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Seriously, all these armchair "experts" are missing very obvious truths - 1) Every authority figure is telling the Iranian people to stay inside and wait. 2)
by erezsh 6mo ago
Seriously, all these armchair "experts" are missing very obvious truths -
1) Every authority figure is telling the Iranian people to stay inside and wait.
2) Revolutions don't happen overnight, the same way that businesses don't succeed overnight, even though from far away it might seem that way.
3) Official Israeli statements estimate it could take up to a year after the war is over for a successful overthrow, even if everything is going according to plan.
The truth is there's a lot of people who want this war to fail, because it will align with their political convictions and hopes.
- enaaem 6mo agoI will predict right now that no revolution will happen. Revolutions happen because of fragmentation within the regime. If there is one thing that puts all grievances aside then that would be an existential war. Just like during the Iran-Iraq war.
- watwut 6mo agoIsrael does not want functional moderate goverment in Iran. It would bomb and kill anyone who tries that. Israels plan is to periodically bomb and keep Iran failed state. It is working on making itself larger cleansing whole areas around it and settling it.
- WarmWash 6mo agoIsrael doesn't want delusional theocrats running Iran.
- tomjakubowski 6mo agoIt may not be in Israel's national interest having an aggressive Islamist government in Iran, but political incentives and national interest aren't always aligned.
- Starman_Jones 6mo agoI mean, they kinda do.
- JumpCrisscross 6mo ago> Israel does not want functional moderate goverment in Iran Israel would probably be fine with a moderate government in Iran. A moderate Tehran doesn't encourage Hamas and Hezbollah to randomly lob rockets into Israel. Even if Israel disagreed, a moderate Iran balances Israel in the region. An Iran that has beef with literally every single one of its neighbors other than Turkmenistan cannot provide that balance.
- cheema33 6mo ago> An Iran that has beef with literally every single one of its neighbors other than Turkmenistan cannot provide that balance. Well, is that better than Israel and its relationships with its neighbors?
- JumpCrisscross 6mo ago> is that better than Israel and its relationships with its neighbors? Yes. Tel Aviv retains solid security relationships with Jordan and Egypt. And it trades with its region [1]. On a ranking of hegemonic pests, Iran is way ahead. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade_agreements_of_Israel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade_agreements_of_Israe...
- LtWorf 6mo agoBut how would they have an excuse to conduct a genocide then?
- oa335 6mo ago> Israel would probably be fine with a moderate government in Iran. Maybe, but I think they are genuinely aiming for a failed state. Israel is a state with a political apparatus that is predicated on providing security. That apparatus needs a persistent (but non-serious) threat to remain in power. I think best case for that power is to have a number of failed, weak states in the Middle East that occasionally launch relatively impotent attacks against Israel. This would also have the side effect of giving hard-line elements in Israel the enough justification to expand their borders and continue ethnic cleansing (e.g. what is happening in Lebanon right now).
- tomjakubowski 6mo ago> 1) Every authority figure is telling the Iranian people to stay inside and wait. Last week: "Our aircraft are striking terrorist operatives on the ground, on roads and in public squares. This is meant to allow the brave Iranian people to celebrate the Festival of Fire. So go out and celebrate...we are watching from above," Netanyahu said, speaking from air force headquarters.