Silver's model isn't particularly advanced on election day. The further you get from election day, the more advanced his forecast is, accounting for various fac

Silver's model isn't particularly advanced on election day. The further you get from election day, the more advanced his forecast is, accounting for various factors and ebbs and flows in polling data -- convention bounces, economic news, etc. A big part of Silver's success has not been his math, but rather his excellent writing. He offers easy to consume analysis of the polls and makes a boring (to the masses) subject interesting. He can be portrayed as a stats geek when presented to the public, but really he's a great communicator who also knows his data.