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> to combine multiple polls to increase the effective sample size and shrink confidence intervals How does this work? I was under the impression that to shrink
by spicyj 14y ago
> to combine multiple polls to increase the effective sample size and shrink confidence intervals
How does this work? I was under the impression that to shrink the confidence interval by half you need 4x as many sample points, but there must be more sophisticated statistical methods at work here.
- 3JPLW 14y agoHis models have a memory (increase sample size by using a handful of day or week old data) and aggregate as many as 5 to 8 independent polls per state plus as many as a dozen national polls that factor into his simulations. That's easily four to sixteen times the sample size.
- niggler 14y agoYou can improve effective sample size by eliminating extraneous variables. One thing that Nate does is take advantage of implicit biases (for example, PPP polls lean slightly left)
- waterlesscloud 14y agoPPP seems to have predicted 332 EV and correctly picked the winner in every state they polled. They didn't poll some of the obvious states...