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Unquestionably. As weird as this sounds, militarily and strategically, Iraq was a relative "success". I mean not to the thousands or millions harmed or killed

by jmyeet 7mo ago

Unquestionably. As weird as this sounds, militarily and strategically, Iraq was a relative "success". I mean not to the thousands or millions harmed or killed by US actions and all the damage done along the way, but Iraq now does a US-friendly regime and it exports oil to the US and a bunch of allies. Should we have done it? No. Was it worth the price? No. But was it a complete failure? Also, no. Unlike Iraq, there's no way to invade Iran. it's surrounded by mountains on 3 sides and ocean on the third. It's a country is ~93 million people with a regime and a military specifically designed to resist US bombardment and interference. The chokehold it has on the Strait of Hormuz is currently being demonstrated. And there's nothing the US can do about that. If the leaked terms of the 15 point plan are true (and that's a big IF) and any end to hostilities looks remotely like that, Iran is going to end up in a substantially better position than they had under the JCPOA and sanctions will also likely end. That's now the price of peace. And in doing that the US has worsened and likely will redefine its relationship to every country from Spain to Japan. It is the biggest own goal in US history.

master_crab 7mo ago
I don’t disagree with any of your assessments, but I don’t know if it’s a bigger mistake than Iraq…yet. That war was a 10 year (longer if you bc point ISIS) debacle that cost trillions. Let’s wait a few years before saying this mistake is bigger first. However, one point that I agree with that might lead to this war being worse: the Gulf are showing some serious buyers remorse with sticking in the US orbit. Both the uselessness of America’s strategy and the almost clear prejudice Trump shows towards the Arabs vs Israel in the decision tree of this conflict is unsettling for the Gulf states.
ethbr1 7mo ago
> And there's nothing the US can do about that. 1. Send Marines to seize Kharg island via long range air assault from 2 ARGs + land bases 2. Flood Kharg-adjacent mainland with tactical aviation to eliminate short range artillery and rocket systems 3. Fortify position on Kharg island and declare all oil revenue will be placed in US-controlled holding account, with release to Iran contingent on cooperation (re: Why occupy Kharg? Because then you have actual money in an account as leverage, while calming international oil prices and consumers, not just a blockade, which antagonizes international oil consumers) 4. Declare a buffer demilitarized zone around the Strait of Hormuz 5. Land Marines in buffer zone if necessary to monitor ~50% of the revenue to pay the Iranian military comes from oil exports. Therefore, the Iranian regime doesn't survive without oil export revenue. 90% of Iranian oil is exported through Kharg. It's an aggressive plan, but it's feasible. Especially because Iran has no ability to repel an invasion of the island or retake it once it's occupied. Their only possible reaction would be to bombard troops there, destroying their own export infrastructure in the process. Which would depend on how close to the mat the current regime wants to take this, as that would also seal their eventual downfall.
- ifyoubuildit 7mo ago
  "Their only possible reaction would be to bombard troops there, destroying their own export infrastructure in the process." Right, so if that's their only possible reaction, isn't that a bad thing for everyone? It looks like they've made it clear they're not going down without bringing everyone else with them, and why would they? What options do they have?
  - franktankbank 7mo ago
    > they've made it clear they're not going down without bringing everyone else with them Isn't that exactly what you would say even if you didn't mean it?
    - ethbr1 7mo ago
      You'd think everyone would have learned by this point that none of the belligerent major world powers mean what they say anymore. Definitely not Russia, China, and the US. They all transparently see diplomacy and messaging around it as a tool of war. Small surprise when others do too.
    - ifyoubuildit 7mo ago
      I mean they seem to have made it clear by their actions. They're in an existential situation, so its not like there is any reason to hold anything back. If your opponent is trying to turn you into Libya, then whatever you do just has to not fail as badly as that for it to be the right move. You basically become a cornered animal.
      - ethbr1 7mo ago
        The thing about disintegrating regimes is there is no "they". There's people with power, looking out for their own self interests. You think after a few more weeks all of the newly promoted Iranian military leadership is going to weigh a few million dollars in personal benefit against the glory of the cause and decide on the latter?

by jmyeet 7mo ago

master_crab 7mo ago

I don’t disagree with any of your assessments, but I don’t know if it’s a bigger mistake than Iraq…yet. That war was a 10 year (longer if you bc point ISIS) debacle that cost trillions. Let’s wait a few years before saying this mistake is bigger first. However, one point that I agree with that might lead to this war being worse: the Gulf are showing some serious buyers remorse with sticking in the US orbit. Both the uselessness of America’s strategy and the almost clear prejudice Trump shows towards the Arabs vs Israel in the decision tree of this conflict is unsettling for the Gulf states.

ethbr1 7mo ago

> And there's nothing the US can do about that. 1. Send Marines to seize Kharg island via long range air assault from 2 ARGs + land bases 2. Flood Kharg-adjacent mainland with tactical aviation to eliminate short range artillery and rocket systems 3. Fortify position on Kharg island and declare all oil revenue will be placed in US-controlled holding account, with release to Iran contingent on cooperation (re: Why occupy Kharg? Because then you have actual money in an account as leverage, while calming international oil prices and consumers, not just a blockade, which antagonizes international oil consumers) 4. Declare a buffer demilitarized zone around the Strait of Hormuz 5. Land Marines in buffer zone if necessary to monitor ~50% of the revenue to pay the Iranian military comes from oil exports. Therefore, the Iranian regime doesn't survive without oil export revenue. 90% of Iranian oil is exported through Kharg. It's an aggressive plan, but it's feasible. Especially because Iran has no ability to repel an invasion of the island or retake it once it's occupied. Their only possible reaction would be to bombard troops there, destroying their own export infrastructure in the process. Which would depend on how close to the mat the current regime wants to take this, as that would also seal their eventual downfall.

ifyoubuildit 7mo ago
"Their only possible reaction would be to bombard troops there, destroying their own export infrastructure in the process." Right, so if that's their only possible reaction, isn't that a bad thing for everyone? It looks like they've made it clear they're not going down without bringing everyone else with them, and why would they? What options do they have?
- franktankbank 7mo ago
  > they've made it clear they're not going down without bringing everyone else with them Isn't that exactly what you would say even if you didn't mean it?
  - ethbr1 7mo ago
    You'd think everyone would have learned by this point that none of the belligerent major world powers mean what they say anymore. Definitely not Russia, China, and the US. They all transparently see diplomacy and messaging around it as a tool of war. Small surprise when others do too.
  - ifyoubuildit 7mo ago
    I mean they seem to have made it clear by their actions. They're in an existential situation, so its not like there is any reason to hold anything back. If your opponent is trying to turn you into Libya, then whatever you do just has to not fail as badly as that for it to be the right move. You basically become a cornered animal.
    - ethbr1 7mo ago
      The thing about disintegrating regimes is there is no "they". There's people with power, looking out for their own self interests. You think after a few more weeks all of the newly promoted Iranian military leadership is going to weigh a few million dollars in personal benefit against the glory of the cause and decide on the latter?