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Better hope not. If the AI bubble pops it’s going to make the dotcom bubble look like a tiny divot in the road.

by woeirua 7mo ago

starkeeper 7mo ago
How would this be a bad thing?
- SilverElfin 7mo ago
  I want to see these overly powerful tech oligarchs to fail too. But one issue is that all of us are tied to their performance to some extent. Our investments are exposed to them. Your 401k probably has funds that include them. When they fail, it hurts others too. It’s also why SpaceX wants to be included into index funds as soon as possible after they go public. I recall the rules may be revised to support this, meaning everyone who has money saved in those funds will automatically be tied to the fate of SpaceX.
- calvinmorrison 7mo ago
  Like New Caledonia the wealth of our nation has been pumped into a get rich scheme looking for a new world
- johnvanommen 7mo ago
  [dead]
- jen729w 7mo ago
  Because everyone's retirement depends on the stock market. If you're unlucky and your portfolio vests the day after a massive crash, that can have a very meaningful impact on the rest of your life.
  - emp17344 7mo ago
    If it’s a bubble, it has to pop sooner or later. It’s better if it pops now before growing even larger.
  - Ekaros 7mo ago
    Maybe that will make everyone to think what is going on with this retirement plan build on stock market growth and expectation there will be something to buy with that "wealth" in future...
cgio 7mo ago
We already have our jobs on the line with AI, right? How will a crash be worse in personal terms?
- falkensmaize 7mo ago
  There's a lot of people who think the only thing keeping us out of a serious recession or even depression is AI investment.
  - cgio 7mo ago
    I have an unsubstantiated understanding Ai investment is disproportionately capital intensive, and at least partially funded by self-fulfilling dreams of employment disappearing. Parts of the economy are already in recession and they would not mind not being alone in it.
elevation 7mo ago
The .COM bubble was more than a divot because .COMs in so many industries employed so many people. There was amazon.com, but also pets.com, lowermybills.com, gateway.com. But if our economy somehow loses access to AI (rationing due to wartime efforts? sabotage by a foreign nation? simply not enough grid power to turn them on at the price people are willing to pay?) I would probably need to hire more coders to get the equivalent work done.
- Spooky23 7mo ago
  AI is driving trades, materials, real estate, all sorts of downstream stuff. The rest of the economy is dead. Oracle is dead without OpenAI. Remember that unlike the dotcom, none of these companies are public. So when it pops, you’ll see private credit and PE funds implode, which could bring down banks with unhedged exposure. The headlines talk about JP Morgan (which likely has the risk managed), but regional banks got into that nature in the last couple of years in a big way.
  - vaginaphobic 7mo ago
    [dead]
- mjd 7mo ago
  Did amazon.com go bust? Seems like I heard they were still in business as of a couple of years ago at least.
  - elevation 7mo ago
    The point was that Amazon wasn't independent from the frenzied, leveraged land grab that characterized the .COM bubble. Like many other companies, they were hiring aggressively until the bubble burst. Whether or not the companies went bust, a lot of people lost their jobs in a short time.
DesiLurker 7mo ago
why? its all private money funding AI at the moment, sure some data centre reality companies would go belly up but you will be surprised to find out how much of it is big headlines and very little action. there is a lot of installations and GPUs not yet brought online but marked as sold because of .. well physical world delays. Let me put it this way, IF AI is a bubble then I'd like it to go bust asap instead of dragging along and going public and then us discovering BS/creative accounting revenue in S1 filings. by then it would be much worse. Right now VCs and PE firms will absorb it all. The thing with dot-com was that there was actual public market corruption & euphoria. that caused the bust painful for everybody. RN its bigtech & PE how has heavy cash reserver and margins to bun through. I'd much rather have them take it then average 401k.
- esseph 7mo ago
  > The thing with dot-com was that there was actual public market corruption & euphoria. Just like now, the financial cup game is insane. Commiting money to a company that plans on doing a thing if they can get another company to do a thing and then that company is leveraging those cumulative possibilities in its own wager. The speculation is out of control.
mikeweiss 7mo ago
Of course it's going to pop!
danaris 7mo ago
The only alternative is to keep feeding the bubble deliberately, while knowing that it's a bubble. And no bubble can last forever. And the longer they go, and the larger they get, the worse the fallout is when they finally pop.

