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And this is two dimensional thinking. PRC has spent the better part of the last two decades gobbling up the supply chains that feed into solar panel manufactur
by remarkEon 7mo ago
And this is two dimensional thinking.
PRC has spent the better part of the last two decades gobbling up the supply chains that feed into solar panel manufacturing. Suppose you and I, being experienced technologists and enterprising individuals, decided tomorrow that we were going to start a solar panel manufacturing company. Surely this will be a growing, potentially high margin business because demand will be high if we're electrifying everything because of the aforementioned energy crisis. We are going to run head first into a wall of raw materials supply that is controlled by ... China.
So my point is that if you want to flip the energy generation to "green" and solar on some aggressive timeline, you are going to be dependent on China to do so. There are very obvious geopolitical reasons for why this is a very dumb idea. One of the ways I gauge how serious someone is about moving energy generation in the United States to solar is if they are okay with opening up closed mines so we can produce the rare earths, here, that are needed to manufacture the panels themselves. If they're cool with that, great, let's get stared. If they aren't, then they're not serious and are bandwagoning.
- triceratops 7mo agoAnd I'm saying the US doesn't need to bother with rare earth mining as long as China is happy to export their panels. Buy as many as they sell. Build up a strategic panel reserve. If they ever stop, use the reserve and gas plants to backstop. Spend the next 20 years developing domestic PV manufacturing capability, safe in the knowledge that your current panels are good for at least that long.
- remarkEon 7mo ago[flagged]
- triceratops 7mo agoI'm not sure you understand much if you can seriously write > Surely [PV manufacturing] will be a growing, potentially high margin business because demand will be high I'm not aware of it being a high margin business now for any Chinese company, and that's with their aforementioned advantages in labor and mining. This is a product whose price has fallen 99% in the past 2 decades. What margin? If you still want to re-open rare earth mines in the US knowing the economics, and you can follow American environmental and labor standards, then be my guest. It doesn't strike me as a lucrative opportunity but what do I know.
- remarkEon 7mo agoSounds like moving to PV for electricity generation is a risky option, since maybe margins won't be so high if they're made here in the US and the economics just don't work for manufacturing from scratch. Perhaps we should consider other options, like the magic rocks we can find in the woods that get really hot when you hold them close together. This way, we can simplify our supply chains and have a reliable supply of energy that doesn't rely on a hostile geopolitical rival, and doesn't require the costly transition of the grid that we'd need to do if we went all in on PV.
- Tadpole9181 7mo ago> the magic rocks we can find in the woods The hypocracy of calling them unserious moments ago.
- remarkEon 7mo agoThis is a euphemism meant to convey how fortunate we are that civilization has advanced to the point where splitting the atom can but used to generate electricity. I'm sorry that it went over your head.
- rsync 7mo agoI encourage you - and anyone - to read the excellent book: _The Making of the Atomic Bomb_ [1] ... and, in this case, to pay special attention to the multiple chapters describing in painful detail just what is involved in refining and extracting Uranium. As in, cubic acres of land mechanically and chemically processed to extract ounces of material ... which is then sent to enormous production facilities, at tremendous cost, only to begin the refinement process. It is an incredibly long, dirty and energy intensive journey and I am not sure if the ledger of carbon expenses properly accounts for these steps. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Making_of_the_Atomic_Bomb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Making_of_the_Atomic_Bomb
- 7mo ago
- jhanschoo 7mo agoToday's mainstream solar panels use abundant, widely available materials.
- remarkEon 7mo agoFeels like PV boosters these days are just completely and totally unaware of where these things actually come from and who controls the material supply chain.
- defrost 7mo agoYour feelings are likely off - most people know that the materials used in solar panels are widely available across the globe and that China dominates the manufacturing process due to the US abdicating interest in manufacturing and renewables.
- ZeroGravitas 7mo agoRare earths are not used to make solar panels.
- defrost 7mo agoSolid comment - although rare earths are used in a minor way in the full Solar PV solution via inverters and other components. Straight up Solar Panel grid arrays sans that stuff, it's 2,800 kg copper and 3,900 kg Silicon per MW and not much else directly (aluminium for framing, glass protection, can be added). ( Although lots of new copper (oxide ore, the most common) requires lots of new sulphur and the world has just lost 3.8 million tonnes of annual sulphur production by product from Qatar refineries )