4 ms·

This war of choice is going to redefine the US's policy and relationships with Middle East, China, Russia and Europe for the rest of the century. Even if it end

by jmyeet 7mo ago

This war of choice is going to redefine the US's policy and relationships with Middle East, China, Russia and Europe for the rest of the century. Even if it ends tomorrow. Mainly because the only way it ends tomorrow is if sanctions on Iran are lifted. And they should be lifted anyway so I'd be a fan of that. China, Iran and Russia look to the the big winners here. Everyone else is a loser, the US the biggest loser of them all. In history books I think this will go down as the biggest geopolitical miscalculation and mistake in US history of anything to date and it's not even close. The Middle East consists of a bunch of US client states where arms are used to maintain fealty. The US gives arms to a despotic regime who enrich themselves off of their country's natural resources and they use those arms to stay in power. This last month has shown the US security guarantee to the Gulf to be a paper tiger. This is a seismic potential rift between the US and Israel. This war of choice has undermined relationship with long-term allies (eg in Europe) who were never consulted and never approved of this war and may suffer with significantly higher electricity prices as a result. This is a Napoleon invading Russia level of blunder.

vasco 7mo ago
Not sure how iran is winning while getting destroyed. It'll be another refugee crisis
- esseph 7mo ago
  Winning for Iran, their whole strategy, is that their pressure on the straight hurts the US and world economy to a devastating level. What the US is gearing up for right now is a multiyear war where the US military goes into the island tunnels and tries to hold the Straight open by force.
rayiner 7mo ago
> biggest geopolitical miscalculation and mistake in US history of anything to date and it's not even close Bigger than Iraq?
- jmyeet 7mo ago
  Unquestionably. As weird as this sounds, militarily and strategically, Iraq was a relative "success". I mean not to the thousands or millions harmed or killed by US actions and all the damage done along the way, but Iraq now does a US-friendly regime and it exports oil to the US and a bunch of allies. Should we have done it? No. Was it worth the price? No. But was it a complete failure? Also, no. Unlike Iraq, there's no way to invade Iran. it's surrounded by mountains on 3 sides and ocean on the third. It's a country is ~93 million people with a regime and a military specifically designed to resist US bombardment and interference. The chokehold it has on the Strait of Hormuz is currently being demonstrated. And there's nothing the US can do about that. If the leaked terms of the 15 point plan are true (and that's a big IF) and any end to hostilities looks remotely like that, Iran is going to end up in a substantially better position than they had under the JCPOA and sanctions will also likely end. That's now the price of peace. And in doing that the US has worsened and likely will redefine its relationship to every country from Spain to Japan. It is the biggest own goal in US history.
  - master_crab 7mo ago
    I don’t disagree with any of your assessments, but I don’t know if it’s a bigger mistake than Iraq…yet. That war was a 10 year (longer if you bc point ISIS) debacle that cost trillions. Let’s wait a few years before saying this mistake is bigger first. However, one point that I agree with that might lead to this war being worse: the Gulf are showing some serious buyers remorse with sticking in the US orbit. Both the uselessness of America’s strategy and the almost clear prejudice Trump shows towards the Arabs vs Israel in the decision tree of this conflict is unsettling for the Gulf states.
  - ethbr1 7mo ago
    > And there's nothing the US can do about that. 1. Send Marines to seize Kharg island via long range air assault from 2 ARGs + land bases 2. Flood Kharg-adjacent mainland with tactical aviation to eliminate short range artillery and rocket systems 3. Fortify position on Kharg island and declare all oil revenue will be placed in US-controlled holding account, with release to Iran contingent on cooperation (re: Why occupy Kharg? Because then you have actual money in an account as leverage, while calming international oil prices and consumers, not just a blockade, which antagonizes international oil consumers) 4. Declare a buffer demilitarized zone around the Strait of Hormuz 5. Land Marines in buffer zone if necessary to monitor ~50% of the revenue to pay the Iranian military comes from oil exports. Therefore, the Iranian regime doesn't survive without oil export revenue. 90% of Iranian oil is exported through Kharg. It's an aggressive plan, but it's feasible. Especially because Iran has no ability to repel an invasion of the island or retake it once it's occupied. Their only possible reaction would be to bombard troops there, destroying their own export infrastructure in the process. Which would depend on how close to the mat the current regime wants to take this, as that would also seal their eventual downfall.

by jmyeet 7mo ago

vasco 7mo ago

Not sure how iran is winning while getting destroyed. It'll be another refugee crisis

esseph 7mo ago
Winning for Iran, their whole strategy, is that their pressure on the straight hurts the US and world economy to a devastating level. What the US is gearing up for right now is a multiyear war where the US military goes into the island tunnels and tries to hold the Straight open by force.

rayiner 7mo ago

> biggest geopolitical miscalculation and mistake in US history of anything to date and it's not even close Bigger than Iraq?

jmyeet 7mo ago
Unquestionably. As weird as this sounds, militarily and strategically, Iraq was a relative "success". I mean not to the thousands or millions harmed or killed by US actions and all the damage done along the way, but Iraq now does a US-friendly regime and it exports oil to the US and a bunch of allies. Should we have done it? No. Was it worth the price? No. But was it a complete failure? Also, no. Unlike Iraq, there's no way to invade Iran. it's surrounded by mountains on 3 sides and ocean on the third. It's a country is ~93 million people with a regime and a military specifically designed to resist US bombardment and interference. The chokehold it has on the Strait of Hormuz is currently being demonstrated. And there's nothing the US can do about that. If the leaked terms of the 15 point plan are true (and that's a big IF) and any end to hostilities looks remotely like that, Iran is going to end up in a substantially better position than they had under the JCPOA and sanctions will also likely end. That's now the price of peace. And in doing that the US has worsened and likely will redefine its relationship to every country from Spain to Japan. It is the biggest own goal in US history.
- master_crab 7mo ago
  I don’t disagree with any of your assessments, but I don’t know if it’s a bigger mistake than Iraq…yet. That war was a 10 year (longer if you bc point ISIS) debacle that cost trillions. Let’s wait a few years before saying this mistake is bigger first. However, one point that I agree with that might lead to this war being worse: the Gulf are showing some serious buyers remorse with sticking in the US orbit. Both the uselessness of America’s strategy and the almost clear prejudice Trump shows towards the Arabs vs Israel in the decision tree of this conflict is unsettling for the Gulf states.
- ethbr1 7mo ago
  > And there's nothing the US can do about that. 1. Send Marines to seize Kharg island via long range air assault from 2 ARGs + land bases 2. Flood Kharg-adjacent mainland with tactical aviation to eliminate short range artillery and rocket systems 3. Fortify position on Kharg island and declare all oil revenue will be placed in US-controlled holding account, with release to Iran contingent on cooperation (re: Why occupy Kharg? Because then you have actual money in an account as leverage, while calming international oil prices and consumers, not just a blockade, which antagonizes international oil consumers) 4. Declare a buffer demilitarized zone around the Strait of Hormuz 5. Land Marines in buffer zone if necessary to monitor ~50% of the revenue to pay the Iranian military comes from oil exports. Therefore, the Iranian regime doesn't survive without oil export revenue. 90% of Iranian oil is exported through Kharg. It's an aggressive plan, but it's feasible. Especially because Iran has no ability to repel an invasion of the island or retake it once it's occupied. Their only possible reaction would be to bombard troops there, destroying their own export infrastructure in the process. Which would depend on how close to the mat the current regime wants to take this, as that would also seal their eventual downfall.