A commenter over there mentioned that a similar phenomenon was noticed during the 2008 presidential election, and quoted John Delaney (Intrade founder, now dece

A commenter over there mentioned that a similar phenomenon was noticed during the 2008 presidential election, and quoted John Delaney (Intrade founder, now deceased): Mr. Delaney conceded there had been erratic behavior - including spikes in the direction of Mr. McCain and away from Barack Obama "by up to 10 points." And he said "trading that caused the unusual price movements and discrepancies was principally due to a single 'institutional' member on Intrade." But, after interviewing members of the institution involved and tracking its trades, Mr. Delaney wrote in an e-mail message on Saturday: "I do not believe based on our investigations and over seven years' experience in such matters that the trading on Intrade was designed or motivated to artificially inflate McCain’s chance of winning." http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/business/20predict.html http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/business/20predict.html