7 ms·

We won't be in a supply crunch forever. We'll have a demand crunch. The demand of powerful consumer hardware will shrink so much that producing them will lose t

• TeMPOraL 7mo ago
  > People who are willing to drop $20k on a computer might not be affected much tho. They probably won't, but those willing to drop $3-10k will be if the consumer and data-center computing diverge at the architectural level. It's the classical hollowing out the middle - most of the offerings end up in a race-to-the-bottom chasing volume of price-sensitive customers, the quality options lose economies of scale and disappear, and the high-end becomes increasingly bespoke/pricey, or splits off into a distinct market with an entirely different type of customers (here: DC vs. individuals).
• molszanski 7mo ago
  > We won't be in a supply crunch forever. This what always happens in capitalism. Scarcity is almost always followed by glut
  • drecked 7mo ago
    I don’t believe we are seeing the investments necessary that would indicate this will happen. Memory makers, for example, have sold out their inventory for several years, but instead of investing to manufacture more, they’re shutting down their consumer divisions. They’re just transferring their consumer supply to their B2B (read AI) supply instead. Thats likely because they don’t expect this demand to last past a few years.
    • bitmasher9 7mo ago
      If the demand lasts for a few years, I’m doubtful that all of the consumer capacity will come back.
      • CamperBob2 7mo ago
        Consumer demand likely depends on how local models end up working out. Nothing else really needs serious local computing power anymore. My guess is that even high-end games will probably stagnate for a while. Many users will not want to risk their privacy, data, and workflow on someone else's rapidly-enshittifying AI cloud model. Right now we don't have much choice, but there are signs of progress.
        • bitmasher9 7mo ago
          High level games are far from stagnating, when viewed from usable performance. Many new games cannot run max settings, 4k, 120hz on any modern gpus. We probably need to hit 8k before we max out on the returns higher resolution can provide. Not to mention most game devs are targeting an install base of $500 6 year old consumer hardware, in a world where the 5090 exists.
          • CamperBob2 7mo ago
            That's what I mean by stagnating... most players already can't run with max settings, or even close to them. From the developers' point of view there's not much point raising the bar any higher right now, while the best GPU hardware is so far out of reach of your average PC gamer.
        • HappMacDonald 7mo ago
          > Many users will not want to risk How "Many users" though? I would argue that the segment of the market whose purchases incentivize personal responsibility on their PCs is outweighed by the segment of the market blowing their disposable income on tablets and smartphones who just want things to work and want whatever they see other people using on social media. We both know which segment of the market the large companies want to win that battle. They want to sell rented compute resources through nothing but impossible-to-locally-administrate devices where every sensor spies on you and it's impossible to store any data or documents locally, let alone privately. Even One Drive is pushing hard to literally erase your hard drive and only host your documents on their servers.
    • fmajid 7mo ago
      They have seen boom and bust cycles previously and are understandably wary of expanding capacity for expected demand that may fizzle. If they stay too conservative, China’s CXMT is chomping at the bit to eat their lunch, backed by the Chinese government, but that’s not going to help until late 2027 at best.
    • landl0rd 7mo ago
      How much capital would you invest in a capacity expansion for a trend that may or may not yet be durable? Now, how much would you invest when there are two major state-backed chinese entities that essentially aren't allowed to go bankrupt and have infinity money are competing with you?
  • Animats 7mo ago
    Not always. Try to buy a reasonably priced car or truck, with a price no higher than the last 20 years of inflation applied to a vehicle price from 20 years ago.
    • addaon 7mo ago
      A 2006 Miata started at $21k. A 2026 starts at $30.4K. This is an increase of 45%, less than the 61%-ish official inflation numbers over that time period. This is not unique.
• m3nu 7mo ago
  My bet is that phone hardware will be used more and more in mini PCs and laptops keeping the cost down and volume up. We see it with Apple and many Chinese mini PC makers I looked at.
  • Lord-Jobo 7mo ago
    Unified hardware helps some and hurts some. See: same gpus for gaming and for AI.
  • riskable 7mo ago
    If this ends up being true, desktop Linux adoption might make inroads. Windows apps run like crap on ARM and no one is bothering to make ARM builds of their software.
    • CamperBob2 7mo ago
      Because ARM Windows is locked down tightly. The same will interfere with Linux adoption on similar hardware.
  • bit1993 7mo ago
    All we need is for HDMI to be unlocked so it works on phones, or maybe VGA adapters that work on phones. And a way to "sideload" our own apps. Hackers please make this happen.
    • kps 7mo ago
      Some modern phones do DisplayPort over USB C.
      • xerxes901 7mo ago
        I plugged my iPhone 16 into my usb-C docking station the other day to charge it and was pretty surprised to discover it just started mirroring my phone screen. Keyboard worked too!
