5 ms·

> and do what? Bomb shit. The Saudi and UAE militaries aren't anything to sneeze at. (The area cross the Strait from the UAE is majority Arab [1].) I think it

> and do what? Bomb shit. The Saudi and UAE militaries aren't anything to sneeze at. (The area cross the Strait from the UAE is majority Arab [1].) I think it's generally good strategy to not provoke new belligerents against oneself. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnicities_in_Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnicities_in_Iran

andriy_koval 8mo ago
Saudi and UAE has less air power than US+Israel, whatever could be bombed already bombed. But Saudi and UAE are ruled by rich regimes who benefit from oil revenue, and very vulnarable to Iran strikes, they more likely will pay those $2m.
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
  > Saudi and UAE has less air power than US+Israel Less plus some is still more. > whatever could be bombed already bombed This is plainly untrue. We're still bombing things. Missiles are still being fired. Power plants and refineries continue to run. > Saudi and UAE are ruled by rich regimes who benefit from oil revenue, and very vulnarable to Iran strikes, they more likely will pay those $2m That functionally cedes Emirati and Saudi sovereignty to Iran. Today it's $2mm. Tomorrow it's anything else Tehran requires.
  - andriy_koval 8mo ago
    > That functionally cedes Emirati and Saudi sovereignty to Iran. Today it's $2mm. Tomorrow it's anything else Tehran requires. the point is besides full scale invasion which Saudi and UAE won't do, there is no reliable way to remove threat of Iran striking oil infra, they just don't have way to deal with the problem.
    - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
      > full scale invasion which Saudi and UAE won't do Don't need a full-scale invasion. Just a land grab on the coasts. They can't do it alone. But they can provide troops (and mercenaries) as well as staying power where the U.S. cannot. > there is no reliable way to remove threat of Iran striking oil infra Barring invasion: mutualize the damage. Pot Iranian tankers. Seed their ports with mines. Israel locking up the Caspian and the UAE and Saudi Arabia locking up Hormuz to Iran changes the calculus of the war in Tehran and makes suing for peace–not with America and Israel, but with the Gulf–tenable.
      - andriy_koval 8mo ago
        > Don't need a full-scale invasion. Just a land grab on the coasts. They can't do it alone. But they can provide troops (and mercenaries) as well as staying power where the U.S. cannot. they couldn't win this against much closer, smaller and weaker Yemen. They just don't have functional military. > mutualize the damage. Pot Iranian tankers. Seed their ports with mines. I don't believe they will do this because they love oil money too much, unlike Iranian regime, which is idiologically/religiously driven, and endured for many years of various attacks and sanctions.
        JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
        > couldn't win this against much closer, smaller and weaker Yemen. They just don't have functional military KSA went it alone in Yemen. And from that–as well as various proxy wars in Africa–both it and the UAE have learned. > don't believe they will do this because they love oil money too much Loving oil money means wanting to export your oil. That said, I think the monarchies are more politically vulnerable. So it's harder for them to commit to this path. (It would also involve pissing off Trump.) But that doesn't mean it's strategically off the table, particularly for Saudi Arabia, which is less dependent on the Strait than the UAE.
        andriy_koval 8mo ago
        > KSA went it alone in Yemen. there were many countries involved in coalition. UAE specifically sent troups to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Aden_(2018) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Aden_(2018) But the issue is that KSA just didn't perform on the ground, well equipped troups were overrun by Houthies with AK consistently. Not clear if they changed anything. > Loving oil money means wanting to export your oil. right, if Iran will take reasonable cuts, gulf states won't escalate.
    - sysguest 8mo ago
      well I don't actually think Saudi & UAE will send their own countrymen... rather, they'd just use oil money and pay gurkha mercenaries
      - andriy_koval 8mo ago
        this didn't work for them in Yemen. And Iran is farther and stronger.
Der_Einzige 8mo ago
The Saudi and UAE militaries are indeed something to sneeze at. Go read the comments about them from anyone in the US military whose worked with them. https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/19ckc6l/saudi_arabias_military_is_often_maligned_does_it/ https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/19ckc6l/saudi_a... https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/qhmbog/why_is_there_such_incompetence_with_the_saudian/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/qhmbog/why_i... https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/hqfatn/why_are_arab_armies_so_incompetent/ https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/hqfatn/why_are_... https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/fbd97k/is_saudi_arabia_military_just_a_huge_golden_paper/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/fbd97k/is_...
- sysguest 8mo ago
  well you don't expect them to fight bravely -- well, I don't even expect Saudis to even send their own citizens to iran rather, you expect them to pay for the missiles and mercenaries like gurkhans
  - andriy_koval 8mo ago
    gurkhans are few and already employed, and there is no much substitution.

andriy_koval 8mo ago

Saudi and UAE has less air power than US+Israel, whatever could be bombed already bombed. But Saudi and UAE are ruled by rich regimes who benefit from oil revenue, and very vulnarable to Iran strikes, they more likely will pay those $2m.

JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
> Saudi and UAE has less air power than US+Israel Less plus some is still more. > whatever could be bombed already bombed This is plainly untrue. We're still bombing things. Missiles are still being fired. Power plants and refineries continue to run. > Saudi and UAE are ruled by rich regimes who benefit from oil revenue, and very vulnarable to Iran strikes, they more likely will pay those $2m That functionally cedes Emirati and Saudi sovereignty to Iran. Today it's $2mm. Tomorrow it's anything else Tehran requires.
- andriy_koval 8mo ago
  > That functionally cedes Emirati and Saudi sovereignty to Iran. Today it's $2mm. Tomorrow it's anything else Tehran requires. the point is besides full scale invasion which Saudi and UAE won't do, there is no reliable way to remove threat of Iran striking oil infra, they just don't have way to deal with the problem.
  - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
    > full scale invasion which Saudi and UAE won't do Don't need a full-scale invasion. Just a land grab on the coasts. They can't do it alone. But they can provide troops (and mercenaries) as well as staying power where the U.S. cannot. > there is no reliable way to remove threat of Iran striking oil infra Barring invasion: mutualize the damage. Pot Iranian tankers. Seed their ports with mines. Israel locking up the Caspian and the UAE and Saudi Arabia locking up Hormuz to Iran changes the calculus of the war in Tehran and makes suing for peace–not with America and Israel, but with the Gulf–tenable.
    - andriy_koval 8mo ago
      > Don't need a full-scale invasion. Just a land grab on the coasts. They can't do it alone. But they can provide troops (and mercenaries) as well as staying power where the U.S. cannot. they couldn't win this against much closer, smaller and weaker Yemen. They just don't have functional military. > mutualize the damage. Pot Iranian tankers. Seed their ports with mines. I don't believe they will do this because they love oil money too much, unlike Iranian regime, which is idiologically/religiously driven, and endured for many years of various attacks and sanctions.
      - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
        > couldn't win this against much closer, smaller and weaker Yemen. They just don't have functional military KSA went it alone in Yemen. And from that–as well as various proxy wars in Africa–both it and the UAE have learned. > don't believe they will do this because they love oil money too much Loving oil money means wanting to export your oil. That said, I think the monarchies are more politically vulnerable. So it's harder for them to commit to this path. (It would also involve pissing off Trump.) But that doesn't mean it's strategically off the table, particularly for Saudi Arabia, which is less dependent on the Strait than the UAE.
        andriy_koval 8mo ago
        > KSA went it alone in Yemen. there were many countries involved in coalition. UAE specifically sent troups to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Aden_(2018) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Aden_(2018) But the issue is that KSA just didn't perform on the ground, well equipped troups were overrun by Houthies with AK consistently. Not clear if they changed anything. > Loving oil money means wanting to export your oil. right, if Iran will take reasonable cuts, gulf states won't escalate.
  - sysguest 8mo ago
    well I don't actually think Saudi & UAE will send their own countrymen... rather, they'd just use oil money and pay gurkha mercenaries
    - andriy_koval 8mo ago
      this didn't work for them in Yemen. And Iran is farther and stronger.

Der_Einzige 8mo ago

The Saudi and UAE militaries are indeed something to sneeze at. Go read the comments about them from anyone in the US military whose worked with them. https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/19ckc6l/saudi_arabias_military_is_often_maligned_does_it/ https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/19ckc6l/saudi_a... https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/qhmbog/why_is_there_such_incompetence_with_the_saudian/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/qhmbog/why_i... https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/hqfatn/why_are_arab_armies_so_incompetent/ https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/hqfatn/why_are_... https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/fbd97k/is_saudi_arabia_military_just_a_huge_golden_paper/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/fbd97k/is_...

sysguest 8mo ago
well you don't expect them to fight bravely -- well, I don't even expect Saudis to even send their own citizens to iran rather, you expect them to pay for the missiles and mercenaries like gurkhans
- andriy_koval 8mo ago
  gurkhans are few and already employed, and there is no much substitution.