3 ms·

That doesn't exactly limit the impact of cutting off the supply. It's a global trade market. If China buys on the global market from other places instead of Ira

by cbsmith 6mo ago

That doesn't exactly limit the impact of cutting off the supply. It's a global trade market. If China buys on the global market from other places instead of Iran because that oil isn't available, that still creates a shortage for everyone and that still pushes up the price of oil for everyone.

lmm 6mo ago
Sure. But the US has substantial domestic production. So China (and everyone else who has to import the majority of their oil) gets hurt more.
- mememememememo 6mo ago
  How to win friends and influence people.
- cbsmith 6mo ago
  Short term, you might be right. However... higher oil prices also increase energy prices across the board, and China's energy sector is dominant in renewables. I think they're more than happy to have the competing energy sources become even more expensive.
- cbsmith 6mo ago
  ...and of course the US has a lot of other industries that are hurt by this: https://www.npr.org/2026/03/26/g-s1-115240/iran-war-strait-hormuz-fertilizer-exports-farmers-planting-season https://www.npr.org/2026/03/26/g-s1-115240/iran-war-strait-h...
- appointment 6mo ago
  The US oil companies will export their oil to China (or Japan, South Korea and other major oil importers, in lieu of oil bought by China.)
  - lmm 6mo ago
    At a minimum that will reduce the trade deficit.
    - cbsmith 6mo ago
      Maybe? I wouldn't count on it. The US may be a net petro exporter, but it's about 1% of GDP. The other 99% are not going to do well with inflated energy prices. So exports might net go down.