• close04 7mo ago
  > We'll have a demand crunch This is what I'm afraid of. As more stuff moves to the cloud helped in part by the current prices of HW, the demand for consumer hardware will drop. This will keep turning the vicious cycle of rising consumer HW prices and more moves to the cloud. I can already see Nvidia rubbing their hands together in expectation of the massive influx of customers to their cloud gaming platform. If a GPU is so expensive, you move to a rental model and the subsequent drop in demand will make GPUs even more expensive. They're far from the only ones with dollar signs in their eyes, between the money and total control over customers this future could bring. Being entirely reliant on someone else's software and hardware is a bleak thought for a person used to some degree of independence and self sufficiency in the tech world.
  • HKH2 7mo ago
    > I can already see Nvidia rubbing their hands together in expectation of the massive influx of customers to their cloud gaming platform. Roblox is not popular because of its graphics. Younger gamers care more about having fun than having an immersive experience.
    • foobarian 7mo ago
      I love it when I get my Robloxhead daughter to test drive some of the games I play on my 5090 box. "Ooooh these graphics are unreal" "Can we stop for just a moment and admire this grass" :-D
    • hombre_fatal 7mo ago
      Yeah, this gamer conspiracy theory never made sense to me. Also, if gamers demand infinitely improving graphics so much that they would rather pay for cloud gaming than relax their expectations and be happy with, say, current gen graphics, then that is more a claim about modern self-pwned gamer behavior than megacorp conspiracy. But I don't buy that either. The biggest games on Steam Charts and Twitch aren't AAA RTX 5090 games.
      • balamatom 7mo ago
• bparsons 7mo ago
  The problem is that there is a very large incentive for three large companies to corner the market on computing components, forcing consumers to rent access instead of owning.
  • overfeed 7mo ago
    Chinese companies, starting with CXMT will own the consumer segment: until they are sanctioned/banned in the US. The rest of the world will be fine, but consumer desktop computing in the US will be akin to the cars in Cuba.
• random3 7mo ago
  Apple just launched a $600 amazing laptop and the top models have massive performance. What are we talking about here?
  • EvanAnderson 7mo ago
    I don't think personal computers will go away, but I think the era of "put it together yourself" commodity PC parts is likely coming to an end. I think we're going to see manufacturers back out of that space as demand decreases. Part selection will become more sparse. That will drive further contraction as the market dries up. Buying boxed motherboards, CPUs, video cards, etc, will still exist, but the prices will never recover back to the "golden age". The large PC builders (Dell, HP, Lenovo) will continue down the road of cost reduction and proprietary parts. For the vast majority of people pre-packaged machines from the "big 3" are good enough. (Obviously, Apple will continue to Apple, too.) I think bespoke commodity PCs will go the route, pricing wise, of machines like the Raptor Talos machines. Edit: For a lot of people the fully customized bespoke PC experience is preferred. I used to be that person. I also get why that doesn't seem like a big deal. I've been a "Dell laptop as a daily driver" user for >20 years now. My two home servers are just Dell server machines, too. I got tired of screwing around with hardware and the specs Dell provided were close enough to what I wanted.
    • QuiEgo 7mo ago
      There are upsides here as well! I think of things like the NUC or Mac Mini - ATX is from 1995, I'm hopeful computers will become nicer things as we trend away from the bucket-o-parts model. I'm very excited about the Steam Machine for the reasons you mention - I want to buy a system, not a loose collection of parts that kind-of-sort-of implement some standard to the point that they probably work together.
      • tavavex 7mo ago
        What are the upsides? You only listed a few things that you like, but not why they should take over all parts of the PC market. The only factor I can think of is size, but those small all-in-one computers are already widely available now without the need to hollow out the custom PC market. There's nothing wrong with ATX or having interchangeable components. An established standard means that small companies can start manufacturing components more easily and provide more competition. If you turn PCs into prepackaged proprietary monoliths, expect even fewer players on the market than we have now, in addition to a complete lack of repairability and upgradability. When you can't pick and choose the parts, you let the manufacturer dictate what you're allowed to buy in what bundles, what spare parts they may sell to you (if any) and what prices you will pay for any of these things. Even if you're not building custom PCs yourself, the availability of all these individual components is putting an intrinsic check on what all-in-one manufacturers can reasonably charge you.
• BizarroLand 7mo ago
  If they choke the consumer PC long enough the segment will die
  • AnthonyMouse 7mo ago
    That's the theory but there seems like an obvious problem with it: The x64 desktop and server CPUs are basically the same designs as each other and they're selling plenty of servers, so they're going to keep designing new ones. Meanwhile people who can't afford new systems because of high prices don't buy them, but that only creates pent up demand while people continue to use their existing systems. Then as soon as RAM prices get back to what they used to be, all the people who have been wanting a new PC can suddenly afford one again and instead of having below average sales they get catch-up demand.