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The OP said, "Nate Silver correctly predicted every single state" which is mistaken. His model is not designed to make predictions like "50/50" and "49/50" and
by pseut 14y ago
The OP said, "Nate Silver correctly predicted every single state" which is mistaken. His model is not designed to make predictions like "50/50" and "49/50" and he never claims to make those predictions, so I honestly don't know what you mean by, 'we can say that somebody "nails" a prediction through both specificity and repetition. Nate had a modest amount of both.'
- btilly 14y agoFor every state he listed which direction he thought it would go, and an associated probability. Every state went the direction that he thought it would go.