2^3 == 8 So there's the pundit response or the data response. The pundit response: "this election is a toss-up!" In which case we'll just reject your assertio

2^3 == 8 So there's the pundit response or the data response. The pundit response: "this election is a toss-up!" In which case we'll just reject your assertion outright. No one really buys the pundit response, though! Okay, the data response to your assertion: pollster.com kind of rejects this if you scroll right on the top row of charts.[0] Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina all polled closely, bumping us to 2^8 = 256 possible outcomes. This ignores the absurd accuracy of Silver's predictions. My favorite is his prediction for Florida: https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/265835769934012416 https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/26583576993401241... Florida sat at 49.8% to 49.4% for the majority of the night until it recently opened up to a chasm-sized 49.9/49.2 for Obama. Silver had it at 49.79/49.72 for Obama. So...yeah. If you look at his predictions it's not just monkeys on a typewriter. His results are incredibly accurate from a discrete or a continuous point of view. [0] http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster#2012-presidential-race http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster#2012-presidenti...