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I don't discount this as a possibility but my impression is that the OpenAI brand isn't very sticky. Internet Explorer being pre-installed on Windows devices d

by niam 6mo ago

I don't discount this as a possibility but my impression is that the OpenAI brand isn't very sticky. Internet Explorer being pre-installed on Windows devices didn't prevent it from being demolished by newcomer Chrome throughout the 2010s. Now we're looking at a product that's even less integrated, and whose value is exposed through universal interfaces (human language, images, etc.). If OpenAI succeeds, I imagine that remarkably little of it will have come from the brand. But subtracting the first-mover brand advantage: they can either compete on the frontier, which seems difficult and bears potentially diminishing returns (particularly wrt to distillation); or compete as a commodity, which I imagine cannot justify their valuation/spend. It seems very uphill of a battle.

fragmede 6mo ago
For people that use ChatGPT the same way you do, yeah it's not. For people in the throes of AI psychosis who've named their ChatGPT and have a deep relationship with it, switching to a newer model from OpenAI is an issue, nevermind switching to a different model from a different company.
- niam 6mo ago
  I considered that but I don't see it being very impactful. It presumes a user who cares enough about "their" ChatGPT that they can't move from a particular model provider, but simultaneously does not care enough that model providers themselves have a financial motivation to shoo users onto their newer and more efficient models. The transition from GPT4 to GPT5 was not well recieved among this crowd -- nevermind that I think this crowd is pretty small (comparatively) to begin with. I just don't imagine you can build a business on that sliver of a sliver, much less one that justifies OpenAI's spending.
  - fragmede 6mo ago
    What you see as a sliver, I see as much more. Only OpenAI and their investors know for sure, but looking at a base human with a smartphone and ChatGPT, I think there are more in that group than you think.
- d2ssa 6mo ago
  Most people dont give a hoot about that, they have much more interesting stuff going on in life.

by niam 6mo ago

fragmede 6mo ago

For people that use ChatGPT the same way you do, yeah it's not. For people in the throes of AI psychosis who've named their ChatGPT and have a deep relationship with it, switching to a newer model from OpenAI is an issue, nevermind switching to a different model from a different company.

niam 6mo ago
I considered that but I don't see it being very impactful. It presumes a user who cares enough about "their" ChatGPT that they can't move from a particular model provider, but simultaneously does not care enough that model providers themselves have a financial motivation to shoo users onto their newer and more efficient models. The transition from GPT4 to GPT5 was not well recieved among this crowd -- nevermind that I think this crowd is pretty small (comparatively) to begin with. I just don't imagine you can build a business on that sliver of a sliver, much less one that justifies OpenAI's spending.
- fragmede 6mo ago
  What you see as a sliver, I see as much more. Only OpenAI and their investors know for sure, but looking at a base human with a smartphone and ChatGPT, I think there are more in that group than you think.
d2ssa 6mo ago
Most people dont give a hoot about that, they have much more interesting stuff going on in life.