4 ms·

That doesn't change in the least the argument the OP made. The UN's IAEA has declared that Iran deceived them, didn't follow the agreements, and even accused th

by spwa4 8mo ago

That doesn't change in the least the argument the OP made. The UN's IAEA has declared that Iran deceived them, didn't follow the agreements, and even accused them of violating the agreements with the intent to build a bomb. As to Trump's motivations, they don't change this calculus. Iran intended to nuke their neighbors, and Israel, not just before Trump came to power but literally before the first Bush became president. And the full situation is even worse: right after the mullah's came to power in a leftist revolution in 1979, they begged for US and Israel's help to stop Saddam Hussein from nuking them. They got that help ... and then figured that nukes are a great idea. Here's what the mullahs are most afraid of btw. The biggest threat to their power, the biggest problem for their central-London villas: https://x.com/NarimanGharib/status/2036761330359615897 https://x.com/NarimanGharib/status/2036761330359615897 This local opposition to them has systematically worsened over time, btw. So I wouldn't put it past the mullahs to nuke Iran itself, eventually. It also means that Iran's islamic regime is threatening everyone, for the simple reason that if they make a single concession loosening their grip on Iran, they'll be lynched, one by one, in the streets, by people they went to school with. That is how much Iran's regime is "winning".

bryanlarsen 8mo ago
You, me, solatic and acoup probably all agree that a nuclear weapon in Iranian hands is a huge danger. But it's only Donald Trump that has used that as an excuse to make that danger greater. And acoup has a great counter-point to your tweet in the article. The Soviet Union dealt with massive internal protest quite successfully for pretty much every single one of its 70 years of existence. The Soviet Union only fell when insiders took it down. Iran appears to be in absolutely no danger of that happening.
Hikikomori 8mo ago
JCPOA was followed with minor discrepancies like having less than 1 ton too much heavy water. US intelligence agencies agreed that Iran was not working on a bomb as US left JCPOA, as they testified to in congress.
- spwa4 8mo ago
  Well, here is the final UN report, from the horses mouth so to speak: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-25.pdf https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-25.pd... (they preliminarily reported the same stance even in 2024, before any attacks) TLDR: Iran, despite having signed a treaty allowing access, is hiding highly enriched uranium, enough to build 9, maybe 10 nuclear devices. It is also not complying with its other obligations under the NPT treaty. And then Iran responded to this ... by boasting of making nuclear weapons grade uranium to make bombs, to American diplomats: https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/iran-eastern-states/artc-iran-could-have-produced-11-nuclear-bombs-witkoff-reveals-details-from-negotiations https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/iran-eastern-stat... Now I get that American diplomacy is a shitshow since ... a certain event. However, I fail to come up with a worse attitude that Iran could have had at the time. They are openly boasting of having "the divine right" to enriched uranium that can only be used for bombs in negotiations ... I also get that Americans (and everyone else, for that matter) feel that it's entirely unfair that they have to care about nuclear weapons in Iran. But if nobody does ... Iran's leaders have made it clear that as soon as they have the weapons, nuclear war starts. What I find baffling is that nobody cares ... Of course, now it turns out that UAE and Saudi Arabia have since been SCREAMING at the US to do something. But the people it will affect the most are of course in Europe and Asia (everyone except Russia, Norway and Ukraine), who are effectively going to see yet another 3-4% tariff, except this one applies even on goods they produce themselves, for themselves. The EU is burning massive amounts of political goodwill trying to get a few percent savings, and now they'll have to do tell their people they're saving at least double that, in a few months time, with no real warning.
  - Hikikomori 8mo ago
    They started again in 2021, years after Trump left the JCPOA and imposed heavy sanctions. You see how one thing might lead to another? Its almost like someone wants this to happen.
    - spwa4 8mo ago
      I don't really care what you say, this is the IRGC, who massacred 50 people at Brussels airport for example. If they feel they are unfairly treated in any way, they can always report to the Belgian authorities, who I'm sure will provide a small windowless room with free meals. And until they do that, and until they're let out again, no amount of arguments will ever make me agree that it's just not fair. In fact, if everyone even remotely involved with them gets shot THAT I will call fairness.

by spwa4 8mo ago

bryanlarsen 8mo ago

You, me, solatic and acoup probably all agree that a nuclear weapon in Iranian hands is a huge danger. But it's only Donald Trump that has used that as an excuse to make that danger greater. And acoup has a great counter-point to your tweet in the article. The Soviet Union dealt with massive internal protest quite successfully for pretty much every single one of its 70 years of existence. The Soviet Union only fell when insiders took it down. Iran appears to be in absolutely no danger of that happening.

Hikikomori 8mo ago

JCPOA was followed with minor discrepancies like having less than 1 ton too much heavy water. US intelligence agencies agreed that Iran was not working on a bomb as US left JCPOA, as they testified to in congress.

spwa4 8mo ago
Well, here is the final UN report, from the horses mouth so to speak: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-25.pdf https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-25.pd... (they preliminarily reported the same stance even in 2024, before any attacks) TLDR: Iran, despite having signed a treaty allowing access, is hiding highly enriched uranium, enough to build 9, maybe 10 nuclear devices. It is also not complying with its other obligations under the NPT treaty. And then Iran responded to this ... by boasting of making nuclear weapons grade uranium to make bombs, to American diplomats: https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/iran-eastern-states/artc-iran-could-have-produced-11-nuclear-bombs-witkoff-reveals-details-from-negotiations https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/iran-eastern-stat... Now I get that American diplomacy is a shitshow since ... a certain event. However, I fail to come up with a worse attitude that Iran could have had at the time. They are openly boasting of having "the divine right" to enriched uranium that can only be used for bombs in negotiations ... I also get that Americans (and everyone else, for that matter) feel that it's entirely unfair that they have to care about nuclear weapons in Iran. But if nobody does ... Iran's leaders have made it clear that as soon as they have the weapons, nuclear war starts. What I find baffling is that nobody cares ... Of course, now it turns out that UAE and Saudi Arabia have since been SCREAMING at the US to do something. But the people it will affect the most are of course in Europe and Asia (everyone except Russia, Norway and Ukraine), who are effectively going to see yet another 3-4% tariff, except this one applies even on goods they produce themselves, for themselves. The EU is burning massive amounts of political goodwill trying to get a few percent savings, and now they'll have to do tell their people they're saving at least double that, in a few months time, with no real warning.
- Hikikomori 8mo ago
  They started again in 2021, years after Trump left the JCPOA and imposed heavy sanctions. You see how one thing might lead to another? Its almost like someone wants this to happen.
  - spwa4 8mo ago
    I don't really care what you say, this is the IRGC, who massacred 50 people at Brussels airport for example. If they feel they are unfairly treated in any way, they can always report to the Belgian authorities, who I'm sure will provide a small windowless room with free meals. And until they do that, and until they're let out again, no amount of arguments will ever make me agree that it's just not fair. In fact, if everyone even remotely involved with them gets shot THAT I will call fairness.