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> Of course people don't realize that, and people will buy ARM stock thinking they've cracked AGI. Doesn't seem like a very credible assertion. Picking stocks

by 0x3f 7mo ago

> Of course people don't realize that, and people will buy ARM stock thinking they've cracked AGI. Doesn't seem like a very credible assertion. Picking stocks in this way would remove you from the market pretty quickly.

PessimalDecimal 7mo ago
Didn't random companies add block chain to their names only just a few years ago and get 30+% jumps in stock price immediately?
- 0x3f 7mo ago
  > Just because the stock goes up doesn't mean anyone was tricked. People invest in sentiment, in momentum, in all kinds of second order effects.
  - sincerely 7mo ago
    Wouldn’t those second order effects be downstream of the first order effect of people being tricked?
    - elictronic 7mo ago
      Run trading bot looking for news feeds with specific terms. Buy stocks based on this. Understand your fellow humans are lazy and stupid. If you can’t read past the first word of a news article maybe that person shouldn’t be allowed to trade stocks.
- bee_rider 7mo ago
  That’s quite different, BlockChain was a buzzword label for existing tech. AGI is a label for something we famously haven’t achieved, and which would be revolutionary if we had. This seems more like calling your spaceship company, I dunno, “Interplanetary Passengers” or something.
  - serf 7mo ago
    AGI is a buzzword too, it's just differently applied. In this case it's a word that means the thing we're all developing towards apparently, but that no one actually knows how to get or even how to measure whether or not we've already gotten it , and no one really knows what will happen when it's achieeved, if it hasn't already been. It's a bit like an even wackier more-corporate version of The Quest for the Holy Grail. And the honest one true test for "is it a buzzword?" : Did a corporate group brand a flagship with it? "RISC architecture is going to change everything!"
  - antonvs 7mo ago
    Or naming one of your launch vehicles “Starship”.
tombert 7mo ago
I didn't say it would be a wise decision to pick stocks that way, but this has already happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Blockchain_Corp https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Blockchain_Corp. Does an iced tea company changing their name to Long Blockchain make any sense? No, not really, it's pretty stupid actually, but it managed to bump the stock by apparently 380%. The stock market can be pretty dumb sometimes. Let's not forget the weird GME bubble.
- 0x3f 7mo ago
  [flagged]
  - tombert 7mo ago
    Where did I say I was smarter than everyone else? I certainly don’t think that and I didn’t mean to imply it if I did. I do think I know more than the average person about computers. Probably most people on this forum can say that. People who know about computers are more likely to be able to smell bullshit with a name like AGI. It’s not that I am smarter, I wouldn’t be able to call bullshit with anything involving chemistry or physics. I think, like Long Blockchain, ARM is abusing that world’s collective computer illiteracy and trying to harvest investor money in the process. Clearly this has worked once, as was the case of Long Blockchain. > People invest in sentiment, in momentum, in all kinds of second order effects. Yep! And this is why it is wrong for corporations to put out incorrect or misleading statements, as it creates a sentiment that is not realistic. This can then propagate in the form of the stock price not being realistic.
    - 0x3f 7mo ago
      I just don't believe even a person with a poor understanding of the market or the underlying technology tosses out bets so casually based only on a name, in the sense that they believe 'oh wow this is actually AGI, I should buy it'. It's different for them to toss out a bet on the basis of 'other people will think this is AGI, I should buy it in anticipation of that' or even 'other people will think other people will think this is AGI, I should buy in anticipation of that'. People playing the Keynesian beauty contest are not, to me, naive participants in the market getting scammed by a company adding 'AGI' to a product. The idea that the first-order person exists in any great number is just so insulting to the average person's intelligence that it's hard not to read it in a paternalistic tone.
wiml 7mo ago
Yes, that's how fraud works a lot of the time. It removes you from the market but not until after it's removed your money. And there's an endless supply of new people ready to make the same mistake after you've learned your lesson.

by 0x3f 7mo ago

PessimalDecimal 7mo ago

Didn't random companies add block chain to their names only just a few years ago and get 30+% jumps in stock price immediately?

0x3f 7mo ago
> Just because the stock goes up doesn't mean anyone was tricked. People invest in sentiment, in momentum, in all kinds of second order effects.
- sincerely 7mo ago
  Wouldn’t those second order effects be downstream of the first order effect of people being tricked?
  - elictronic 7mo ago
    Run trading bot looking for news feeds with specific terms. Buy stocks based on this. Understand your fellow humans are lazy and stupid. If you can’t read past the first word of a news article maybe that person shouldn’t be allowed to trade stocks.
bee_rider 7mo ago
That’s quite different, BlockChain was a buzzword label for existing tech. AGI is a label for something we famously haven’t achieved, and which would be revolutionary if we had. This seems more like calling your spaceship company, I dunno, “Interplanetary Passengers” or something.
- serf 7mo ago
  AGI is a buzzword too, it's just differently applied. In this case it's a word that means the thing we're all developing towards apparently, but that no one actually knows how to get or even how to measure whether or not we've already gotten it , and no one really knows what will happen when it's achieeved, if it hasn't already been. It's a bit like an even wackier more-corporate version of The Quest for the Holy Grail. And the honest one true test for "is it a buzzword?" : Did a corporate group brand a flagship with it? "RISC architecture is going to change everything!"
- antonvs 7mo ago
  Or naming one of your launch vehicles “Starship”.

tombert 7mo ago

I didn't say it would be a wise decision to pick stocks that way, but this has already happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Blockchain_Corp https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Blockchain_Corp. Does an iced tea company changing their name to Long Blockchain make any sense? No, not really, it's pretty stupid actually, but it managed to bump the stock by apparently 380%. The stock market can be pretty dumb sometimes. Let's not forget the weird GME bubble.

0x3f 7mo ago
[flagged]
- tombert 7mo ago
  Where did I say I was smarter than everyone else? I certainly don’t think that and I didn’t mean to imply it if I did. I do think I know more than the average person about computers. Probably most people on this forum can say that. People who know about computers are more likely to be able to smell bullshit with a name like AGI. It’s not that I am smarter, I wouldn’t be able to call bullshit with anything involving chemistry or physics. I think, like Long Blockchain, ARM is abusing that world’s collective computer illiteracy and trying to harvest investor money in the process. Clearly this has worked once, as was the case of Long Blockchain. > People invest in sentiment, in momentum, in all kinds of second order effects. Yep! And this is why it is wrong for corporations to put out incorrect or misleading statements, as it creates a sentiment that is not realistic. This can then propagate in the form of the stock price not being realistic.
  - 0x3f 7mo ago
    I just don't believe even a person with a poor understanding of the market or the underlying technology tosses out bets so casually based only on a name, in the sense that they believe 'oh wow this is actually AGI, I should buy it'. It's different for them to toss out a bet on the basis of 'other people will think this is AGI, I should buy it in anticipation of that' or even 'other people will think other people will think this is AGI, I should buy in anticipation of that'. People playing the Keynesian beauty contest are not, to me, naive participants in the market getting scammed by a company adding 'AGI' to a product. The idea that the first-order person exists in any great number is just so insulting to the average person's intelligence that it's hard not to read it in a paternalistic tone.

wiml 7mo ago

Yes, that's how fraud works a lot of the time. It removes you from the market but not until after it's removed your money. And there's an endless supply of new people ready to make the same mistake after you've learned your lesson.