4 ms·

Is there a source that says commercial RAM prices are dropping? I was recently told (without a source, so I am not sure if it is true or not) that OpenAI never

Is there a source that says commercial RAM prices are dropping? I was recently told (without a source, so I am not sure if it is true or not) that OpenAI never even bought any of the RAM they signed deals on last year, and that those deals were just letters of intent. So if prices are coming down I wouldn't be shocked but the economy is pretty well vibe coded these days so who even knows.

ffsm8 7mo ago
Well, all manufacturers of ram have publicly stated that they're sold out for 2026 RAM prices falling during 2026 is insanely unlikely unless AI crashes so hard it starts to actually kill companies. And not just any but big tech I'm not seeing that in 2026. Maybe 2027 (I'd sincerely doubt that too, honestly), but definitely not within the next 9 months. Their runway is _way_ too large for things to spiral out of control within such a short period of time
- citrin_ru 7mo ago
  > unlikely unless AI crashes so hard it starts to actually kill companies. And not just any but big tech. I'm not seeing that in 2026 A month ago AI crash we looking unlikely but with the strait of Hormuz being de-facto blocked many predict a global stagflation which could affect AI too.
- dylan604 7mo ago
  If the claims the GP made about letters of intent to buy vs actual purchases are true, that brings additional questions. Like, if you send a letter of intent but do not follow through, are there financial penalties? How hard is it for the chip maker to sell the chips allotted based on that letter of intent? Would someone like Apple buy up the extra, or would they not need it as they've already bought enough for the units they expect to sell? If someone like Apple suddenly had an influx of RAM, that does not mean they would have extra CPU capacity to match. If the supply chain is this closely apportioned, what is the most likely result of a sudden surplus?
- eru 7mo ago
  If the spot market for RAM is reasonably efficient, prices should be about as likely to fall as to increase further. Otherwise you could make a surefire profit by just buying some RAM and waiting a few months to re-sell. (All of this is modulo interest rates etc to finance this.)
  - ffsm8 7mo ago
    > Otherwise you could make a surefire profit by just buying some RAM and waiting a few months to re-sell. Yes, that's why scalping is so widespread right now, because that's essentially what it is
    - eru 7mo ago
      And all morality aside: people will scalp ever harder, until prices are as likely to go down as up. That's not just RAM, but pretty much any commodity or financial instrument.
sergiotapia 7mo ago
here you go: https://x.com/wccftech/status/2037921057097892018 https://x.com/wccftech/status/2037921057097892018 Ram prices are dropping
- itintheory 7mo ago
  Every response to the original post calls it out as being factually incorrect...
  - sergiotapia 7mo ago
    Nope https://x.com/rdd147/status/2038383801307639960 https://x.com/rdd147/status/2038383801307639960
  - sergiotapia 7mo ago
    And one more: https://x.com/AGCast4/status/2038638898151383519 https://x.com/AGCast4/status/2038638898151383519

ffsm8 7mo ago

Well, all manufacturers of ram have publicly stated that they're sold out for 2026 RAM prices falling during 2026 is insanely unlikely unless AI crashes so hard it starts to actually kill companies. And not just any but big tech I'm not seeing that in 2026. Maybe 2027 (I'd sincerely doubt that too, honestly), but definitely not within the next 9 months. Their runway is _way_ too large for things to spiral out of control within such a short period of time

citrin_ru 7mo ago
> unlikely unless AI crashes so hard it starts to actually kill companies. And not just any but big tech. I'm not seeing that in 2026 A month ago AI crash we looking unlikely but with the strait of Hormuz being de-facto blocked many predict a global stagflation which could affect AI too.
dylan604 7mo ago
If the claims the GP made about letters of intent to buy vs actual purchases are true, that brings additional questions. Like, if you send a letter of intent but do not follow through, are there financial penalties? How hard is it for the chip maker to sell the chips allotted based on that letter of intent? Would someone like Apple buy up the extra, or would they not need it as they've already bought enough for the units they expect to sell? If someone like Apple suddenly had an influx of RAM, that does not mean they would have extra CPU capacity to match. If the supply chain is this closely apportioned, what is the most likely result of a sudden surplus?
eru 7mo ago
If the spot market for RAM is reasonably efficient, prices should be about as likely to fall as to increase further. Otherwise you could make a surefire profit by just buying some RAM and waiting a few months to re-sell. (All of this is modulo interest rates etc to finance this.)
- ffsm8 7mo ago
  > Otherwise you could make a surefire profit by just buying some RAM and waiting a few months to re-sell. Yes, that's why scalping is so widespread right now, because that's essentially what it is
  - eru 7mo ago
    And all morality aside: people will scalp ever harder, until prices are as likely to go down as up. That's not just RAM, but pretty much any commodity or financial instrument.

sergiotapia 7mo ago

here you go: https://x.com/wccftech/status/2037921057097892018 https://x.com/wccftech/status/2037921057097892018 Ram prices are dropping

itintheory 7mo ago
Every response to the original post calls it out as being factually incorrect...
- sergiotapia 7mo ago
  Nope https://x.com/rdd147/status/2038383801307639960 https://x.com/rdd147/status/2038383801307639960
- sergiotapia 7mo ago
  And one more: https://x.com/AGCast4/status/2038638898151383519 https://x.com/AGCast4/status/2038638898151383519