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It's a bit absurd to describe all the procedures Iran takes to disguise those ships. It's not like it is hard for the US military to track massive tankers in a

by cm2187 7mo ago

It's a bit absurd to describe all the procedures Iran takes to disguise those ships. It's not like it is hard for the US military to track massive tankers in a small sea (or to intercept them if they wish to). Those tankers are tolerated by the US because they don't want to antagonise China more than they need right now (not the least to keep them out of this conflict), and don't want to add more pressure on the oil market. Not because somehow those ships evaded US vigilance thanks to Iran's cunning skills. But this is a damocles sword hanging over Iran. The US could seize those tankers if they want to apply more pressure.

cheriot 7mo ago
Agree it's a thin disguise. It works because the same sword hangs over Trump's head as well. He needs the price of oil to not spike too high so any oil supply is welcome.
- cm2187 7mo ago
  And for all the heated rethoric, both sides have shown a certain restraint so far, which is encouraging. It doesn't feel like a deal is out of the question.
  - jjgreen 7mo ago
    No point in making a deal with the US, they always welch.
    - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
      > No point in making a deal with the US Hot take on the internet. Different picture when bombs are raining down on your infrastructure.
jmward01 7mo ago
And by doing so escalate more and potentially lead Iran to hit critical infra across the gulf nations and potentially disrupt red sea shipping too. There is too much exposed, expensive and delicate infrastructure to adequately protect. Iran could likely cause far more damage than it already has, and to infrastructure that could lead to years, or even decades, of problems all at a time when oil is starting to wind down. The gulf nations know this. This could transition oil earlier than expected. Hit their oil infra, and their water infra and the region may not recover until oil is no longer in demand. Nations are likely taking notice of how cavalier the US is being with other nations security and prosperity right now. Spain is getting down right hostile and we have a lot of military assets there and along history of joint bases with them. This is potentially a major turning point for supporting the US in any endeavor. Basically, yeah, I am sure we know where those ships are but hopefully we are being as rational as possible somewhere in the government and are holding back in hopes of -something- being salvaged here.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
  > by doing so escalate more and potentially lead Iran to hit critical infra across the gulf nations and potentially disrupt red sea shipping Nothing indicates the U.S. is taking Iran's threats of escalation seriously. Like, I think we should. But it doesn't seem to be playing into the calculus. If Iran escalates, the U.S. can too. And I don't think Trump is bluffing about hitting power and water infrastructure. The reason we aren't hitting the ships is because we want oil to keep flowing into the international markets.
JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
> not like it is hard for the US military to track massive tankers in a small sea We're not hitting their tankers for the same reason we are suspending sanctions on Russian oil. It's a desperate bid to keep prices at the pump down.
- srean 7mo ago
  Curious, at what price per barrel does US oil fields get profitable? For their own domestic consumption they don't really need the Irani oil do they ? It seems to be the case that it's rest of the world that needs the oil and US needs the rest of the world to not be pissed at the US.
  - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
    > at what price per barrel does US oil fields get profitable? $30 to 70 per barrel [1]. (Pretty much all production is profitable above $100/barrel.) > they don't really need the Irani oil do they ? Our refineries can't process our own crude. So we export crude and import refined products. That said, yes, the oil exports do blunt the net effect of the blow. If pressure really rose, one could tax the excess profits to directly reduce gas prices. [1] https://www.opxai.com/why-your-oilfield-will-fail-at-60-oil-unless-you-fire-your-reactive-mindset/ https://www.opxai.com/why-your-oilfield-will-fail-at-60-oil-...
    - srean 7mo ago
      Oh thanks. Did not know about the refining bit.
themafia 7mo ago
> Not because somehow those ships evaded US vigilance thanks to Iran's cunning skills. Well.. we can't have America look bad. What would that do to the DOW? > because they don't want to antagonise China more than they need right now So, it actually does sound like Iran is pretty cunning here.
master_crab 7mo ago
In the past it had less to do with seizing the vessels and more to do with keeping financial flows between organizations offering shipping services and oil hidden from the banking system. America could have easily seized any ship they wanted to during the sanctions over the past decade. They didnt because the sanctions are American constructs: they dont apply on the open seas where UNCLOS matters. America can still seize them, but the legality is murky and comes with a reputational cost. Now with Hormuz closed, America needs every last oil barrel moving so the economy doesn’t grind to a halt. Remember, it’s a war of choice for the US. We don’t need Iran gone as much as we want low oil prices.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
  > the sanctions are American constructs: they dont apply on the open seas where UNCLOS matters Technically correct. But the way these countries evade U.S. sanctions is by flying false or no flag. That, in turn, makes them vulnerable under UNCLOS's anti-piracy rules.
  - master_crab 7mo ago
    No flag is rare because that immediately opens them to anti-piracy. But coming back to my original point: it isn’t America’s determination that a registration is fraudulent. It is the flag state’s.
    - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
      > it isn’t America’s determination that a registration is fraudulent. It is the flag state’s. Sort of. If there is no flag, it's America's determination. And in many of the seizure cases, the flag state confirmed a fraudulent registration. (I believe there was one around Venezuela falsely registered with Panama.)

