5 ms·

Apple Stock Sinks as Profits and Products Are Questioned

43 points by Cbasedlifeform 14y ago

hoi 14y ago
With the UK tax figures for several companies including apple, where they only paid approx 2.5% in tax because most of the revenue recognition occurs in Ireland where they pay cheaper corporation tax, I guess this will have an impact for revenues for several companies going forward. Google are already in a dispute with France over this, and I would expect these tax loopholes to close int he future as Austerity hits the EU and each country looking for ways to boost tax income.
- fauigerzigerk 14y ago
  You probably mean profits not revenue. But the thing about raising taxes is that it opens an opportunity for other countries to benefit from having lower taxes without losing any tax revenue, because global companies will want to be there. At the end of the day, consumers will benefit from global tax competition ... as long as they stay healthy and young.
  - hoi 14y ago
    Yeah, profits is what I meant. That;s what they are doing using the competitive tax structure of Ireland and recognizing all EU revenue in Ireland instead of the repective countries in which the product is bought. My assumption is that these loopholes will eventually close because they are being reported about and taxpayers in those countries will be disgruntled that a company only pays 2.5% of its profits in tax because it's recognizing the revenues in a different jurisdiction to which the product was bought.
- pja 14y ago
  If the companies in question wanted to pay dividends out of those funds, they'd have to repatriate them into the US from the offshore holding companies & would inevitably incur US corporation tax on the resultant profits. So the cash only retains it's "full" value if the company can profitably invest it outside the US: if you think growth via R+D has peaked, then it's significantly less valuable! So how you choose to value the cash on hand depends very much on what you believe the future growth prospects of these companies via R+D or capital investment outside the US to be.
fleitz 14y ago
Yeah, it's slid so far they are trading at a PE of 12.63 instead of the much more respectable 190 that FB trades at. When you think about the world's most valuable company doubling profit year after year and your return on investment you shouldn't accept a mere 12, you should go for the gold with FB's 190, I mean they'd have to 10x their profit just to get to a PE of 19. Dumping a stock with a PE of 12.63 on track to double profits because it slid 3.8% is kind of advice you get from expert traders like Jim Cramer, he was so successful at trading that NBC offered him a show and he took it. This guy knows his stuff! The stock is seriously overvalued if Cramer announces a sell soon and everyone who reads this article dumps it you could be looking at a nice little Christmas present with AAPL at a PE of 9 or 10 just in time for tax loss selling.
- po 14y ago
  Most of the time, when I have heard people talking about it being doomed, it would have been a good time to back the truck up to the orchard and load up on AAPL. Usually my sell-sense starts going off when I hear Jim Cramer and other bozos talking about how hot a stock is. With AAPL I don't think that will ever happen. Furthermore it has never moved in a sane way with respect to the P/E ratio. Totally confounding.
- GuiA 14y ago
  I have no clue what you're talking about but I'd like to learn— are there any websites/books you recommend?
- prostoalex 14y ago
  PEs are reflective of past revenues. As this graph shows, tracing PE is no way to the riches http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=LWPE+Interactive#symbol=LWPE;range=2y http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=LWPE+Interactive#symbol=L...
- fauigerzigerk 14y ago
  I'm not optimistic on Apple in the long run, because so little of their revenue is recurring. They hit the jackpot with the iPhone, but once that euphoria ends either their sales or their margins will crash. But I don't think that time is now. People will be buying their stuff hand over fist for Christmas and the stock is cheap. Incredibly cheap actually, considering a fifth of their market cap is cash.
mlchild 14y ago
This is a fairly shallow article, but I suppose most investors do fairly shallow fundamental analysis. Aside from whether or not you believe in the company, the management team, the product line, growth opportunities in China, etc., the profit story is simply too compelling for investors to avoid. Zaky does a reasonable job summarizing (http://bullishcross.com/2012/10/apple-1000-why-its-time-to-buy/ http://bullishcross.com/2012/10/apple-1000-why-its-time-to-b...), but the essential point is that 160-180 million iPhones next year (conservative estimate) means $66 eps/share, which with a 15 P/E is $990. Even if you believe the unbelievably conservative P/E of 10 is appropriate (here's why that's nuts http://www.asymco.com/2012/10/12/what-is-apples-realized-pe-ratio/ http://www.asymco.com/2012/10/12/what-is-apples-realized-pe-...), you're still making a tidy 18% return over the next year. And if you believe there is any growth coming beyond the next fiscal year...
