4 ms·

It’ll trigger a lot of political pressure which in turn will trigger more war Expensive oil has a lot of repercussions

by r0fl 7mo ago

deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
hedora 7mo ago
Either that, or it will force most countries to electrify their economies, which has made economic + ecological sense for decades. The oil interests will do everything they can to fight it. (Like buying off Trump, which probably had a lot to do with us starting the Iran war, and is certainly why we're cancelling many affordable energy build outs in the face of widespread shortages.) Less corrupt economies will pull ahead, and technological progress will bifurcate. The US will probably be on the wrong side of this. China will probably be on the right side.
- adi_kurian 7mo ago
  How quickly could we electrify our economies and what dent in oil dependence could be made with a will?
  - adrianN 7mo ago
    I doubt people here can give realistic estimates as to how quickly we can ramp up the production of e.g. heat pumps, since a lot depends on how much we're willing to pay for it. There are many areas where we have the technology to electrify, we just don't do it because at current fuel prices pay back times for electrification are too long. There are also simple things like better insulation for buildings that can dramatically reduce fuel demands.
    - fy20 7mo ago
      The US produces much more natural gas than it consumes, so changes like this don't really make sense. Europe started implementing these initiatives a couple of decades ago, it makes sense there as they are a net importer, with residential prices around 3x higher than the US. In my country a newly built house (very low energy demand) is often cheaper to heat with a heat pump than natural gas, especially if combined with solar PV - but that's still more expensive than a home in the US. The most impactful usages are transportation, as everywhere basically everything is transported by road, and renewable electricity generation, so fossil fuels can be used elsewhere (residential, industrial, etc).
  - eucyclos 7mo ago
    Europe, particularly Germany, has quite a will. Maybe a little faster than that given there are lessons to be gleaned from it.
- samaltmanfried 7mo ago
  > Like buying off Trump, which probably had a lot to do with us starting the Iran war... Oil companies have actually not benefited from America's middle-eastern wars. America's regime-change wars have made the region less profitable for US oil companies. Why invest in infrastructure in countries with unstable regimes, or risk of infrastructure becoming a target? If anything, energy companies would benefit from the sanctions on Iran being lifted, so they could invest in infrastructure there, or buy gas from Iran. I hope one day this silly 'war for oil' meme will disappear.
  - BLKNSLVR 7mo ago
    cough Russia cough
- rayiner 7mo ago
  > Like buying off Trump That’s a weird thing to say considering that the Iran hostage crisis helped swing an election almost half a century ago. It’s not like nobody thought about going to Iran until someone bribed Trump to do it. The far more rational theory is that Trump did it to deflect from his failure to combat inflation domestically. They made an entire movie about his. (Wag the Dog.)
jmyeet 7mo ago
This war of choice is going to redefine the US's policy and relationships with Middle East, China, Russia and Europe for the rest of the century. Even if it ends tomorrow. Mainly because the only way it ends tomorrow is if sanctions on Iran are lifted. And they should be lifted anyway so I'd be a fan of that. China, Iran and Russia look to the the big winners here. Everyone else is a loser, the US the biggest loser of them all. In history books I think this will go down as the biggest geopolitical miscalculation and mistake in US history of anything to date and it's not even close. The Middle East consists of a bunch of US client states where arms are used to maintain fealty. The US gives arms to a despotic regime who enrich themselves off of their country's natural resources and they use those arms to stay in power. This last month has shown the US security guarantee to the Gulf to be a paper tiger. This is a seismic potential rift between the US and Israel. This war of choice has undermined relationship with long-term allies (eg in Europe) who were never consulted and never approved of this war and may suffer with significantly higher electricity prices as a result. This is a Napoleon invading Russia level of blunder.
- vasco 7mo ago
  Not sure how iran is winning while getting destroyed. It'll be another refugee crisis
  - esseph 7mo ago
    Winning for Iran, their whole strategy, is that their pressure on the straight hurts the US and world economy to a devastating level. What the US is gearing up for right now is a multiyear war where the US military goes into the island tunnels and tries to hold the Straight open by force.
- rayiner 7mo ago
  > biggest geopolitical miscalculation and mistake in US history of anything to date and it's not even close Bigger than Iraq?
  - jmyeet 7mo ago
bryanlarsen 7mo ago
Many people believe the root cause of the Arab Spring set of insurrections and wars was food inflation. And it's now a lot more expensive then what kicked off the Arab Spring.
- ethbr1 7mo ago
  The difference with oil inflation is that it also directly boosts revenues in oil-producing Middle Eastern countries. Consequently, they can offset core staple inflation (and usually choose to) to decrease unrest. It's core inflation without high oil prices that torpedoes their fiscal options.
  - bryanlarsen 7mo ago
    Perhaps it makes it less likely in the middle East, but it makes it much more likely in countries vulnerable to both oil & food price inflation. The immigration crisis caused by Arab spring toppled many governments in Europe. If a similar set of crises happened in the Americas it would make the US's illegal immigration situation much worse.
    - red-iron-pine 7mo ago
      > The immigration crisis caused by Arab spring toppled many governments in Europe. that was entirely of their own making, though

