The theory does accord with the last several general elections, but it doesn't seem to accord with primaries. For example, Herman Cain, Howard Dean, and Mike Hu

The theory does accord with the last several general elections, but it doesn't seem to accord with primaries. For example, Herman Cain, Howard Dean, and Mike Huckabee all lost out to less charismatic candidates. Since primaries are now decided on a similar basis to general elections--debate performance, fundraising, retail politics--it seems like these data points ought to be included.