deleted 14y ago
[deleted]
Avshalom 14y ago
Don't Apple stocks historically sink for a quarter any time a new product is announced?
AlexMuir 14y ago
I've been thinking a lot about Apple recently. Here's a brain dump: 1. Apple cannot compete with their current strategy outside metropolitan areas - and that's most of the world. I'm in rural France at the moment. There is nowhere to buy anything Apple, expect the iPhone - I haven't seen a single Mac computer anywhere - in use or for sale. But you can't move in the supermarkets for Android tablets and PC laptops. And we're not talking 3rd world countries here. 2. Apple's rise has partly been caused by being ahead of the curve on technology, with a blockbuster launch every 4-5 years. iPod (storage, battery life), iPhone (touch screen, UI), iPad (touch screen). There is no evidence of a further blockbuster launch - I am not supportive of an Apple TV. Coolness has a lifespan. People get bored. I'm bored of the iPhone now. It's viable for me to switch to Android and so I will do so at some point. I don't want to have the same phone for the next 50 years. Apple is not in control of its manufacturing facilities. If we agree that Steve Jobs was right on a lot of things, then was he right to push for Apple to own and build its own factories? Out of battery.
- apl 14y ago
  > There is no evidence of a further blockbuster launch There wasn't any evidence preceding previous blockbuster launches either. That's precisely what made them "revolutionary": nobody was anticipating their respective successes. So your argument is a non-starter.
  - panacea 14y ago
    There wasn't any evidence Apple was working on the first iPhone before they announced it, but it was an obvious target for Apple to hit. I had a fake osX theme on my crappy Nokia and was hanging out for Apple to enter the fray. I can't think of anything they could 'revolutionize' in their own way anymore.
    - bad_user 14y ago
      There's always stuff to invent and reinvent. Apple is good at interfaces. They took the crappy phone design and delivered smartphones with friendlier interfaces. There's always room for improvement though. How about devices with no interface at all? Like devices that can read your mind or act on their own. And this is where I think the fundamental problem of Apple lies. Autonomous devices require a revolution in hardware and algorithms, not just merely building on top of other people's work ... Apple's revolution until now has been nothing more than mere evolution. Case in point: Google works on cars that can drive by themselves and on smart glasses. Apple doesn't work on anything similar, never did and anybody paying attention knew that Siri is going to be worse than the speech recognition that comes with Android.
Cbasedlifeform 14y ago
Face it: the global economy sucks. There are various types of crisis in the US, UK, EU, Japan, and China. Every government is desperate to raise money i.e. increase taxes (cf France's various recent disastrous forays in this area). So the point that Apple, Facebook, Google, Starbucks et al may have to pay higher corporate tax is a good one (and let's hope they do). More importantly for AAPL though is the generational shift, I think. People in their 20s (just), 30s, 40s know about the Apple 'cool' factor but on a recent trip to SE Asia I would guess 60% or more of the teens were using non-iPhones. (And NB smartphone usage in this group in Singapore is probably 90%+). The newspapers had multiple full-page ads every day for Android phones (paid for by the telcos I guess). And needless to say the Androids are far cheaper than the iPhone. Finally if the iPad mini is "good enough" for most people then it will cannabalise the full iPad sales. I don't foresee another blockbuster product rollout though I'd love to be surprised. I used to have some AAPL shares -- I sold at a tidy profit (though not at the peak) and now just observe from the sidelines and sleep better at night :) I just wish they would improve the working practices in China, or at least pay higher wages and take a bit less in profit.
- czhiddy 14y ago
  > People in their 20s (just), 30s, 40s know about the Apple 'cool' factor but on a recent trip to SE Asia I would guess 60% or more of the teens were using non-iPhones. I can't speak for the rest of Asia, but judging by my extended family, the Apple craze in mainland China is still pretty ferocious. A combination of the materialistic culture and view of Apple as a luxury brand often leads to situations like [1] and [2] popping up in the news. Of course, each country is different. Was it Indonesia where Blackberry had a 90% market share among the youth? [1] http://www.chinasmack.com/2012/stories/chinese-freshman-girl-demands-apple-iphone-ipad-macbook-3-piece-set-for-college.html http://www.chinasmack.com/2012/stories/chinese-freshman-girl... [2] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2126172/Chinese-boy-sells-kidney-buy-iPad-iPhone.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2126172/Chinese-boy-... > Finally if the iPad mini is "good enough" for most people then it will cannabalise the full iPad sales. This was the same argument against the iPod mini. As Apple has stated before, they'd much rather cannibalize their own products than have a competitor do it.
