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I disagree. Even though I think the Iranian regime has been extremely incompetent overall their war strategy has been surprisingly lucid. They aren't actually r

by rurp 7mo ago

I disagree. Even though I think the Iranian regime has been extremely incompetent overall their war strategy has been surprisingly lucid. They aren't actually risking much more by attacking neighboring countries that are already cooperating with the US. How much is Qatar's military involvement going to move the needle when you're already facing a full-on war with the US and Israel? Raising the overall costs to the US and its allies is a pretty coherent theory of victory for Iran. Obviously they aren't going to win a conventional fight, but they might be able to inflict enough havoc on energy and commodity markets to the point that it really hurts the US and its allies economically; perhaps enough that they bail out of the war in order to stabilize the global economy. Trump clearly wanted a quick easy win here and does not want to see massive inflation at home. Sure he personally doesn't give a shit about Americans but the rest of the politicians who enable him do and he's at risk of absolutely torching his own party for years if the war drags on and costs really get out of hand. All the Iranian regime has to do to win is not lose for enough weeks. If the regime holds out Trump will have to either give up and try to pretend this disaster was a Great Victory, or he'll launch a ground invasion that will almost certainly turn into a quagmire. Bombing civilians makes a popular uprising much less likely, so the US is doing them quite a favor on that front.

markdown 7mo ago
Yup, Iran is threatening regime change by targeting the financial stability of American voters. It's their only play, really.
- sysguest 7mo ago
  well... I actually think even when trump is impeached, the democrats will continue -- even more so, to call mr trump "a weak president" I mean, can US and its allies exactly stop at status quo? Iran just learnt it can missile nearby neighbors and demand $2M toll fee on the strait users... even if US just backs down from "epic wut", will iran become "the good guy" and never missile neighbors and stop demanding that $2M toll? nope: rather, that would mean US and allies will lose its deterrence against Iran completely iran'll start bullying more on those neighbors, and the toll fee will go up: $2M to $5M to $10M to... even $100M -- I mean, what's stopping iran from doing so? anyway, I'm just surprised everyone in this forum is trying their best only to say "trump is such an idiot to start the war (well duh?)", and not to look at what choices each nations had/have after trump's dickhead move
  - don_esteban 7mo ago
    Stop projecting on Iran what USA would do in their place (bullying everybody). Iran was NOT bombing its neighbours and demanding Hormuz toll before the war. Not even after it was bombed last June. If they had not responded strongly, USA/Israel would keep periodically 'mowing the lawn', not acceptable to any country, especially not for a big and proud nation like Iran. Btw, the US military bases in Gulf countries are legitimate military targets, and have born the brunt of Iran's attacks. It is just that in our western media the focus is on any civilian damages, and almost all damages to military is hushed up. Iran has no good way to prevent future attacks (nobody sane would believe any agreement signed by USA), their only way is to make sure beyond any doubt that attacking them again will hurt VERY, VERY much. As a side note, getting rid of USA military bases in the Gulf would be beneficial to them in making any future attacks on them more difficult. Hence the (very true!) messaging 'the USA military bases are not there to protect you, but to help them project power over us (and you!), and are only making you a target, reducing your security, not increasing it'.
    - corimaith 7mo ago
      >Iran was NOT bombing its neighbours and demanding Hormuz toll before the war. Not even after it was bombed last June. They were funding and arming proxies that were bombing and destabilizing neighborhoods. Nobody in the region likes Iran, that is precisely why the Gulf States want US bases and a Israeli military pact. And this is not a reactive policy as it is an explicit proactive policy of exporting the Islamic Revolution and gaining regional hegemony. Which no one wants.
    - theonething 7mo ago
      > Iran was NOT bombing its neighbours and demanding Hormuz toll before the war. Not even after it was bombed last June. Iran has a history of launching rockets into Israel, both through it's proxies an directly. It has also invaded the US embassy holding 52 staff hostage, conducted unprovoked attacks against allied interests, attacks merchant ships in international waters and massacred tens of thousands of it's own people for the crime of speaking out against the government. Your perception of Iran is delusional.

by rurp 7mo ago

markdown 7mo ago

Yup, Iran is threatening regime change by targeting the financial stability of American voters. It's their only play, really.

sysguest 7mo ago
well... I actually think even when trump is impeached, the democrats will continue -- even more so, to call mr trump "a weak president" I mean, can US and its allies exactly stop at status quo? Iran just learnt it can missile nearby neighbors and demand $2M toll fee on the strait users... even if US just backs down from "epic wut", will iran become "the good guy" and never missile neighbors and stop demanding that $2M toll? nope: rather, that would mean US and allies will lose its deterrence against Iran completely iran'll start bullying more on those neighbors, and the toll fee will go up: $2M to $5M to $10M to... even $100M -- I mean, what's stopping iran from doing so? anyway, I'm just surprised everyone in this forum is trying their best only to say "trump is such an idiot to start the war (well duh?)", and not to look at what choices each nations had/have after trump's dickhead move
- don_esteban 7mo ago
  Stop projecting on Iran what USA would do in their place (bullying everybody). Iran was NOT bombing its neighbours and demanding Hormuz toll before the war. Not even after it was bombed last June. If they had not responded strongly, USA/Israel would keep periodically 'mowing the lawn', not acceptable to any country, especially not for a big and proud nation like Iran. Btw, the US military bases in Gulf countries are legitimate military targets, and have born the brunt of Iran's attacks. It is just that in our western media the focus is on any civilian damages, and almost all damages to military is hushed up. Iran has no good way to prevent future attacks (nobody sane would believe any agreement signed by USA), their only way is to make sure beyond any doubt that attacking them again will hurt VERY, VERY much. As a side note, getting rid of USA military bases in the Gulf would be beneficial to them in making any future attacks on them more difficult. Hence the (very true!) messaging 'the USA military bases are not there to protect you, but to help them project power over us (and you!), and are only making you a target, reducing your security, not increasing it'.
  - corimaith 7mo ago
    >Iran was NOT bombing its neighbours and demanding Hormuz toll before the war. Not even after it was bombed last June. They were funding and arming proxies that were bombing and destabilizing neighborhoods. Nobody in the region likes Iran, that is precisely why the Gulf States want US bases and a Israeli military pact. And this is not a reactive policy as it is an explicit proactive policy of exporting the Islamic Revolution and gaining regional hegemony. Which no one wants.
  - theonething 7mo ago
    > Iran was NOT bombing its neighbours and demanding Hormuz toll before the war. Not even after it was bombed last June. Iran has a history of launching rockets into Israel, both through it's proxies an directly. It has also invaded the US embassy holding 52 staff hostage, conducted unprovoked attacks against allied interests, attacks merchant ships in international waters and massacred tens of thousands of it's own people for the crime of speaking out against the government. Your perception of Iran is delusional.