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> “For the purposes of this market, an ‘official ceasefire agreement’ requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the governme

by tmnvix 7mo ago

> “For the purposes of this market, an ‘official ceasefire agreement’ requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.” (by March 31) Seems a rather risky bet considering how deep Israel has ventured into its war in Lebanon. Very doubtful they will stop anytime soon. Given the leverage Israel has demonstrated over US foreign policy I find it hard to imagine that the US will 'leave them to it'. Likewise, Iran is unlikely to leave Hezbollah's interests out of any negotiations or for that matter to trust that the US isn't asking for negotiations in bad faith. I guess there could be a limited ceasefire agreed between Iran and the US to make room for negotiations but the ceasefire would almost certainly have to occur without the opening of the strait or an end to fighting in Lebanon. This (now regional) war has a long way to go in my opinion. Ultimately, I think this all hinges on whether or not the Iranians feel that they have enough leverage to exercise yet. My feeling is that they will want to continue to the point of destroying Trump's political career - something they could possibly do if this quagmire continues to get worse and closer to the US midterms. Bringing down a US president is potentially one way they can help ensure that they don't simply get attacked again in the near future.

TitaRusell 7mo ago
There was an interesting article in a local paper here about non zionist Jews emigrating from Israel. There are no missiles and draft in Western Europe and the shops are open on every holy day. Unfortunately this leaves the holy land to the fanatics.
- fakedang 7mo ago
  Non-zionist Jews have been leaving Israel whenever the opportunity rose. This war was just an accelerant for further emigration. The only ones who choose to stay back are folks fresh into Aliyah, who might've received a lot of incentives from the government to settle in the illegal West Bank settlements. Or those who really believe in Zionism. The former are typically guys who couldn't make the cut even in their home countries, so they're certainly not adequate replacements for the ones leaving. Not to mention, it's mostly the liberal cities like Tel Aviv which have faced the brunt of Iranian barrages. Jerusalem has been barely hit. Folks staying in those cities, working actual jobs contributing to the economy and not Torah studies, are likely the ones leaving - I know many of my acquaintances who've left Tel Aviv for the US or Dubai.
- genxy 7mo ago
  Zion for Zionists is always what they have wanted. Originally, it was supposed to be Ashkenazi Jews only.
pjc50 7mo ago
I can't see it being over in a week. People seem to have not realized that the Iranian regime is large enough and possessed of enough of a sense of honor to not just surrender after a week. Plus the use of decapitation attacks makes it extremely difficult for the Iranians to talk each other down. And the US can't negotiate on behalf of Israel or bind them to not break the ceasefire, because there's a separate and much longer lasting conflict between Israel and Iran that has been going on since the revolution. On the other hand, there is no way to "destroy Trump's career". The US system doesn't have confidence votes. You're stuck with him. Edit: it is an unfortunate aspect of the minor World War that the Iran war has overshadowed the war in Lebanon, whatever is happening in Syria, and the weird UAE backed war in Sudan.
- tmnvix 7mo ago
  > On the other hand, there is no way to "destroy Trump's career". The US system doesn't have confidence votes. You're stuck with him. If they lose the senate, then impeachment becomes possible, no?
TacticalCoder 7mo ago
[flagged]
- XorNot 7mo ago
  And the Taliban were defeated in Afghanistan too...
- bethekidyouwant 7mo ago
  Their drones are cheap easy to conceal, and can keep the straight closed indefinitely. And what other leverage do they have besides them keeping the straight closed?
  - tmnvix 7mo ago
    > And what other leverage do they have besides them keeping the straight closed? They also have the potential for Houthi involvement - threatening shipping in the Red Sea. In addition the Houthis or Iran themselves are more than capable of disabling Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port - shutting off a major relief valve for gulf oil exports. In short, Iran has plenty of further escalation options (i.e. leverage). Not to mention the ongoing threat they present to Israel which I believe they are more than capable of increasing. If you doubt that, I would suggest searching for some of Ted Postol's commentary regarding Iran's missile attacks and Israel and the US's ability to defend against them. He is very dubious that they can and that the 80-90% intercept rates are in fact baloney. He does have prior form here - being essentially the only one to question patriot missile effectiveness vs scuds in the Iraq war. He claimed a full order of magnitude less effectiveness than reported (9% I believe) and was proven right.
- troyvit 7mo ago
  > They don't have a navy anymore I get where you're coming from in a lot of ways, but the strait (edited) remains closed, and it's not just a perception issue. From this article [0]: > U.S. officials have previously declared the Iranian Navy to have been rendered combat ineffective, but many of the more than 120 ships it has targeted so far have been larger vessels. Iran has hundreds of fast boats, some of which are armed with short-range anti-ship missiles, as well as artillery rockets and other weapons. They can also be used to lay naval mines. These fleets are inherently harder to find and fix, and do not need large ports to operate from. Maybe that's why very few ships are still getting through. The rest of the article is a fun read about how A-10s are taking out those small boats, but there's still a whole lot of work left to do. I think Iran still has a lot of asymmetric juice left, and at some point the law of diminishing returns will kick in. On the other hand it was a war of choice and the U.S. can make their declaration of victory look like whatever they want it to. [0] https://www.twz.com/air/a-10-warthogs-are-prowling-for-iranian-boats-in-the-strait-of-hormuz https://www.twz.com/air/a-10-warthogs-are-prowling-for-irani...