czhiddy 14y ago
Wall Street (among other people) has this belief that Apple products are a temporary fad. Their argument is that at some unspecified point in the future, popular sentiment will do a 180, and the company will fall off the face of the planet like they're the Crocs of the tech world. This completely ignores how the company built itself up - by making high quality products and pairing it with strong customer service. The built-up trust is similar to how you pay a little more to go to your favorite mechanic vs Jiffy Lube. Incidentally, I think this was a key reason Scott Forstall was let go. His slip ups on Siri and Maps (particularly) annoyed enough customers to the point where brand loyalty was damaged. See how much Jobs stressed the importance of the brand (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugqcXqTEVMA http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugqcXqTEVMA). This weakness is a great opportunity for other companies, but Microsoft seems to have fumbled a bit with Surface so far (judging by the reviews). Android manufacturers, as usual, release a dozen or so mediocre phones each year alongside their high quality flagship models, which doesn't do much to improve their image. "More wood behind fewer arrows" would certainly mean much stiffer competition for Apple.
- rorrr 14y ago
  Apple has many problems now. Android and Windows phones/tablets being a massive one. Android is now 75% of the new phones (as of Q3 of 2012), 41% of the tablet market. Google is eating Apple's lunch as we speak. Microsoft is about to take a bite of their pie as well. Another big problem is - Apple hasn't invented anything in a while. They are riding the old wave, doing only incremental changes. Their OS is super stale and is sooo far behind Android. They did increase the resolution of the tablets/phones, but they don't manufacture the screens, and so now everyone has high resolution displays. From my perspective, Apple is done, unless they come up with something new and exciting. They understand it too. That's why we see lawsuits instead of innovation.
  - arrrg 14y ago
    Does Apple need large market shares? Do they have to sell a phone to everyone? Do they even want to? Also, your line about Apple not having invented anything makes it pretty obvious that you know next to nothing about Apple’s modus operandi during the last decade. Apple does something really new every five years or so and spends the rest of the time polishing (i.e. making incremental changes). Apple was also always litigious. The lawsuits don’t have anything to do with anything. At the moment Apple’s biggest problem is that they can’t make as many iPhone 5s as the market demands. They let massive amounts of money on the table. That’s a problem, however not one that usually indicates a company being doomed.
z92 14y ago
With every month passing it's getting late for Apple to declare its next big thing. The next big thing should have already been here. Thinking about the next product to capture a new market overnight is what Jobs did best. And if Apple fails to find someone good enough to fill that place, it won't crash over night, but slowing decent like a glider plane for the lack of the upper thrust. After Jobs death, everyone was talking how the company isn't taking any hit from the market. While I was waiting to see two years forward in the future, wondering everyday whether it can come up with new product ideas like Jobs. If it had, then Apple's success was not dependent on Jobs. If it can't then Apple is the new Microsoft-after-Gates. Right now Apple is increasingly looking like Microsoft.
- JuDue 14y ago
  Harping back to Steve is silly. They could shuffle on as-is for years and still be OK, unless you interest lies only in doubling your money. Steve didn't have yearly "big things" It would be healthy for them to stabilise and lower expectations.
nicholassmith 14y ago
I'm reading 'Inside Apple' at the moment, and there's a line near the start that says (paraphrasing) "Apple views investors as an irritant to necessary evil". I'm sure whilst analysts pontificate on the prices going up and down and the tech community view it as a sign Apple is waning, the fact is they're selling more product and making more money than ever before. They're very much in a comfortable position, they make about $6bn in profit most quarters, that's just a silly number. Analysts might say Apple is on the wane, but they really don't seem to be at all. And for what it's worth, I can see iPhone/iPad sales staying consistent, because once you invest a reasonable sum into the ecosystem it's not like you're going to be able to walk away.

