5 ms·

I see a lot of people throw this "no revolution" perspective around when everyone involved has been very clear to the Iranian people: that this is the time to s

by redwood 7mo ago

I see a lot of people throw this "no revolution" perspective around when everyone involved has been very clear to the Iranian people: that this is the time to stay safe and inside. People rising up will take time, and will be highly unpredictable. No one said otherwise. You imply "analysts already had this all identified" yet you are putting forward a supposition here that's just wildly unrealistic.

ses1984 7mo ago
Donald trump addressed the Iranian people in a video message and told them to rise up when the war began.
- redwood 7mo ago
  That was in January
  - ses1984 7mo ago
    No actually it was feb 28th https://x.com/i/status/2027651077865157033 https://x.com/i/status/2027651077865157033
    - redwood 7mo ago
      Did you even listen to the link you just posted? He makes very clear in his instructions to the Iranian people that they should stay sheltered as bombs will be dropping.
      - overfeed 7mo ago
        Do go on - what were his instructions on what they ought to do after the bombing stopped?
        redwood 7mo ago
        Overthrow the regime. Has the bombing stopped?
    - redwood 7mo ago
      I think you're conflating the details with what he explicitly was saying on January 13th
- Pay08 7mo ago
  Link?
  - ses1984 7mo ago
    https://x.com/i/status/2027651077865157033 https://x.com/i/status/2027651077865157033
erezsh 7mo ago
Seriously, all these armchair "experts" are missing very obvious truths - 1) Every authority figure is telling the Iranian people to stay inside and wait. 2) Revolutions don't happen overnight, the same way that businesses don't succeed overnight, even though from far away it might seem that way. 3) Official Israeli statements estimate it could take up to a year after the war is over for a successful overthrow, even if everything is going according to plan. The truth is there's a lot of people who want this war to fail, because it will align with their political convictions and hopes.
- enaaem 7mo ago
  I will predict right now that no revolution will happen. Revolutions happen because of fragmentation within the regime. If there is one thing that puts all grievances aside then that would be an existential war. Just like during the Iran-Iraq war.
- watwut 7mo ago
  Israel does not want functional moderate goverment in Iran. It would bomb and kill anyone who tries that. Israels plan is to periodically bomb and keep Iran failed state. It is working on making itself larger cleansing whole areas around it and settling it.
  - WarmWash 7mo ago
    Israel doesn't want delusional theocrats running Iran.
    - tomjakubowski 7mo ago
      It may not be in Israel's national interest having an aggressive Islamist government in Iran, but political incentives and national interest aren't always aligned.
    - Starman_Jones 7mo ago
      I mean, they kinda do.

by redwood 7mo ago

ses1984 7mo ago

Donald trump addressed the Iranian people in a video message and told them to rise up when the war began.

redwood 7mo ago
That was in January
- ses1984 7mo ago
  No actually it was feb 28th https://x.com/i/status/2027651077865157033 https://x.com/i/status/2027651077865157033
  - redwood 7mo ago
    Did you even listen to the link you just posted? He makes very clear in his instructions to the Iranian people that they should stay sheltered as bombs will be dropping.
    - overfeed 7mo ago
      Do go on - what were his instructions on what they ought to do after the bombing stopped?
      - redwood 7mo ago
        Overthrow the regime. Has the bombing stopped?
  - redwood 7mo ago
    I think you're conflating the details with what he explicitly was saying on January 13th
Pay08 7mo ago
Link?
- ses1984 7mo ago
  https://x.com/i/status/2027651077865157033 https://x.com/i/status/2027651077865157033

erezsh 7mo ago

Seriously, all these armchair "experts" are missing very obvious truths - 1) Every authority figure is telling the Iranian people to stay inside and wait. 2) Revolutions don't happen overnight, the same way that businesses don't succeed overnight, even though from far away it might seem that way. 3) Official Israeli statements estimate it could take up to a year after the war is over for a successful overthrow, even if everything is going according to plan. The truth is there's a lot of people who want this war to fail, because it will align with their political convictions and hopes.

enaaem 7mo ago
I will predict right now that no revolution will happen. Revolutions happen because of fragmentation within the regime. If there is one thing that puts all grievances aside then that would be an existential war. Just like during the Iran-Iraq war.
watwut 7mo ago
Israel does not want functional moderate goverment in Iran. It would bomb and kill anyone who tries that. Israels plan is to periodically bomb and keep Iran failed state. It is working on making itself larger cleansing whole areas around it and settling it.
- WarmWash 7mo ago
  Israel doesn't want delusional theocrats running Iran.
  - tomjakubowski 7mo ago
    It may not be in Israel's national interest having an aggressive Islamist government in Iran, but political incentives and national interest aren't always aligned.
  - Starman_Jones 7mo ago
    I mean, they kinda do.