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>but also frees us from dependency on other countries It does not. It moves the dependency to the manufacturing source of the panels. That is China. No thanks.

>but also frees us from dependency on other countries It does not. It moves the dependency to the manufacturing source of the panels. That is China. No thanks. Can we please just build more reactors? The insistence on solar is becoming a cargo cult (thanks, Elon Musk).

AnthonyMouse 7mo ago
China can't stop you from using solar panels you've already installed and you could manufacture new ones somewhere else. Solar actually makes a lot of sense for a significant fraction of the grid. It's specifically excellent for electrifying transportation, because most cars are stationary at an office park during the majority of sunlight hours. Install chargers there and you solve the problem of people in apartments not having them at home and you don't have to worry about the intermittency because you're literally using it to charge batteries. Solar is cheaper at the cost of intermittency, so for the things where intermittency doesn't really matter it makes obvious sense. When it sucks is when you need reliable power in winter at night. Which is what nuclear is good at. But then... you can use both, each one for the thing it's better at.
triceratops 7mo ago
This is gas brain thinking. Solar panels are not gas. You don't burn them to make energy. There is no dependency on solar panel manufacturers. Once you install a panel it's going to make electricity for the next 25 years. At least. After that you can recycle it and use it another 25 years. Reactors on the other hand require fuel that is consumed. Unless you can mine it yourself, you're just trading an oil dependency for a uranium dependency.
- asdff 7mo ago
  There is a dependency considering these are evidently valid targets for missiles
  - triceratops 7mo ago
    I don't know what you're referring to. Do you mind rephrasing?
    - asdff 7mo ago
      Energy infrastructure has been targeted in the Iran-Israel-US conflict. Solar is just as liable as petroleum infrastructure has been. People think petroleum has some unique risk here. Really it is energy being targeted by military means. Doesn't matter how a nation or economy sources its energy, it will be a high value target. Consider if the entire world was solar powered today. Iran targets solar plants in the gulf states instead. Gulf states target iran solar plants. Prices of panel materials surge just like oil prices surge today in response to the demand brought on to the supply chain. Maybe Iran wants to twist the knife, sends submarines to target solar supply chain networks directly either in shipping at sea or to be closer to shelling or missile striking mining or production facilities. The world is all too easy to disrupt in the very same way it is being disrupted in terms of oil today, thanks to the asymmetries brought on by drone and missile warfare in this new era.
      - triceratops 7mo ago
        As terrible as the human cost would be if Iran and the other Gulf states were to target each others' solar plants, it would be contained to tha region. India, and China, and America, and Africa, and Europe's PV would continue to generate electricity. Compared to what we have now, where a war in one part of the world makes energy expensive everywhere else. Not to mention: PV generation is way more distributed than drilling oil and gas. Commercial PV generation facilities are smaller and more spread out. And even if the enemy bombs them all in a war, you can disconnect your rooftop solar panels from the grid and keep your house going. Do you have an oil well and refinery in your backyard? I'll repeat it again: you don't burn solar panels to make energy. We need growing numbers of panels today because we're going solar. If the world were already at 100% solar then we wouldn't need nearly as much manufacturing or mining. We'd mostly just recycle old panels. This is unlike fossil fuels. If you burn gas you will always need new gas. Forever.
- remarkEon 7mo ago
  And this is two dimensional thinking. PRC has spent the better part of the last two decades gobbling up the supply chains that feed into solar panel manufacturing. Suppose you and I, being experienced technologists and enterprising individuals, decided tomorrow that we were going to start a solar panel manufacturing company. Surely this will be a growing, potentially high margin business because demand will be high if we're electrifying everything because of the aforementioned energy crisis. We are going to run head first into a wall of raw materials supply that is controlled by ... China. So my point is that if you want to flip the energy generation to "green" and solar on some aggressive timeline, you are going to be dependent on China to do so. There are very obvious geopolitical reasons for why this is a very dumb idea. One of the ways I gauge how serious someone is about moving energy generation in the United States to solar is if they are okay with opening up closed mines so we can produce the rare earths, here, that are needed to manufacture the panels themselves. If they're cool with that, great, let's get stared. If they aren't, then they're not serious and are bandwagoning.
  - triceratops 7mo ago
    And I'm saying the US doesn't need to bother with rare earth mining as long as China is happy to export their panels. Buy as many as they sell. Build up a strategic panel reserve. If they ever stop, use the reserve and gas plants to backstop. Spend the next 20 years developing domestic PV manufacturing capability, safe in the knowledge that your current panels are good for at least that long.
    - remarkEon 7mo ago
      [flagged]
      - triceratops 7mo ago
        I'm not sure you understand much if you can seriously write > Surely [PV manufacturing] will be a growing, potentially high margin business because demand will be high I'm not aware of it being a high margin business now for any Chinese company, and that's with their aforementioned advantages in labor and mining. This is a product whose price has fallen 99% in the past 2 decades. What margin? If you still want to re-open rare earth mines in the US knowing the economics, and you can follow American environmental and labor standards, then be my guest. It doesn't strike me as a lucrative opportunity but what do I know.
Tadpole9181 7mo ago
It seems to me what you're arguing is that the government should incentivize the industry to produce solar panels domestically - as a strategic resource. Then you are both free from China and oil producing nations; and you get to create some domestic jobs in manufacturing. > But China also owns the supply. Well then, damn, we better get started making deals today? Your plan to do absolutely nothing and continue losing forever with increasingly no way out seems utterly rediculous.
KylerAce 7mo ago
No. Solar bought mostly from a foreign power only gives you a dependence for continuing to expand solar or (much less so) maintaining the solar already in your country over the 15-30 years it gradually breaks down / gets less efficient. Once you're at peak solar youre not that bad off even if embargoed. Meanwhile since oil highly inelastic, even relatively small portions of your supply being disrupted at any point means an almost instaneous increase in the price to do almost anything industrial or commercial in your country, as is shown by the current Hormuz crisis

