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This is a certainty as absolutely nothing will change over 60-70 years. Politics and economics are immutable constants, just like the speed of light! Nostradamu

This is a certainty as absolutely nothing will change over 60-70 years. Politics and economics are immutable constants, just like the speed of light! Nostradamus was right! The Mayan calendar nailed it! ...These longterm forecasts are useless.

toomuchtodo 7mo ago
"Demographics are destiny." https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbea597263a88f27075bd6eb49_17385_suerf.pdf https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbe... https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2020/09/18/the-great-demographic-reversal-and-what-it-means-for-the-economy/ https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2020/09/18/the-great-...
- yabutlivnWoods 7mo ago
  Your links are about raw meat suit numbers. Not future political and economic policy. Through diplomacy it could be decided by future generations they aren't paying off the tab accrued by then long dead Boomers and Big Tech Bro billionaire GenXers, wipe it all out with a debt jubilee. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_jubilee https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_jubilee
  - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
    If you'd like to bet on this occurring, let me know! We'll spin up a Long Bet. https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/
    - deleted 7mo ago
      [deleted]
    - yabutlivnWoods 7mo ago
      Right; so you realize this isn't a certainty. If raw numbers mattered why didn't China and India get to the moon first? They had billions more people than the US this whole time. Signal propagation through a populace is physical scaling problem. A future pandemic here, populist revolt there; long dead dear leaders efforts fall apart. See the end of New Deal as that generation died off. So my point stands the content of future political discourse and economic policy matters; despite billions more people in India and China in the 1960s, they were not chanting "we choose to go to the moon". They were far more tribal societies back then. See America becoming more tribal and norms falling apart. Will keep relying in my first hand experience engineering hardware, seeing with my own eyes how difficult stable signal propagation is.
- laughing_man 7mo ago
  The issue I have with demographic arguments over that kind of time period is a percent or two difference in annual economic growth changes results dramatically. Demographics are important, but they're not everything.
  - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
    Economic growth is a function of population increasing. Slides 31 onward are most relevant in the first link in my comment you replied to. We're not arguing growth figures, but direction based on underlying population demographics. You cannot financially engineer your way out of declining populations.
    - laughing_man 7mo ago
      Economic growth is a function of a lot of things, not just increasing population.
      - deleted 7mo ago
        [deleted]

toomuchtodo 7mo ago

"Demographics are destiny." https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbea597263a88f27075bd6eb49_17385_suerf.pdf https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbe... https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2020/09/18/the-great-demographic-reversal-and-what-it-means-for-the-economy/ https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2020/09/18/the-great-...

yabutlivnWoods 7mo ago
Your links are about raw meat suit numbers. Not future political and economic policy. Through diplomacy it could be decided by future generations they aren't paying off the tab accrued by then long dead Boomers and Big Tech Bro billionaire GenXers, wipe it all out with a debt jubilee. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_jubilee https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_jubilee
- toomuchtodo 7mo ago
  If you'd like to bet on this occurring, let me know! We'll spin up a Long Bet. https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/
  - deleted 7mo ago
    [deleted]
  - yabutlivnWoods 7mo ago
    Right; so you realize this isn't a certainty. If raw numbers mattered why didn't China and India get to the moon first? They had billions more people than the US this whole time. Signal propagation through a populace is physical scaling problem. A future pandemic here, populist revolt there; long dead dear leaders efforts fall apart. See the end of New Deal as that generation died off. So my point stands the content of future political discourse and economic policy matters; despite billions more people in India and China in the 1960s, they were not chanting "we choose to go to the moon". They were far more tribal societies back then. See America becoming more tribal and norms falling apart. Will keep relying in my first hand experience engineering hardware, seeing with my own eyes how difficult stable signal propagation is.
laughing_man 7mo ago
The issue I have with demographic arguments over that kind of time period is a percent or two difference in annual economic growth changes results dramatically. Demographics are important, but they're not everything.
- toomuchtodo 7mo ago
  Economic growth is a function of population increasing. Slides 31 onward are most relevant in the first link in my comment you replied to. We're not arguing growth figures, but direction based on underlying population demographics. You cannot financially engineer your way out of declining populations.
  - laughing_man 7mo ago
    Economic growth is a function of a lot of things, not just increasing population.
    - deleted 7mo ago
      [deleted]