It’ll trigger a lot of political pressure which in turn will trigger more war Expensive oil has a lot of repercussions

by r0fl 7mo ago

It’ll trigger a lot of political pressure which in turn will trigger more war Expensive oil has a lot of repercussions

deleted 7mo ago

[deleted]

hedora 7mo ago

Either that, or it will force most countries to electrify their economies, which has made economic + ecological sense for decades. The oil interests will do everything they can to fight it. (Like buying off Trump, which probably had a lot to do with us starting the Iran war, and is certainly why we're cancelling many affordable energy build outs in the face of widespread shortages.) Less corrupt economies will pull ahead, and technological progress will bifurcate. The US will probably be on the wrong side of this. China will probably be on the right side.

adi_kurian 7mo ago
How quickly could we electrify our economies and what dent in oil dependence could be made with a will?
- adrianN 7mo ago
  I doubt people here can give realistic estimates as to how quickly we can ramp up the production of e.g. heat pumps, since a lot depends on how much we're willing to pay for it. There are many areas where we have the technology to electrify, we just don't do it because at current fuel prices pay back times for electrification are too long. There are also simple things like better insulation for buildings that can dramatically reduce fuel demands.
  - fy20 7mo ago
    The US produces much more natural gas than it consumes, so changes like this don't really make sense. Europe started implementing these initiatives a couple of decades ago, it makes sense there as they are a net importer, with residential prices around 3x higher than the US. In my country a newly built house (very low energy demand) is often cheaper to heat with a heat pump than natural gas, especially if combined with solar PV - but that's still more expensive than a home in the US. The most impactful usages are transportation, as everywhere basically everything is transported by road, and renewable electricity generation, so fossil fuels can be used elsewhere (residential, industrial, etc).
- eucyclos 7mo ago
  Europe, particularly Germany, has quite a will. Maybe a little faster than that given there are lessons to be gleaned from it.
samaltmanfried 7mo ago
> Like buying off Trump, which probably had a lot to do with us starting the Iran war... Oil companies have actually not benefited from America's middle-eastern wars. America's regime-change wars have made the region less profitable for US oil companies. Why invest in infrastructure in countries with unstable regimes, or risk of infrastructure becoming a target? If anything, energy companies would benefit from the sanctions on Iran being lifted, so they could invest in infrastructure there, or buy gas from Iran. I hope one day this silly 'war for oil' meme will disappear.
- BLKNSLVR 7mo ago
  cough Russia cough
rayiner 7mo ago
> Like buying off Trump That’s a weird thing to say considering that the Iran hostage crisis helped swing an election almost half a century ago. It’s not like nobody thought about going to Iran until someone bribed Trump to do it. The far more rational theory is that Trump did it to deflect from his failure to combat inflation domestically. They made an entire movie about his. (Wag the Dog.)

jmyeet 7mo ago

This war of choice is going to redefine the US's policy and relationships with Middle East, China, Russia and Europe for the rest of the century. Even if it ends tomorrow. Mainly because the only way it ends tomorrow is if sanctions on Iran are lifted. And they should be lifted anyway so I'd be a fan of that. China, Iran and Russia look to the the big winners here. Everyone else is a loser, the US the biggest loser of them all. In history books I think this will go down as the biggest geopolitical miscalculation and mistake in US history of anything to date and it's not even close. The Middle East consists of a bunch of US client states where arms are used to maintain fealty. The US gives arms to a despotic regime who enrich themselves off of their country's natural resources and they use those arms to stay in power. This last month has shown the US security guarantee to the Gulf to be a paper tiger. This is a seismic potential rift between the US and Israel. This war of choice has undermined relationship with long-term allies (eg in Europe) who were never consulted and never approved of this war and may suffer with significantly higher electricity prices as a result. This is a Napoleon invading Russia level of blunder.

vasco 7mo ago
Not sure how iran is winning while getting destroyed. It'll be another refugee crisis
- esseph 7mo ago
  Winning for Iran, their whole strategy, is that their pressure on the straight hurts the US and world economy to a devastating level. What the US is gearing up for right now is a multiyear war where the US military goes into the island tunnels and tries to hold the Straight open by force.
rayiner 7mo ago
> biggest geopolitical miscalculation and mistake in US history of anything to date and it's not even close Bigger than Iraq?
- jmyeet 7mo ago

bryanlarsen 7mo ago

Many people believe the root cause of the Arab Spring set of insurrections and wars was food inflation. And it's now a lot more expensive then what kicked off the Arab Spring.

ethbr1 7mo ago
The difference with oil inflation is that it also directly boosts revenues in oil-producing Middle Eastern countries. Consequently, they can offset core staple inflation (and usually choose to) to decrease unrest. It's core inflation without high oil prices that torpedoes their fiscal options.
- bryanlarsen 7mo ago
  Perhaps it makes it less likely in the middle East, but it makes it much more likely in countries vulnerable to both oil & food price inflation. The immigration crisis caused by Arab spring toppled many governments in Europe. If a similar set of crises happened in the Americas it would make the US's illegal immigration situation much worse.
  - red-iron-pine 7mo ago
    > The immigration crisis caused by Arab spring toppled many governments in Europe. that was entirely of their own making, though