I think it's realatively easy, for a smart guy with a solid understandings of statistics to come up with a reasonable model (weight polls by sample size, come u

I think it's realatively easy, for a smart guy with a solid understandings of statistics to come up with a reasonable model (weight polls by sample size, come up with probability distribution for each state, run x Monte Carlo simulations and take the average of the result...). But a thing is coming up with a good model, another is to defend it publicly putting your reputation on the line, while it would have been a much safer bet simply to say 'it's too close to call', as many so-called experts did. Full credit to Nate, he made math cool for a lot of people.