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"Their argument is that at some unspecified point in the future, popular sentiment will do a 180, and the company will fall off the face of the planet like they

"Their argument is that at some unspecified point in the future, popular sentiment will do a 180, and the company will fall off the face of the planet like they're the Crocs of the tech world." I think there is a lot of truth in this argument, and you didn't persuade me otherwise. Many (perhaps most?) of Apple's customers buy their products for lifestyle reasons: because they're "cool" and its fashionable to have them. Such customers are often fickle and easily influenced, and the herd can move on to the next shiny thing very quickly. If Android became the fashionable choice then it would be just as vulnerable. I'm not saying that all Apple users are fashion victims. Apple make some good products and deserve their success. If you're developing with ruby/java/etc and want a high build quality laptop running Unix then a mac is a good choice, for example, but that's not why most people buy macs. I think that Apple's near future will look like the recent past of Nokia and RIM.

coob 14y ago
You're completely ignoring Apple's best in class customer support.
- andyjohnson0 14y ago
  Maybe. I don't use Apple products, so I'm not sure how much their customer service contributes to the strength of their brand outside their hardcore/loyal customers. I'd be interested in your opinion on that. My view is that if you live within travelling distance of an Apple Store with a genius bar then the support is excellent. Otherwise, its not significantly better than Google's (poor) support, and adds little to the strength of their brand. Most people don't live near an Apple Store [1]. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Store#Locations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Store#Locations
simonh 14y ago
> I think that Apple's near future will look like the recent past of Nokia and RIM. Those companies were rendered irrelevant by radically new products they couldn't compete with. I can't see that happening to Apple. Even if Android or Windows devices achieved quality and feature parity, or even pushed past Apple's devices, Apple still have oceans of room to compete on price to retain market share. That combined with their best-in-class supply chain management would keep them competitive for years to come. So IMHO the worst case is they become just another device manufacturer in terms of profitability and their design and software chops contribute nothing to their ability to compete. That seems unlikely.
- andyjohnson0 14y ago
  "Those companies were rendered irrelevant by radically new products they couldn't compete with." True for Nokia, but not RIM. There was nothing "radically new" about the original iPhone compared to the Blackberry devices that existed at the time. The iPhone is better designed and more attractive, but RIM had good hardware with a rudimentary app store and integrated services (messaging) long before Apple. Blackberry was the default choice for business, then for a while became the fashionable choice (the "crackberry" period). Then their non-business customers moved on to the next new thing. And the reasons for this have everything to do with fashion and popular culture, and nothing to do with quality or features (even though the iPhone is better in those respects). I suspect that Nokia and RIM will hang on with a miserable future as "another device manufacturer", albeit owned by Microsoft or Facebook or $ChineseCorp. In that respect I think your worst case for Apple and my prediction about it amount to the same thing.

coob 14y ago

You're completely ignoring Apple's best in class customer support.

andyjohnson0 14y ago
Maybe. I don't use Apple products, so I'm not sure how much their customer service contributes to the strength of their brand outside their hardcore/loyal customers. I'd be interested in your opinion on that. My view is that if you live within travelling distance of an Apple Store with a genius bar then the support is excellent. Otherwise, its not significantly better than Google's (poor) support, and adds little to the strength of their brand. Most people don't live near an Apple Store [1]. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Store#Locations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Store#Locations

simonh 14y ago

> I think that Apple's near future will look like the recent past of Nokia and RIM. Those companies were rendered irrelevant by radically new products they couldn't compete with. I can't see that happening to Apple. Even if Android or Windows devices achieved quality and feature parity, or even pushed past Apple's devices, Apple still have oceans of room to compete on price to retain market share. That combined with their best-in-class supply chain management would keep them competitive for years to come. So IMHO the worst case is they become just another device manufacturer in terms of profitability and their design and software chops contribute nothing to their ability to compete. That seems unlikely.

andyjohnson0 14y ago
"Those companies were rendered irrelevant by radically new products they couldn't compete with." True for Nokia, but not RIM. There was nothing "radically new" about the original iPhone compared to the Blackberry devices that existed at the time. The iPhone is better designed and more attractive, but RIM had good hardware with a rudimentary app store and integrated services (messaging) long before Apple. Blackberry was the default choice for business, then for a while became the fashionable choice (the "crackberry" period). Then their non-business customers moved on to the next new thing. And the reasons for this have everything to do with fashion and popular culture, and nothing to do with quality or features (even though the iPhone is better in those respects). I suspect that Nokia and RIM will hang on with a miserable future as "another device manufacturer", albeit owned by Microsoft or Facebook or $ChineseCorp. In that respect I think your worst case for Apple and my prediction about it amount to the same thing.