounds preposterous to me.