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$147 in July 2008 had the purchasing power of ~$218 today [1]. [1] https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calcula

$147 in July 2008 had the purchasing power of ~$218 today [1]. [1] https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

selectodude 8mo ago
Goldman Sachs has been sandbagging their crude forecasts so hilariously that I'm convinced they're frontrunning their customers.
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
  Do they meaningfully deviate from their peers?
  - selectodude 8mo ago
    Not really. It's just that the divergence in price analysis coming out of banks vs the what people in the oil industry are saying is just so ridiculous that I refuse to believe that the hotshot analysts at GS/JPM are that ignorant.
    - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
      > divergence in price analysis coming out of banks vs the what people in the oil industry are saying Source for a consensus from oil? The crack spread shows refiners pricing in higher prices [1]. If the domestic refiners and producers can’t agree, why is the homogenous opinion of the banks a conspiracy? [1] https://rbnenergy.com/market-data/3-2-1-crack-spread https://rbnenergy.com/market-data/3-2-1-crack-spread
      - selectodude 8mo ago
        The source is personal knowledge through friends in O&G. SE Asia is going to run out of oil by the end of April. Even if the war ended tomorrow and the strait opened up again, they will continue to be out of oil for months. US is insulated from practical supply concerns but we’re gonna be paying the price.
missedthecue 8mo ago
in retrospect, the american obsession and mental sensitivity to gas prices is very curious. The average national gas price in 2008 was about $3.50 which is almost what it is now in 2026. And being a commodity product sold per gallon, there's obviously no shrinkflation or enshittification going on. It's actually remarkably stable in the face of almost 20 years of steady broader inflation.
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
  > the american obsession and mental sensitivity to gas prices is very curious It strikes me as sensible. DRAM being cheaper over decades doesn’t negate the impact of recent price hikes.
  - missedthecue 8mo ago
    Well it's not just recent price increases. Any time gasoline goes above $4, congress is at risk of being flipped (completely independent of the current party in control).
    - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
      > Any time gasoline goes above $4, congress is at risk of being flipped Inflation is a bitch. It’s also been the ruin of republics since at least the Romans, possibly sooner.
      - missedthecue 8mo ago
        I don't think you understood my comment.
master_crab 8mo ago
Also adding: the spike in 2008 was transient and partially juiced by a weak dollar. Unfortunately, we will probably get no respite this time around. At the current geopolitical trajectory, I also doubt $147 is anywhere near the limit of where oil is going.
jltsiren 8mo ago
$147 was ~€95 in July 2008, which corresponds to ~€140 today. Which would be ~$160. And if you choose a third currency, you will get a third price. Long-term measurements of value are kind of weird, as your unit of measurement can gain and lose value relative to the units other people are using.
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
  The currency is less fundamentally meaningful than the group of purchasers buying their basket of goods. > Long-term measurements of value are kind of weird They are worthless. Best case, you’re asking a traveler problem. Does an American tourist rejecting a local Thai delicacy render it worthless? Of course not. They’re different purchasers. Similarly, trying to compare pricing preferences across centuries is borderline voodoo—you’re doing spherical-cow math.

$147 in July 2008 had the purchasing power of ~$218 today [1]. [1] https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

selectodude 8mo ago

Goldman Sachs has been sandbagging their crude forecasts so hilariously that I'm convinced they're frontrunning their customers.

JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
Do they meaningfully deviate from their peers?
- selectodude 8mo ago
  Not really. It's just that the divergence in price analysis coming out of banks vs the what people in the oil industry are saying is just so ridiculous that I refuse to believe that the hotshot analysts at GS/JPM are that ignorant.
  - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
    > divergence in price analysis coming out of banks vs the what people in the oil industry are saying Source for a consensus from oil? The crack spread shows refiners pricing in higher prices [1]. If the domestic refiners and producers can’t agree, why is the homogenous opinion of the banks a conspiracy? [1] https://rbnenergy.com/market-data/3-2-1-crack-spread https://rbnenergy.com/market-data/3-2-1-crack-spread
    - selectodude 8mo ago
      The source is personal knowledge through friends in O&G. SE Asia is going to run out of oil by the end of April. Even if the war ended tomorrow and the strait opened up again, they will continue to be out of oil for months. US is insulated from practical supply concerns but we’re gonna be paying the price.

missedthecue 8mo ago

in retrospect, the american obsession and mental sensitivity to gas prices is very curious. The average national gas price in 2008 was about $3.50 which is almost what it is now in 2026. And being a commodity product sold per gallon, there's obviously no shrinkflation or enshittification going on. It's actually remarkably stable in the face of almost 20 years of steady broader inflation.

JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
> the american obsession and mental sensitivity to gas prices is very curious It strikes me as sensible. DRAM being cheaper over decades doesn’t negate the impact of recent price hikes.
- missedthecue 8mo ago
  Well it's not just recent price increases. Any time gasoline goes above $4, congress is at risk of being flipped (completely independent of the current party in control).
  - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
    > Any time gasoline goes above $4, congress is at risk of being flipped Inflation is a bitch. It’s also been the ruin of republics since at least the Romans, possibly sooner.
    - missedthecue 8mo ago
      I don't think you understood my comment.

master_crab 8mo ago

Also adding: the spike in 2008 was transient and partially juiced by a weak dollar. Unfortunately, we will probably get no respite this time around. At the current geopolitical trajectory, I also doubt $147 is anywhere near the limit of where oil is going.

jltsiren 8mo ago

$147 was ~€95 in July 2008, which corresponds to ~€140 today. Which would be ~$160. And if you choose a third currency, you will get a third price. Long-term measurements of value are kind of weird, as your unit of measurement can gain and lose value relative to the units other people are using.

JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
The currency is less fundamentally meaningful than the group of purchasers buying their basket of goods. > Long-term measurements of value are kind of weird They are worthless. Best case, you’re asking a traveler problem. Does an American tourist rejecting a local Thai delicacy render it worthless? Of course not. They’re different purchasers. Similarly, trying to compare pricing preferences across centuries is borderline voodoo—you’re doing spherical-cow math.