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The war should be over by March 31st. Netanyahu has a deadline. He is facing a snap election. If the Knesset doesn't pass a budget by March 31st, Israel votes

by Animats 7mo ago

The war should be over by March 31st. Netanyahu has a deadline. He is facing a snap election. If the Knesset doesn't pass a budget by March 31st, Israel votes 90 days later, and Netanyahu is not expected to win. Worse for Netanyahu, he's on trial for corruption charges, and once he's out of office, he's probably headed for jail. The war was intended to give Netanyahu's popularity a boost, but that did not work out. [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-seeks-avoid-snap-vote-iran-war-gives-no-boost-polls-2026-03-25/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-seeks-av...

andrewflnr 7mo ago
This toothpaste is probably not going in the tube by March 31, even if Netanyahu tries to scrape it back in.
YZF 7mo ago
The elections would happen by default in October: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_elect... The budget will likely be approved in parliament. Netanyahu has a solid majority and his partners are not interested in triggering elections. I'd be very surprised if that wasn't the case. Netanyahu survived many worse political crisis. I'll be happy to see him gone but he always pulls out some magic trick from his hat. The biggest factor will be whether the Arab parties will unite and actually get their people to go and vote. That they didn't in the last elections is how Bibi got to form the government again. Even if that happens this becomes tricky because you'll likely end up with a minority government. 90 days vs. October isn't that much of a difference either and a lot can change in 90 days.
- genxy 7mo ago
  Jesus, I had no idea that the Arab vote in Israel was so cruicial and that voter turn out is so low. Mid fifties for the 2022 election?
  - names_are_hard 7mo ago
    The Arab parties are potential "kingmakers" in the coalition arithmetic. In particular, it was Mansour Abbas that made the "change government" (Lapid-Bennett) and if there's any chance of unseating Bibi again it'll come down to him. And to my knowledge he hasn't ruled out joining Bibi either, if there's a deal to be made. A lot also depends on whether the Arab parties run together in the coming elections or not.
ZunarJ5 7mo ago
Iran has made it quite clear that it is not up to the aggressors as to when this ends.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
  > Iran has made it quite clear that it is not up to the aggressors as to when this ends Israel and the U.S. can absolutely end the war and leave a turd in the Gulf states' mess kits. The former would focus on Hezbollah. The latter start laying into Cuba or whatever.
  - bdangubic 7mo ago
    That would work great politically for both - we shot some bombs are basically realized we killed a bunch of innocent people/children and realized we gotta jet now achieving nothing but making sure Iran can continue even stronger than before (after China replenishes what was “bombed” in a few months?
  - andrewflnr 7mo ago
    They can try. I don't think they'll like the consequences. Imagine if Saudi Arabia decides it's not friends with the US anymore and won't send any more oil here. That'll shake things up a bit, won't it? And Iran will be even more pissed off and determined to get a nuke than before, probably still choking the strait. You're talking about the US and Israel leaving the biggest, most obvious turd in history on the entire world's dining table. Not saying it can't happen. There doesn't seem to be a bottom to the incompetence.
    - throwaway85825 7mo ago
      Oil is a fungible commodity.
      - andrewflnr 7mo ago
        It's not as fungible as you would hope. Funging refineries and transport capacity takes time.
erxam 7mo ago
[flagged]
mememememememo 7mo ago
Iran, got that? 31st March. Add it to your Google Calendar.
- mememememememo 7mo ago
  24h left

by Animats 7mo ago

andrewflnr 7mo ago

This toothpaste is probably not going in the tube by March 31, even if Netanyahu tries to scrape it back in.

YZF 7mo ago

The elections would happen by default in October: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_elect... The budget will likely be approved in parliament. Netanyahu has a solid majority and his partners are not interested in triggering elections. I'd be very surprised if that wasn't the case. Netanyahu survived many worse political crisis. I'll be happy to see him gone but he always pulls out some magic trick from his hat. The biggest factor will be whether the Arab parties will unite and actually get their people to go and vote. That they didn't in the last elections is how Bibi got to form the government again. Even if that happens this becomes tricky because you'll likely end up with a minority government. 90 days vs. October isn't that much of a difference either and a lot can change in 90 days.

genxy 7mo ago
Jesus, I had no idea that the Arab vote in Israel was so cruicial and that voter turn out is so low. Mid fifties for the 2022 election?
- names_are_hard 7mo ago
  The Arab parties are potential "kingmakers" in the coalition arithmetic. In particular, it was Mansour Abbas that made the "change government" (Lapid-Bennett) and if there's any chance of unseating Bibi again it'll come down to him. And to my knowledge he hasn't ruled out joining Bibi either, if there's a deal to be made. A lot also depends on whether the Arab parties run together in the coming elections or not.

ZunarJ5 7mo ago

Iran has made it quite clear that it is not up to the aggressors as to when this ends.

JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
> Iran has made it quite clear that it is not up to the aggressors as to when this ends Israel and the U.S. can absolutely end the war and leave a turd in the Gulf states' mess kits. The former would focus on Hezbollah. The latter start laying into Cuba or whatever.
- bdangubic 7mo ago
  That would work great politically for both - we shot some bombs are basically realized we killed a bunch of innocent people/children and realized we gotta jet now achieving nothing but making sure Iran can continue even stronger than before (after China replenishes what was “bombed” in a few months?
- andrewflnr 7mo ago
  They can try. I don't think they'll like the consequences. Imagine if Saudi Arabia decides it's not friends with the US anymore and won't send any more oil here. That'll shake things up a bit, won't it? And Iran will be even more pissed off and determined to get a nuke than before, probably still choking the strait. You're talking about the US and Israel leaving the biggest, most obvious turd in history on the entire world's dining table. Not saying it can't happen. There doesn't seem to be a bottom to the incompetence.
  - throwaway85825 7mo ago
    Oil is a fungible commodity.
    - andrewflnr 7mo ago
      It's not as fungible as you would hope. Funging refineries and transport capacity takes time.

erxam 7mo ago

[flagged]

mememememememo 7mo ago

Iran, got that? 31st March. Add it to your Google Calendar.

mememememememo 7mo ago
24h left