hoi 14y ago

With the UK tax figures for several companies including apple, where they only paid approx 2.5% in tax because most of the revenue recognition occurs in Ireland where they pay cheaper corporation tax, I guess this will have an impact for revenues for several companies going forward. Google are already in a dispute with France over this, and I would expect these tax loopholes to close int he future as Austerity hits the EU and each country looking for ways to boost tax income.

fauigerzigerk 14y ago
You probably mean profits not revenue. But the thing about raising taxes is that it opens an opportunity for other countries to benefit from having lower taxes without losing any tax revenue, because global companies will want to be there. At the end of the day, consumers will benefit from global tax competition ... as long as they stay healthy and young.
- hoi 14y ago
  Yeah, profits is what I meant. That;s what they are doing using the competitive tax structure of Ireland and recognizing all EU revenue in Ireland instead of the repective countries in which the product is bought. My assumption is that these loopholes will eventually close because they are being reported about and taxpayers in those countries will be disgruntled that a company only pays 2.5% of its profits in tax because it's recognizing the revenues in a different jurisdiction to which the product was bought.
pja 14y ago
If the companies in question wanted to pay dividends out of those funds, they'd have to repatriate them into the US from the offshore holding companies & would inevitably incur US corporation tax on the resultant profits. So the cash only retains it's "full" value if the company can profitably invest it outside the US: if you think growth via R+D has peaked, then it's significantly less valuable! So how you choose to value the cash on hand depends very much on what you believe the future growth prospects of these companies via R+D or capital investment outside the US to be.

fleitz 14y ago

Yeah, it's slid so far they are trading at a PE of 12.63 instead of the much more respectable 190 that FB trades at. When you think about the world's most valuable company doubling profit year after year and your return on investment you shouldn't accept a mere 12, you should go for the gold with FB's 190, I mean they'd have to 10x their profit just to get to a PE of 19. Dumping a stock with a PE of 12.63 on track to double profits because it slid 3.8% is kind of advice you get from expert traders like Jim Cramer, he was so successful at trading that NBC offered him a show and he took it. This guy knows his stuff! The stock is seriously overvalued if Cramer announces a sell soon and everyone who reads this article dumps it you could be looking at a nice little Christmas present with AAPL at a PE of 9 or 10 just in time for tax loss selling.

po 14y ago
Most of the time, when I have heard people talking about it being doomed, it would have been a good time to back the truck up to the orchard and load up on AAPL. Usually my sell-sense starts going off when I hear Jim Cramer and other bozos talking about how hot a stock is. With AAPL I don't think that will ever happen. Furthermore it has never moved in a sane way with respect to the P/E ratio. Totally confounding.
GuiA 14y ago
I have no clue what you're talking about but I'd like to learn— are there any websites/books you recommend?
prostoalex 14y ago
PEs are reflective of past revenues. As this graph shows, tracing PE is no way to the riches http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=LWPE+Interactive#symbol=LWPE;range=2y http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=LWPE+Interactive#symbol=L...
fauigerzigerk 14y ago
I'm not optimistic on Apple in the long run, because so little of their revenue is recurring. They hit the jackpot with the iPhone, but once that euphoria ends either their sales or their margins will crash. But I don't think that time is now. People will be buying their stuff hand over fist for Christmas and the stock is cheap. Incredibly cheap actually, considering a fifth of their market cap is cash.

mlchild 14y ago

This is a fairly shallow article, but I suppose most investors do fairly shallow fundamental analysis. Aside from whether or not you believe in the company, the management team, the product line, growth opportunities in China, etc., the profit story is simply too compelling for investors to avoid. Zaky does a reasonable job summarizing (http://bullishcross.com/2012/10/apple-1000-why-its-time-to-buy/ http://bullishcross.com/2012/10/apple-1000-why-its-time-to-b...), but the essential point is that 160-180 million iPhones next year (conservative estimate) means $66 eps/share, which with a 15 P/E is $990. Even if you believe the unbelievably conservative P/E of 10 is appropriate (here's why that's nuts http://www.asymco.com/2012/10/12/what-is-apples-realized-pe-ratio/ http://www.asymco.com/2012/10/12/what-is-apples-realized-pe-...), you're still making a tidy 18% return over the next year. And if you believe there is any growth coming beyond the next fiscal year...

deleted 14y ago

[deleted]

Avshalom 14y ago

Don't Apple stocks historically sink for a quarter any time a new product is announced?

