3 ms·
Intrade is just one such place to bet. See others listed here: http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner http://
by nostromo 14y ago
Intrade is just one such place to bet. See others listed here: http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us...
SkyBet and Ladbrokers for example both have payouts closer to 538's forecast.
What is peculiar is that Intrade is the outlier. In a liquid market this shouldn't happen because it allows for risk-free payouts. So something seems a bit odd about Intrade.
It's possible the campaigns have caught on to Intrade's impact on the media and will now step in when prices fall to much. </conspiracy>
- rms 14y agoIt's very clearly true that one or more backers of Romney are manipulating Intrade. This makes buying Obama on Intrade a spectacular deal.
- usaar333 14y agoIt isn't entirely liquid. It's a pain to get money into Intrade (esp. for an American). IEM (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html) and Intrade were up until yesterday off by 10%. Eventually things moved closer, but regulatory hurdles in actually getting money in (+ limits on funding) really hurt arbitrage opportunities.
- WarDekar 14y agoIt's really not difficult at all to get money into Intrade as an American. I had wires show up day-of if I did it early enough or next-day in every other case. Also of note is that other betting markets were consistently higher than Intrade was for all of the last 6 months basically- there are a lot of theories as to why this may be, but it's regularly been 5%+ lower on Obama.