Better hope not. If the AI bubble pops it’s going to make the dotcom bubble look like a tiny divot in the road.

by woeirua 7mo ago

Better hope not. If the AI bubble pops it’s going to make the dotcom bubble look like a tiny divot in the road.

starkeeper 7mo ago

How would this be a bad thing?

SilverElfin 7mo ago
I want to see these overly powerful tech oligarchs to fail too. But one issue is that all of us are tied to their performance to some extent. Our investments are exposed to them. Your 401k probably has funds that include them. When they fail, it hurts others too. It’s also why SpaceX wants to be included into index funds as soon as possible after they go public. I recall the rules may be revised to support this, meaning everyone who has money saved in those funds will automatically be tied to the fate of SpaceX.
calvinmorrison 7mo ago
Like New Caledonia the wealth of our nation has been pumped into a get rich scheme looking for a new world
johnvanommen 7mo ago
[dead]
jen729w 7mo ago
Because everyone's retirement depends on the stock market. If you're unlucky and your portfolio vests the day after a massive crash, that can have a very meaningful impact on the rest of your life.
- emp17344 7mo ago
  If it’s a bubble, it has to pop sooner or later. It’s better if it pops now before growing even larger.
- Ekaros 7mo ago
  Maybe that will make everyone to think what is going on with this retirement plan build on stock market growth and expectation there will be something to buy with that "wealth" in future...

cgio 7mo ago

We already have our jobs on the line with AI, right? How will a crash be worse in personal terms?

falkensmaize 7mo ago
There's a lot of people who think the only thing keeping us out of a serious recession or even depression is AI investment.
- cgio 7mo ago
  I have an unsubstantiated understanding Ai investment is disproportionately capital intensive, and at least partially funded by self-fulfilling dreams of employment disappearing. Parts of the economy are already in recession and they would not mind not being alone in it.

elevation 7mo ago

The .COM bubble was more than a divot because .COMs in so many industries employed so many people. There was amazon.com, but also pets.com, lowermybills.com, gateway.com. But if our economy somehow loses access to AI (rationing due to wartime efforts? sabotage by a foreign nation? simply not enough grid power to turn them on at the price people are willing to pay?) I would probably need to hire more coders to get the equivalent work done.

Spooky23 7mo ago
AI is driving trades, materials, real estate, all sorts of downstream stuff. The rest of the economy is dead. Oracle is dead without OpenAI. Remember that unlike the dotcom, none of these companies are public. So when it pops, you’ll see private credit and PE funds implode, which could bring down banks with unhedged exposure. The headlines talk about JP Morgan (which likely has the risk managed), but regional banks got into that nature in the last couple of years in a big way.
- vaginaphobic 7mo ago
  [dead]
mjd 7mo ago
Did amazon.com go bust? Seems like I heard they were still in business as of a couple of years ago at least.
- elevation 7mo ago
  The point was that Amazon wasn't independent from the frenzied, leveraged land grab that characterized the .COM bubble. Like many other companies, they were hiring aggressively until the bubble burst. Whether or not the companies went bust, a lot of people lost their jobs in a short time.

DesiLurker 7mo ago

why? its all private money funding AI at the moment, sure some data centre reality companies would go belly up but you will be surprised to find out how much of it is big headlines and very little action. there is a lot of installations and GPUs not yet brought online but marked as sold because of .. well physical world delays. Let me put it this way, IF AI is a bubble then I'd like it to go bust asap instead of dragging along and going public and then us discovering BS/creative accounting revenue in S1 filings. by then it would be much worse. Right now VCs and PE firms will absorb it all. The thing with dot-com was that there was actual public market corruption & euphoria. that caused the bust painful for everybody. RN its bigtech & PE how has heavy cash reserver and margins to bun through. I'd much rather have them take it then average 401k.

esseph 7mo ago
> The thing with dot-com was that there was actual public market corruption & euphoria. Just like now, the financial cup game is insane. Commiting money to a company that plans on doing a thing if they can get another company to do a thing and then that company is leveraging those cumulative possibilities in its own wager. The speculation is out of control.

mikeweiss 7mo ago

Of course it's going to pop!

danaris 7mo ago

The only alternative is to keep feeding the bubble deliberately, while knowing that it's a bubble. And no bubble can last forever. And the longer they go, and the larger they get, the worse the fallout is when they finally pop.