5 ms·

Exactly. ~90% of Iran's crude went to China. The oil revenue was ~75% of Iran's budget. Iran has been a significant area of military development for China, ser

by miek 6mo ago

Exactly. ~90% of Iran's crude went to China. The oil revenue was ~75% of Iran's budget. Iran has been a significant area of military development for China, serving somewhat as a forward base.

cbsmith 6mo ago
That doesn't exactly limit the impact of cutting off the supply. It's a global trade market. If China buys on the global market from other places instead of Iran because that oil isn't available, that still creates a shortage for everyone and that still pushes up the price of oil for everyone.
- lmm 6mo ago
  Sure. But the US has substantial domestic production. So China (and everyone else who has to import the majority of their oil) gets hurt more.
  - mememememememo 6mo ago
    How to win friends and influence people.
  - cbsmith 6mo ago
    Short term, you might be right. However... higher oil prices also increase energy prices across the board, and China's energy sector is dominant in renewables. I think they're more than happy to have the competing energy sources become even more expensive.
  - cbsmith 6mo ago
    ...and of course the US has a lot of other industries that are hurt by this: https://www.npr.org/2026/03/26/g-s1-115240/iran-war-strait-hormuz-fertilizer-exports-farmers-planting-season https://www.npr.org/2026/03/26/g-s1-115240/iran-war-strait-h...
  - appointment 6mo ago
    The US oil companies will export their oil to China (or Japan, South Korea and other major oil importers, in lieu of oil bought by China.)
    - lmm 6mo ago
      At a minimum that will reduce the trade deficit.
      - cbsmith 6mo ago
        Maybe? I wouldn't count on it. The US may be a net petro exporter, but it's about 1% of GDP. The other 99% are not going to do well with inflated energy prices. So exports might net go down.