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If a prediction market is famous enough to affect an election, it will generally cost more than $1 million to manipulate. I doubt that voter turnout would have
by qq66 14y ago
If a prediction market is famous enough to affect an election, it will generally cost more than $1 million to manipulate. I doubt that voter turnout would have increased if Intrade had predicted a Romney win -- too few Americans know what Intrade even is.
- bodyfour 14y agoI'm sure all political reporters know what Intrade is. If you were going to spend money to move the market, those are the people you're most trying to influence. I'm still personally skeptical of the whole manipulation theory, however. It's probably just a combination of too many conservatives buying with their heart instead of their head, and too few active arbitrageurs taking them to the cleaners.