AlexMuir 14y ago

I've been thinking a lot about Apple recently. Here's a brain dump: 1. Apple cannot compete with their current strategy outside metropolitan areas - and that's most of the world. I'm in rural France at the moment. There is nowhere to buy anything Apple, expect the iPhone - I haven't seen a single Mac computer anywhere - in use or for sale. But you can't move in the supermarkets for Android tablets and PC laptops. And we're not talking 3rd world countries here. 2. Apple's rise has partly been caused by being ahead of the curve on technology, with a blockbuster launch every 4-5 years. iPod (storage, battery life), iPhone (touch screen, UI), iPad (touch screen). There is no evidence of a further blockbuster launch - I am not supportive of an Apple TV. Coolness has a lifespan. People get bored. I'm bored of the iPhone now. It's viable for me to switch to Android and so I will do so at some point. I don't want to have the same phone for the next 50 years. Apple is not in control of its manufacturing facilities. If we agree that Steve Jobs was right on a lot of things, then was he right to push for Apple to own and build its own factories? Out of battery.

apl 14y ago
> There is no evidence of a further blockbuster launch There wasn't any evidence preceding previous blockbuster launches either. That's precisely what made them "revolutionary": nobody was anticipating their respective successes. So your argument is a non-starter.
- panacea 14y ago
  There wasn't any evidence Apple was working on the first iPhone before they announced it, but it was an obvious target for Apple to hit. I had a fake osX theme on my crappy Nokia and was hanging out for Apple to enter the fray. I can't think of anything they could 'revolutionize' in their own way anymore.
  - bad_user 14y ago
    There's always stuff to invent and reinvent. Apple is good at interfaces. They took the crappy phone design and delivered smartphones with friendlier interfaces. There's always room for improvement though. How about devices with no interface at all? Like devices that can read your mind or act on their own. And this is where I think the fundamental problem of Apple lies. Autonomous devices require a revolution in hardware and algorithms, not just merely building on top of other people's work ... Apple's revolution until now has been nothing more than mere evolution. Case in point: Google works on cars that can drive by themselves and on smart glasses. Apple doesn't work on anything similar, never did and anybody paying attention knew that Siri is going to be worse than the speech recognition that comes with Android.

Cbasedlifeform 14y ago

Face it: the global economy sucks. There are various types of crisis in the US, UK, EU, Japan, and China. Every government is desperate to raise money i.e. increase taxes (cf France's various recent disastrous forays in this area). So the point that Apple, Facebook, Google, Starbucks et al may have to pay higher corporate tax is a good one (and let's hope they do). More importantly for AAPL though is the generational shift, I think. People in their 20s (just), 30s, 40s know about the Apple 'cool' factor but on a recent trip to SE Asia I would guess 60% or more of the teens were using non-iPhones. (And NB smartphone usage in this group in Singapore is probably 90%+). The newspapers had multiple full-page ads every day for Android phones (paid for by the telcos I guess). And needless to say the Androids are far cheaper than the iPhone. Finally if the iPad mini is "good enough" for most people then it will cannabalise the full iPad sales. I don't foresee another blockbuster product rollout though I'd love to be surprised. I used to have some AAPL shares -- I sold at a tidy profit (though not at the peak) and now just observe from the sidelines and sleep better at night :) I just wish they would improve the working practices in China, or at least pay higher wages and take a bit less in profit.

czhiddy 14y ago
> People in their 20s (just), 30s, 40s know about the Apple 'cool' factor but on a recent trip to SE Asia I would guess 60% or more of the teens were using non-iPhones. I can't speak for the rest of Asia, but judging by my extended family, the Apple craze in mainland China is still pretty ferocious. A combination of the materialistic culture and view of Apple as a luxury brand often leads to situations like [1] and [2] popping up in the news. Of course, each country is different. Was it Indonesia where Blackberry had a 90% market share among the youth? [1] http://www.chinasmack.com/2012/stories/chinese-freshman-girl-demands-apple-iphone-ipad-macbook-3-piece-set-for-college.html http://www.chinasmack.com/2012/stories/chinese-freshman-girl... [2] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2126172/Chinese-boy-sells-kidney-buy-iPad-iPhone.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2126172/Chinese-boy-... > Finally if the iPad mini is "good enough" for most people then it will cannabalise the full iPad sales. This was the same argument against the iPod mini. As Apple has stated before, they'd much rather cannibalize their own products than have a competitor do it.

