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SpaceX's monster IPO is unlike anything we've seen
- babaliauskas 7mo agoSo we're calling this a SpaceX IPO, but what's actually going public is SpaceX + xAI + whatever X is this quarter. The rockets are a real business. The AI side is a giant GPU bill and a story. Feels less like a normal IPO and more like Musk rolling a bunch of experiments into one very expensive ticker.
- johng 7mo agoAgreed. SpaceX is the only company that I actually think is a good company.
- mooreds 7mo agoYeah, it's a conglomerate. Typically a bad idea from a business perspective, but can be a winner financially since "all" you need to do to gain shareholder value is spin off the units. (I say "all" because it might be simple but not easy.) I wonder what kinds of control Elon will have on the company. Is it going to be like Google with special shares? Like Tesla having a board stacked with buddies? I'm sure I'll pick up some exposure via index funds, but the governance would give me pause on being overweight.
- Zigurd 7mo agoThe kindest thing we can say about SpaceX is that Falcon 9 is the best run space launch operation ever. But is it profitable? Are those five-year lifespan satellites really assets? Do they generate enough cash flow to be replaced or was that all funded by capital raises along the way? And now Elon has stapled his third rate AI and zombie social network to the rockets. Because of the way it's structured with a tiny float compared to the valuation, I wouldn't bet against the IPO at the target price. The IPO will raise enough money to keep things running for another year. But it's not a big raise especially relative to the burn rate.