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What will US public do if US in Iran ends up like Russia in Ukraine, recruiting 30K soldiers every month to die in middle east? Maybe at this time they are hav

by mrtksn 7mo ago

What will US public do if US in Iran ends up like Russia in Ukraine, recruiting 30K soldiers every month to die in middle east? Maybe at this time they are having trouble recruiting but just like Russia US has large prison population that may like the offer thar Russian prisoners got: 6 months on the frontlines, if you survive you are free and well paid. Just today Iran backed militants released a video of drones takings out US helicopters and radars, very similar to what we are used to seeing in Ukraine. Is US public really ready to support such a thing and endure hardship like the Russians for ideological causes? It’s fascinating, maybe Trump is right- maybe his supporters are literally tired of winning and want attrition?

BobbyJo 7mo ago
I don't think the US has the culture to support this. I do not think Trump has the political capital to support this. Assuming elections still happen, that scenario would mean the end of the Republican party.
- mrtksn 7mo ago
  I used to think the same but according to the polls I keep seeing the support for war seems to be very strong, up to %100 among MAGA in fact. They used to say they are against war, against "jewish influence", against this against that but nothing seems to be changing their minds. I thought that this high ranking MAGA dude who resign over "Israel influence concerns" and immediately did rounds on the MAGA-sphere popular outlets doesn't seem to have any influence on the support for the war. They don't appear to be ideologues but demagogues. Maybe its some more primal urge to kill and get killed and Trump has control over it?
  - testfoobar 7mo ago
    "Exclusive: Trump's approval hits new 36% low as fuel prices surge amid Iran war, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds" https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-approval-hits-new-36-low-fuel-prices-surge-amid-iran-war-reutersipsos-2026-03-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-approval-hits-new-36...
    - mrtksn 7mo ago
      Thats the general public that apparently doesn't have any grip. You can do whatever you want if tens of millions of people + the billionaires support you till the end when hundreds of millions are mildly annoyed by you.
  - rsynnott 7mo ago
    It looks like about 30-40% of Americans look upon Trump's war favourably. That's _very_ low; I'm pretty sure that that's the worst _any_ American war has polls this early on. Approval of the Iraq war didn't fall under 50% until _2005_, and didn't hit 40% til 2008. > up to %100 among MAGA in fact. Sure, but I mean if Trump shat himself live on TV, he'd probably get about 90% MAGA approval for that, too. That's not really the point.
  - BobbyJo 7mo ago
    > 100% among MAGA So, 100% of the people that made Trump their personality think he's doing a good job? Not a great barometer.
ars 7mo ago
> of drones takings out US helicopters They attacked a HH-60M Medevac helicopter which is a war crime, and also explains why it wasn't protected. Also, the radar was Iraqi, although possibly jointly operated with the US.
- mrtksn 7mo ago
  No one cares about war crimes since years, US itself is allied in this war with credibly alleged war criminals. Besides, there's much to do against drones reaching a base other than locking down the gear in reinforced building and that's not practical when the gear is used which means whatever is on the open gets blown up. The Russians were putting tires on the wings, it did not help much.
  - ars 7mo ago
    I know no one cares, rather I was explaining why this Iranian hit is not a demonstration of any great success, they were hitting an unprotected target, in a non-US base.
    - mrtksn 7mo ago
      I don't think that anything is protected against these drones unless locked down in a string building and not in use.
- analognoise 7mo ago
  Bombing boats of Venezuela was a war crime: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/are-deadly-us-strikes-alleged-drug-vessels-legal-2025-10-31/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/are-deadly-us-strikes...
toast0 7mo ago
In Vietnam, there were 58k US dead for the whole war. US military dead in WWII was 400k. 30K dead/month gets you to WWII losses in a little over a year. US dead in Afghanistan and Iraq was much less. I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I don't think the US public would accept losses on the order of 30k/month: there would be massive demonstrations and congress would likely act to cause disengagement.

by mrtksn 7mo ago

BobbyJo 7mo ago

I don't think the US has the culture to support this. I do not think Trump has the political capital to support this. Assuming elections still happen, that scenario would mean the end of the Republican party.

mrtksn 7mo ago
I used to think the same but according to the polls I keep seeing the support for war seems to be very strong, up to %100 among MAGA in fact. They used to say they are against war, against "jewish influence", against this against that but nothing seems to be changing their minds. I thought that this high ranking MAGA dude who resign over "Israel influence concerns" and immediately did rounds on the MAGA-sphere popular outlets doesn't seem to have any influence on the support for the war. They don't appear to be ideologues but demagogues. Maybe its some more primal urge to kill and get killed and Trump has control over it?
- testfoobar 7mo ago
  "Exclusive: Trump's approval hits new 36% low as fuel prices surge amid Iran war, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds" https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-approval-hits-new-36-low-fuel-prices-surge-amid-iran-war-reutersipsos-2026-03-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-approval-hits-new-36...
  - mrtksn 7mo ago
    Thats the general public that apparently doesn't have any grip. You can do whatever you want if tens of millions of people + the billionaires support you till the end when hundreds of millions are mildly annoyed by you.
- rsynnott 7mo ago
  It looks like about 30-40% of Americans look upon Trump's war favourably. That's _very_ low; I'm pretty sure that that's the worst _any_ American war has polls this early on. Approval of the Iraq war didn't fall under 50% until _2005_, and didn't hit 40% til 2008. > up to %100 among MAGA in fact. Sure, but I mean if Trump shat himself live on TV, he'd probably get about 90% MAGA approval for that, too. That's not really the point.
- BobbyJo 7mo ago
  > 100% among MAGA So, 100% of the people that made Trump their personality think he's doing a good job? Not a great barometer.

ars 7mo ago

> of drones takings out US helicopters They attacked a HH-60M Medevac helicopter which is a war crime, and also explains why it wasn't protected. Also, the radar was Iraqi, although possibly jointly operated with the US.

mrtksn 7mo ago
No one cares about war crimes since years, US itself is allied in this war with credibly alleged war criminals. Besides, there's much to do against drones reaching a base other than locking down the gear in reinforced building and that's not practical when the gear is used which means whatever is on the open gets blown up. The Russians were putting tires on the wings, it did not help much.
- ars 7mo ago
  I know no one cares, rather I was explaining why this Iranian hit is not a demonstration of any great success, they were hitting an unprotected target, in a non-US base.
  - mrtksn 7mo ago
    I don't think that anything is protected against these drones unless locked down in a string building and not in use.
analognoise 7mo ago
Bombing boats of Venezuela was a war crime: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/are-deadly-us-strikes-alleged-drug-vessels-legal-2025-10-31/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/are-deadly-us-strikes...

toast0 7mo ago

In Vietnam, there were 58k US dead for the whole war. US military dead in WWII was 400k. 30K dead/month gets you to WWII losses in a little over a year. US dead in Afghanistan and Iraq was much less. I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I don't think the US public would accept losses on the order of 30k/month: there would be massive demonstrations and congress would likely act to cause disengagement.