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Before calling it "the worst", I'd like more detail on how to do the comparison with the oil crises of the 1970's. My guess is that modern economies might be so

Before calling it "the worst", I'd like more detail on how to do the comparison with the oil crises of the 1970's. My guess is that modern economies might be somewhat less oil-dependent than they were then, because the alternatives are more developed.

UncleOxidant 7mo ago
They are more developed, sure, and the US (from a US centric view) is producing a lot of oil now. However, consider that pretty much all of the goods you see in the supermarket got there via diesel (trains, semi-trucks). The percentage of semi-trucks operating on electricity is still miniscule at this point. Air transport? All petroleum. Consider also other things like fertilizers - we're heavily dependent on nitrogen fertilizers derived from petroleum and planting season in the northern hemisphere is starting right about now. Yes we're producing a lot more electricity with renewables, but demand is also up.
- IsTom 7mo ago
  Oil going through Hormuz is 20%, not 80% of global supply. It's true that demand is pretty inelastic, but it's not like it can't be cut at all.
  - UncleOxidant 7mo ago
    Who mentioned 80%? During the 1973–74 Arab oil embargo, the disruption removed approximately 4.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) from the market, which constituted about 7% of the global oil supply at the time. This disruption significantly impacted global supplies. 20% is a lot more than 7%. This could be worse than 1973-74. As a 10year-old in 1973 I remember spending a lot of time in the backseat of the station wagon as we were waiting line line for gas. For context, during the first COVID spring (March-June 2020) oil demand fell by 20%. Because nobody was driving or flying anywhere. That's what it took to cut 20%.
    - poopinurmouth 7mo ago
      [flagged]
      - square_usual 7mo ago
        Yeah, and that's why gas prices in the US have not changed at all in the past month!
    - kvuj 7mo ago
      And yet we are a lot more globalized than in the 1970s. Ressources can be diverted at a much quicker rate with a lot more agility.
      - UncleOxidant 7mo ago
        We're going to find out how much agility exists in the system (under perturbation). In the meantime countries in Asia are scrambling for supply.
      - thelastgallon 7mo ago
        Yes, couldn't make either face masks or toilet paper during covid. Most people will find out how fragile everything is with idiot MBAs optimizing just-in-time for better quarterly reports!
        c1sc0 7mo ago
        Good! Then a much-needed correction in behavior will follow.
        abenga 7mo ago
        If the Covid shutdown didn't trigger this, what makes you think this time it's different?
        deleted 7mo ago
        [deleted]
reaperducer 7mo ago
Before calling it "the worst", I'd like more detail on how to do the comparison with the oil crises of the 1970's. There's a graph in today's (March 28/29) Wall Street Journal that does exactly that, and shows that what's happening now is both currently slightly worse than the 1970's, and the worst oil shock in history. And remember that this isn't over yet.

UncleOxidant 7mo ago

They are more developed, sure, and the US (from a US centric view) is producing a lot of oil now. However, consider that pretty much all of the goods you see in the supermarket got there via diesel (trains, semi-trucks). The percentage of semi-trucks operating on electricity is still miniscule at this point. Air transport? All petroleum. Consider also other things like fertilizers - we're heavily dependent on nitrogen fertilizers derived from petroleum and planting season in the northern hemisphere is starting right about now. Yes we're producing a lot more electricity with renewables, but demand is also up.

IsTom 7mo ago
Oil going through Hormuz is 20%, not 80% of global supply. It's true that demand is pretty inelastic, but it's not like it can't be cut at all.
- UncleOxidant 7mo ago
  Who mentioned 80%? During the 1973–74 Arab oil embargo, the disruption removed approximately 4.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) from the market, which constituted about 7% of the global oil supply at the time. This disruption significantly impacted global supplies. 20% is a lot more than 7%. This could be worse than 1973-74. As a 10year-old in 1973 I remember spending a lot of time in the backseat of the station wagon as we were waiting line line for gas. For context, during the first COVID spring (March-June 2020) oil demand fell by 20%. Because nobody was driving or flying anywhere. That's what it took to cut 20%.
  - poopinurmouth 7mo ago
    [flagged]
    - square_usual 7mo ago
      Yeah, and that's why gas prices in the US have not changed at all in the past month!
  - kvuj 7mo ago
    And yet we are a lot more globalized than in the 1970s. Ressources can be diverted at a much quicker rate with a lot more agility.
    - UncleOxidant 7mo ago
      We're going to find out how much agility exists in the system (under perturbation). In the meantime countries in Asia are scrambling for supply.
    - thelastgallon 7mo ago
      Yes, couldn't make either face masks or toilet paper during covid. Most people will find out how fragile everything is with idiot MBAs optimizing just-in-time for better quarterly reports!
      - c1sc0 7mo ago
        Good! Then a much-needed correction in behavior will follow.
        abenga 7mo ago
        If the Covid shutdown didn't trigger this, what makes you think this time it's different?
        deleted 7mo ago
        [deleted]

reaperducer 7mo ago

Before calling it "the worst", I'd like more detail on how to do the comparison with the oil crises of the 1970's. There's a graph in today's (March 28/29) Wall Street Journal that does exactly that, and shows that what's happening now is both currently slightly worse than the 1970's, and the worst oil shock in history. And remember that this isn't over yet.