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There's another case to be made that Apple's income in the US is coming predominantly from a relatively affluent youthful buyer population, who in turn is getti
by pja 14y ago
There's another case to be made that Apple's income in the US is coming predominantly from a relatively affluent youthful buyer population, who in turn is getting their income from student loans. The student loan situation looks like the next iteration of the serial credit bubbles that the US government has been busy blowing ever since the dotcom collapse: no-one can say when a bubble will burst (and indeed, some things that look like bubbles turn out not to be) but if / when it does, spending on Apple kit will nosedive.
It is of course possible that Apple can compensate with greater foreign sales to make up for any such drop, but if the only thing holding US M4 growth up (ie student loans) falls away I can't imagine that US imports of consumer goods will respond positively.
You could argue that Apple is really a levered investment on future consumer spending: if you're bullish about the world economy, you should be even more bullish on Apple & vice versa. This is the price of Apple's huge growth: if you're small, you can grow simply by being excellent. Once you're huge, macro effects start to dominate, no matter how good your products are.
- thewarrior 14y agoI'm surprised that this post dosent have more upvotes.