czhiddy 14y ago

Wall Street (among other people) has this belief that Apple products are a temporary fad. Their argument is that at some unspecified point in the future, popular sentiment will do a 180, and the company will fall off the face of the planet like they're the Crocs of the tech world. This completely ignores how the company built itself up - by making high quality products and pairing it with strong customer service. The built-up trust is similar to how you pay a little more to go to your favorite mechanic vs Jiffy Lube. Incidentally, I think this was a key reason Scott Forstall was let go. His slip ups on Siri and Maps (particularly) annoyed enough customers to the point where brand loyalty was damaged. See how much Jobs stressed the importance of the brand (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugqcXqTEVMA http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugqcXqTEVMA). This weakness is a great opportunity for other companies, but Microsoft seems to have fumbled a bit with Surface so far (judging by the reviews). Android manufacturers, as usual, release a dozen or so mediocre phones each year alongside their high quality flagship models, which doesn't do much to improve their image. "More wood behind fewer arrows" would certainly mean much stiffer competition for Apple.

rorrr 14y ago
Apple has many problems now. Android and Windows phones/tablets being a massive one. Android is now 75% of the new phones (as of Q3 of 2012), 41% of the tablet market. Google is eating Apple's lunch as we speak. Microsoft is about to take a bite of their pie as well. Another big problem is - Apple hasn't invented anything in a while. They are riding the old wave, doing only incremental changes. Their OS is super stale and is sooo far behind Android. They did increase the resolution of the tablets/phones, but they don't manufacture the screens, and so now everyone has high resolution displays. From my perspective, Apple is done, unless they come up with something new and exciting. They understand it too. That's why we see lawsuits instead of innovation.
- arrrg 14y ago
  Does Apple need large market shares? Do they have to sell a phone to everyone? Do they even want to? Also, your line about Apple not having invented anything makes it pretty obvious that you know next to nothing about Apple’s modus operandi during the last decade. Apple does something really new every five years or so and spends the rest of the time polishing (i.e. making incremental changes). Apple was also always litigious. The lawsuits don’t have anything to do with anything. At the moment Apple’s biggest problem is that they can’t make as many iPhone 5s as the market demands. They let massive amounts of money on the table. That’s a problem, however not one that usually indicates a company being doomed.

z92 14y ago

With every month passing it's getting late for Apple to declare its next big thing. The next big thing should have already been here. Thinking about the next product to capture a new market overnight is what Jobs did best. And if Apple fails to find someone good enough to fill that place, it won't crash over night, but slowing decent like a glider plane for the lack of the upper thrust. After Jobs death, everyone was talking how the company isn't taking any hit from the market. While I was waiting to see two years forward in the future, wondering everyday whether it can come up with new product ideas like Jobs. If it had, then Apple's success was not dependent on Jobs. If it can't then Apple is the new Microsoft-after-Gates. Right now Apple is increasingly looking like Microsoft.

JuDue 14y ago
Harping back to Steve is silly. They could shuffle on as-is for years and still be OK, unless you interest lies only in doubling your money. Steve didn't have yearly "big things" It would be healthy for them to stabilise and lower expectations.

nicholassmith 14y ago

I'm reading 'Inside Apple' at the moment, and there's a line near the start that says (paraphrasing) "Apple views investors as an irritant to necessary evil". I'm sure whilst analysts pontificate on the prices going up and down and the tech community view it as a sign Apple is waning, the fact is they're selling more product and making more money than ever before. They're very much in a comfortable position, they make about $6bn in profit most quarters, that's just a silly number. Analysts might say Apple is on the wane, but they really don't seem to be at all. And for what it's worth, I can see iPhone/iPad sales staying consistent, because once you invest a reasonable sum into the ecosystem it's not like you're going to be able to walk away.