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If there was a definitive answer to this, don't you think that the markets would already have moved to account for it?

• M95D 7mo ago
  But they did! Look at the gold price.
  • OgsyedIE 7mo ago
    Not just the price, the physical volumes. China's central bank has been discounting their bonds beyond what the market can support in order to get more free cash to buy up as much metal as possible as soon as possible, to the point that people are making millions this month just in the arbitrage from buying up everything in the London and Chicago exchanges to give to China.
• HWR_14 7mo ago
  It's entirely possible that there could be an answer for which type of recession to expect but it still might not be priced in. For instance if many people think the recession is going to happen in 2028 and I think it will happen next month, we would have very different investments.