by cm2187 7mo ago

cheriot 7mo ago

Agree it's a thin disguise. It works because the same sword hangs over Trump's head as well. He needs the price of oil to not spike too high so any oil supply is welcome.

cm2187 7mo ago
And for all the heated rethoric, both sides have shown a certain restraint so far, which is encouraging. It doesn't feel like a deal is out of the question.
- jjgreen 7mo ago
  No point in making a deal with the US, they always welch.
  - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
    > No point in making a deal with the US Hot take on the internet. Different picture when bombs are raining down on your infrastructure.

jmward01 7mo ago

And by doing so escalate more and potentially lead Iran to hit critical infra across the gulf nations and potentially disrupt red sea shipping too. There is too much exposed, expensive and delicate infrastructure to adequately protect. Iran could likely cause far more damage than it already has, and to infrastructure that could lead to years, or even decades, of problems all at a time when oil is starting to wind down. The gulf nations know this. This could transition oil earlier than expected. Hit their oil infra, and their water infra and the region may not recover until oil is no longer in demand. Nations are likely taking notice of how cavalier the US is being with other nations security and prosperity right now. Spain is getting down right hostile and we have a lot of military assets there and along history of joint bases with them. This is potentially a major turning point for supporting the US in any endeavor. Basically, yeah, I am sure we know where those ships are but hopefully we are being as rational as possible somewhere in the government and are holding back in hopes of -something- being salvaged here.

JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
> by doing so escalate more and potentially lead Iran to hit critical infra across the gulf nations and potentially disrupt red sea shipping Nothing indicates the U.S. is taking Iran's threats of escalation seriously. Like, I think we should. But it doesn't seem to be playing into the calculus. If Iran escalates, the U.S. can too. And I don't think Trump is bluffing about hitting power and water infrastructure. The reason we aren't hitting the ships is because we want oil to keep flowing into the international markets.

JumpCrisscross 7mo ago

> not like it is hard for the US military to track massive tankers in a small sea We're not hitting their tankers for the same reason we are suspending sanctions on Russian oil. It's a desperate bid to keep prices at the pump down.

srean 7mo ago
Curious, at what price per barrel does US oil fields get profitable? For their own domestic consumption they don't really need the Irani oil do they ? It seems to be the case that it's rest of the world that needs the oil and US needs the rest of the world to not be pissed at the US.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
  > at what price per barrel does US oil fields get profitable? $30 to 70 per barrel [1]. (Pretty much all production is profitable above $100/barrel.) > they don't really need the Irani oil do they ? Our refineries can't process our own crude. So we export crude and import refined products. That said, yes, the oil exports do blunt the net effect of the blow. If pressure really rose, one could tax the excess profits to directly reduce gas prices. [1] https://www.opxai.com/why-your-oilfield-will-fail-at-60-oil-unless-you-fire-your-reactive-mindset/ https://www.opxai.com/why-your-oilfield-will-fail-at-60-oil-...
  - srean 7mo ago
    Oh thanks. Did not know about the refining bit.

themafia 7mo ago

> Not because somehow those ships evaded US vigilance thanks to Iran's cunning skills. Well.. we can't have America look bad. What would that do to the DOW? > because they don't want to antagonise China more than they need right now So, it actually does sound like Iran is pretty cunning here.

master_crab 7mo ago

In the past it had less to do with seizing the vessels and more to do with keeping financial flows between organizations offering shipping services and oil hidden from the banking system. America could have easily seized any ship they wanted to during the sanctions over the past decade. They didnt because the sanctions are American constructs: they dont apply on the open seas where UNCLOS matters. America can still seize them, but the legality is murky and comes with a reputational cost. Now with Hormuz closed, America needs every last oil barrel moving so the economy doesn’t grind to a halt. Remember, it’s a war of choice for the US. We don’t need Iran gone as much as we want low oil prices.

JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
> the sanctions are American constructs: they dont apply on the open seas where UNCLOS matters Technically correct. But the way these countries evade U.S. sanctions is by flying false or no flag. That, in turn, makes them vulnerable under UNCLOS's anti-piracy rules.
- master_crab 7mo ago
  No flag is rare because that immediately opens them to anti-piracy. But coming back to my original point: it isn’t America’s determination that a registration is fraudulent. It is the flag state’s.
  - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
    > it isn’t America’s determination that a registration is fraudulent. It is the flag state’s. Sort of. If there is no flag, it's America's determination. And in many of the seizure cases, the flag state confirmed a fraudulent registration. (I believe there was one around Venezuela falsely registered with Panama.)