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>Predicting an election based on polls is an entirely different matter. The election will turn out one way or another. If the same people voted for President 10
by shardling 14y ago
>Predicting an election based on polls is an entirely different matter. The election will turn out one way or another. If the same people voted for President 100 times without an external factor interfering differently across samples, the outcome would be the same every time.
I'm glad someone pointed this out, since I think it gets obscured a bit in most discussion of 538's statistics.
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- erichocean 14y agoI don't think people are that deterministic. There's still internal factors that could cause them to change their vote; not everyone has everything 100% decided when they step in the polling booth. But yeah, it'd be pretty close.