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The real power in prediction markets is creating a market for what you want to occur - it's a tangible method to leverage hyperstition. If you want Polymarket
by kelseyfrog 7mo ago
The real power in prediction markets is creating a market for what you want to occur - it's a tangible method to leverage hyperstition.
If you want Polymarket to no longer exist, then simply create a pool for "Polymarket will no longer exist by Jan 1st 2027" on Kalshi, pump the price, and wait for one of these whales to do the job of making it come true for you. When done right, you get the satisfaction of the thing happening, and all of the ROI for entering on the ground floor.
Rinse and repeat and you no longer have to sit by the sidelines and view world events as things that unfold without your input. You can be an active participant in making history the way you want it.
- mcmcmc 7mo agoSo are you advocating for the idea that the wealthy should be able to control history then, by nature of having the largest amount of betting capital?
- kelseyfrog 7mo agoI'm arguing for taking advantage of this before you can't.
- mcmcmc 7mo agoPeople who aren’t sociopaths might argue no one should be taking advantage of this, and that the people behind these services should be in prison
- senordevnyc 7mo ago“People who disagree with me are sociopaths” doesn’t have the persuasive power you seem to imagine.
- mcmcmc 7mo agoStrawmen aren’t particularly persuasive either. If I said “people who think murder is okay are sociopaths” would you have a problem?
- skyyler 7mo agoMurder is definitionally killing that isn't okay. That makes your statement a bit strange, from a logical standpoint. There are people that think killing is okay, you're almost definitely one of them. It's just, there's a very specific set of contexts where killing is considered okay. For example, a police sniper taking out an active shooter at a sports event would probably be nearly universally considered a justified killing. It isn't murder because there are reasons it's ok for the killing to have been done. Just an interesting thing to think about. Using murder for examples like this is a bit loaded.
- defrost 7mo agoMurder is definitionally intentional killing that isn't okay. Intent and justification both matter in common law; manslaughter covers killing that isn't okay that lacks intent to kill, and that often comes in degrees of severity.
- bombcar 7mo agoDon't the wealthy already "control history" by having the "largest amount of capital"?
- mcmcmc 7mo agoTo some extent yes, so why make it easier for them? While also giving them another way to siphon wealth off the losers for betting against them?
- bethekidyouwant 7mo agoHow? Some guy wants Polymarket gone so he bets $1 billion that it will be gone. Since this is absurd, everybody bets against him and makes a tidy profit. Whatever this is you’re proposing it doesn’t work.
- bombcar 7mo agoI think they're saying you bet $1 billion it will not be gone, and someone takes that bet and kills Polymarket (How?)
- bethekidyouwant 7mo agoAh yes, of course and then he pays poly market ceo half that to close the company in time. But how do you not get screwed in your subterfuge?
- kelseyfrog 7mo ago> how do you not get screwed in your subterfuge? You have to make another market that is a proxy for you (not) getting screwed.