Ha! I've been thinking about this pretty hard and talking to a colleague at work, and changed my mind. You're right... he's not making predictions, he's making

Ha! I've been thinking about this pretty hard and talking to a colleague at work, and changed my mind. You're right... he's not making predictions, he's making forecasts. And you can't say that a forecast was "right" or "wrong" based on which side of the forecast any one result landed. Assuming the n isn't just too small to say anything, the only two reasonable conclusions to choose between are a) in this set of events, the outcome in EVERY state happened to be from more likely side of the forecast, which together is unlikely, or b) Nate's forecasts are inaccurate, being skewed much more to the middle than they ought to be. Also, "all over this thread" was just meant to imply that I noticed the same comment from you more than once. Sorry for not being more specific.