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Iran Is Not Venezuela – and Nobody in the White House Seems to Know That
- coldtea 7mo agoIt's not like they know much about Venezuela either. They'd probably as lost to the history regarding the history of UK or Germany, or for that matter, the US itself. What they know is they have power, and they can bomb others with impunity. Even if it goes bad, it's not their asses that will have a problem. They'll go on having nice corporate positions waiting for them.
- ndsipa_pomu 7mo agoI think this going to go very badly for the US. Best scenario is that Trump realises or is told that it will be immensely expensive and unpopular and will perform a humiliating cease fire. I can see Trump not wanting to do that and instead the blockade of the strait will continue with disastrous effect on the world economy.
- tocs3 7mo agoI could also see other regions(China, the EU) making deals with Iran and the US stuck with no good out.
- AnimalMuppet 7mo agoWe're not going to get the best case scenario. We're going to get close to the worst. For political reasons, Trump has to appear to win, and Iran has to appear to not let Trump win. This makes it impossible to find a halting condition, and so the war continues until one regime or the other falls. (The least dramatic way that could happen is for Congress to pass a War Powers resolution, which effectively ends Trump's ability to use the military for this. But that won't happen until at least after the midterms, if then. So we're stuck in this for a while because of the logic of both countries' internal politics.)
- ndsipa_pomu 7mo agoOne out would be for Trump to lie about having met all the objectives (not that anyone seems to know what the objectives are) and then stop the aggression. His lies would likely be accepted by the U.S. media and MAGA supporters and meanwhile the rest of the world would recognise that Iran made a mockery of the USA.
- cromka 7mo agoAmerican Exceptionslism is getting a reality check receb
- twright 7mo agoThis was as good read and articulates many of the "what about this" sort of questions I've been having around the news. This clip (https://youtu.be/smemFVe0l5E?t=5418 https://youtu.be/smemFVe0l5E?t=5418) of Tucker Carlson interviewing Senator Ted Cruz from nine-months ago popped in my head reading this. Invading Iran has been some US conservative dream for decades and now that all the people who have been telling them it's a bad idea are gone they're pushing ahead, consequences, history, and the rest of the world be damned.
- remarkEon 7mo agoI think you're reading too much into that. Evangelical Dispensationalism is what is the driving force behind the particular brand of Neo-conservatism that Ted Cruz espouses.
- remarkEon 7mo ago[flagged]
- ndsipa_pomu 7mo agoIt didn't seem to me like AI slop, though there are a lot of em-dashes.
- remarkEon 7mo agoThe giveaway is the frequency of the "it's not X, it's Y" construction, and the rest of the portfolio from this author's substack.
- ndsipa_pomu 7mo agoThanks, however I can't find any instance of "it's not" in the article. This is the first time I've encountered the "author", but the rest of the substack articles seem to be mainly about history and Egypt. (As I submitted the link and I'm firmly anti-AI, I'd like to get a good grasp on recognising AI slop)
- amai 7mo agoSuccessful, fast, cheap: Only two of these features can be realized for a war at the same time.