With enough cash on the line, humans are very resourceful at manipulating outcomes. Humans already control the weather: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_see

With enough cash on the line, humans are very resourceful at manipulating outcomes. Humans already control the weather: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_seeding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_seeding. We already have an example of humans sabotaging the measurement of weather: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41684440 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41684440. Two ranchers sabotaged weather monitoring stations in order to fraudulently collect millions in drought insurance. One of the farmhands involved ended up dead. And we have an example of prediction markets attempting to manipulate reporting of events: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47397822 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47397822. I have a hard time believing weather prediction markets will be net beneficial. The incentive for sabotage & manipulation up and down the chain seems likely to lead to worse weather predictions overall.