by tmnvix 7mo ago

TitaRusell 7mo ago

There was an interesting article in a local paper here about non zionist Jews emigrating from Israel. There are no missiles and draft in Western Europe and the shops are open on every holy day. Unfortunately this leaves the holy land to the fanatics.

fakedang 7mo ago
Non-zionist Jews have been leaving Israel whenever the opportunity rose. This war was just an accelerant for further emigration. The only ones who choose to stay back are folks fresh into Aliyah, who might've received a lot of incentives from the government to settle in the illegal West Bank settlements. Or those who really believe in Zionism. The former are typically guys who couldn't make the cut even in their home countries, so they're certainly not adequate replacements for the ones leaving. Not to mention, it's mostly the liberal cities like Tel Aviv which have faced the brunt of Iranian barrages. Jerusalem has been barely hit. Folks staying in those cities, working actual jobs contributing to the economy and not Torah studies, are likely the ones leaving - I know many of my acquaintances who've left Tel Aviv for the US or Dubai.
genxy 7mo ago
Zion for Zionists is always what they have wanted. Originally, it was supposed to be Ashkenazi Jews only.

pjc50 7mo ago

I can't see it being over in a week. People seem to have not realized that the Iranian regime is large enough and possessed of enough of a sense of honor to not just surrender after a week. Plus the use of decapitation attacks makes it extremely difficult for the Iranians to talk each other down. And the US can't negotiate on behalf of Israel or bind them to not break the ceasefire, because there's a separate and much longer lasting conflict between Israel and Iran that has been going on since the revolution. On the other hand, there is no way to "destroy Trump's career". The US system doesn't have confidence votes. You're stuck with him. Edit: it is an unfortunate aspect of the minor World War that the Iran war has overshadowed the war in Lebanon, whatever is happening in Syria, and the weird UAE backed war in Sudan.

tmnvix 7mo ago
> On the other hand, there is no way to "destroy Trump's career". The US system doesn't have confidence votes. You're stuck with him. If they lose the senate, then impeachment becomes possible, no?

TacticalCoder 7mo ago

[flagged]

XorNot 7mo ago
And the Taliban were defeated in Afghanistan too...
bethekidyouwant 7mo ago
Their drones are cheap easy to conceal, and can keep the straight closed indefinitely. And what other leverage do they have besides them keeping the straight closed?
- tmnvix 7mo ago
  > And what other leverage do they have besides them keeping the straight closed? They also have the potential for Houthi involvement - threatening shipping in the Red Sea. In addition the Houthis or Iran themselves are more than capable of disabling Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port - shutting off a major relief valve for gulf oil exports. In short, Iran has plenty of further escalation options (i.e. leverage). Not to mention the ongoing threat they present to Israel which I believe they are more than capable of increasing. If you doubt that, I would suggest searching for some of Ted Postol's commentary regarding Iran's missile attacks and Israel and the US's ability to defend against them. He is very dubious that they can and that the 80-90% intercept rates are in fact baloney. He does have prior form here - being essentially the only one to question patriot missile effectiveness vs scuds in the Iraq war. He claimed a full order of magnitude less effectiveness than reported (9% I believe) and was proven right.
troyvit 7mo ago
> They don't have a navy anymore I get where you're coming from in a lot of ways, but the strait (edited) remains closed, and it's not just a perception issue. From this article [0]: > U.S. officials have previously declared the Iranian Navy to have been rendered combat ineffective, but many of the more than 120 ships it has targeted so far have been larger vessels. Iran has hundreds of fast boats, some of which are armed with short-range anti-ship missiles, as well as artillery rockets and other weapons. They can also be used to lay naval mines. These fleets are inherently harder to find and fix, and do not need large ports to operate from. Maybe that's why very few ships are still getting through. The rest of the article is a fun read about how A-10s are taking out those small boats, but there's still a whole lot of work left to do. I think Iran still has a lot of asymmetric juice left, and at some point the law of diminishing returns will kick in. On the other hand it was a war of choice and the U.S. can make their declaration of victory look like whatever they want it to. [0] https://www.twz.com/air/a-10-warthogs-are-prowling-for-iranian-boats-in-the-strait-of-hormuz https://www.twz.com/air/a-10-warthogs-are-prowling-for-irani...