3 ms·
There were a couple notable projections that he was considerably off on, particularly some Santorum primary numbers late in the game. But, even someone with a p
by the_cat_kittles 14y ago
There were a couple notable projections that he was considerably off on, particularly some Santorum primary numbers late in the game. But, even someone with a projected 98% chance of winning should lose 2% of the time. In the aggregate, Silver's projections are excellent. I would like to see something like a Brier score for his projections, and compare it to various polling organizations, and other analytical pundits (do any notable ones exist?) to see who has done the best. On a related note, it would be nice to have a place where people could publicly lock in projections, and develop a record. Maybe that would help put the Joe Scarboroughs of the world out of work.
- gwern 14y agoIf it helps, http://marginoferror.org/2012/11/08/aggregating-the-aggregates/ http://marginoferror.org/2012/11/08/aggregating-the-aggregat... reports a RMSE for just his state-level margin of victory. But as part of a project I was aggregating predictions as well, and for his state wins I got 0.02833, for his Senate-level predictions I got a Brier of 0.04484545, and for his Presidency win & Senate wins & state wins, I got a Brier of 0.03710118. Hope this helps!
- gwern 14y agoThe project, specifically, was http://appliedrationality.org/2012/11/09/was-nate-silver-the-most-accurate-2012-election-pundit/ http://appliedrationality.org/2012/11/09/was-nate-silver-the... / http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4760649 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4760649