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They’ve killed dozens during the shuttle program , or did you forget ? Also a number during Gemini, Mercury and Appollo. Terrible safety record , and 5x worse t
by tonymet 7mo ago
They’ve killed dozens during the shuttle program , or did you forget ? Also a number during Gemini, Mercury and Appollo. Terrible safety record , and 5x worse than Soyuz . Shuttle fatality rate was 1/10. Approaching Russian roulette odds
- mikelitoris 7mo agoIt’s the American roulette
- shrubble 7mo ago*Freedom Roulette
- wat10000 7mo ago135 missions, 2 fatal accidents, that’s not 1/10.
- tonymet 7mo ago[flagged]
- kelnos 7mo agoThat... doesn't make any sense.
- tonymet 7mo agoIf the odds were only 1% , how did 14 people die ? You’re not including the lives in your risk assessment . There were 135 events and 14 people died . If you were asked to join mission 136 would you say yes or no? Which risk profile fits: 1% fatality or 10%?
- wat10000 7mo agoBy that logic, the fatality rate in NYC skyscrapers on 9/11 was something like 1500%, since there were <200 skyscrapers and ~2,700 people died. It doesn't make any sense. Your numerator and denominator need to use the same units. The rate of fatal accidents was 2/135. The rate of crew fatalities was 14/355. The rate for crew-flight fatalities (separately counting multiple flights by the same person) was 14/852. If you were evaluating your risk for another flight, the number of crew aboard doesn't affect the risk and it's pretty reasonable to assume that an accident results in either a 0% or 100% fatality rate, so the relevant figure would be the fatal accident rate of 2/135. If your flight follows that profile then that's your probability of dying in an accident.
- tonymet 7mo agoYou still haven't explained how so many died and why the program ended.
- wat10000 7mo agoI didn't and don't intend to. I was just addressing your incorrect figures.
- tonymet 7mo agoHow can your model be correct when it doesn’t explain the world ?
- wat10000 7mo agoProbabilities don't explain why they are what they are. If you flip a coin a bunch of times and find that it lands on heads 52% of the time, that doesn't tell you anything about what's going on with that coin to bias it. It's not supposed to. That's a different field altogether.
- wat10000 7mo agoWat
- 1shooner 7mo ago>They’ve killed dozens during the shuttle program Columbia and Challenger crew totaled 14, who else are you referring to?
- tonymet 7mo agoOh 14 totally acceptable
- staplung 7mo agoIn total, a little over one dozen astronauts died on shuttle flights (14). No astronauts died during Gemini or Mercury. Three died in a test on Apollo 1. The shuttle failure rate was nowhere close to 1/10. In fact, it was 1/67 (2 failures out of 134 flights).