AnthonyMouse 7mo ago

China can't stop you from using solar panels you've already installed and you could manufacture new ones somewhere else. Solar actually makes a lot of sense for a significant fraction of the grid. It's specifically excellent for electrifying transportation, because most cars are stationary at an office park during the majority of sunlight hours. Install chargers there and you solve the problem of people in apartments not having them at home and you don't have to worry about the intermittency because you're literally using it to charge batteries. Solar is cheaper at the cost of intermittency, so for the things where intermittency doesn't really matter it makes obvious sense. When it sucks is when you need reliable power in winter at night. Which is what nuclear is good at. But then... you can use both, each one for the thing it's better at.

triceratops 7mo ago

This is gas brain thinking. Solar panels are not gas. You don't burn them to make energy. There is no dependency on solar panel manufacturers. Once you install a panel it's going to make electricity for the next 25 years. At least. After that you can recycle it and use it another 25 years. Reactors on the other hand require fuel that is consumed. Unless you can mine it yourself, you're just trading an oil dependency for a uranium dependency.

asdff 7mo ago
There is a dependency considering these are evidently valid targets for missiles
- triceratops 7mo ago
  I don't know what you're referring to. Do you mind rephrasing?
  - asdff 7mo ago
    Energy infrastructure has been targeted in the Iran-Israel-US conflict. Solar is just as liable as petroleum infrastructure has been. People think petroleum has some unique risk here. Really it is energy being targeted by military means. Doesn't matter how a nation or economy sources its energy, it will be a high value target. Consider if the entire world was solar powered today. Iran targets solar plants in the gulf states instead. Gulf states target iran solar plants. Prices of panel materials surge just like oil prices surge today in response to the demand brought on to the supply chain. Maybe Iran wants to twist the knife, sends submarines to target solar supply chain networks directly either in shipping at sea or to be closer to shelling or missile striking mining or production facilities. The world is all too easy to disrupt in the very same way it is being disrupted in terms of oil today, thanks to the asymmetries brought on by drone and missile warfare in this new era.
    - triceratops 7mo ago
      As terrible as the human cost would be if Iran and the other Gulf states were to target each others' solar plants, it would be contained to tha region. India, and China, and America, and Africa, and Europe's PV would continue to generate electricity. Compared to what we have now, where a war in one part of the world makes energy expensive everywhere else. Not to mention: PV generation is way more distributed than drilling oil and gas. Commercial PV generation facilities are smaller and more spread out. And even if the enemy bombs them all in a war, you can disconnect your rooftop solar panels from the grid and keep your house going. Do you have an oil well and refinery in your backyard? I'll repeat it again: you don't burn solar panels to make energy. We need growing numbers of panels today because we're going solar. If the world were already at 100% solar then we wouldn't need nearly as much manufacturing or mining. We'd mostly just recycle old panels. This is unlike fossil fuels. If you burn gas you will always need new gas. Forever.
remarkEon 7mo ago
And this is two dimensional thinking. PRC has spent the better part of the last two decades gobbling up the supply chains that feed into solar panel manufacturing. Suppose you and I, being experienced technologists and enterprising individuals, decided tomorrow that we were going to start a solar panel manufacturing company. Surely this will be a growing, potentially high margin business because demand will be high if we're electrifying everything because of the aforementioned energy crisis. We are going to run head first into a wall of raw materials supply that is controlled by ... China. So my point is that if you want to flip the energy generation to "green" and solar on some aggressive timeline, you are going to be dependent on China to do so. There are very obvious geopolitical reasons for why this is a very dumb idea. One of the ways I gauge how serious someone is about moving energy generation in the United States to solar is if they are okay with opening up closed mines so we can produce the rare earths, here, that are needed to manufacture the panels themselves. If they're cool with that, great, let's get stared. If they aren't, then they're not serious and are bandwagoning.
- triceratops 7mo ago
  And I'm saying the US doesn't need to bother with rare earth mining as long as China is happy to export their panels. Buy as many as they sell. Build up a strategic panel reserve. If they ever stop, use the reserve and gas plants to backstop. Spend the next 20 years developing domestic PV manufacturing capability, safe in the knowledge that your current panels are good for at least that long.
  - remarkEon 7mo ago
    [flagged]
    - triceratops 7mo ago
      I'm not sure you understand much if you can seriously write > Surely [PV manufacturing] will be a growing, potentially high margin business because demand will be high I'm not aware of it being a high margin business now for any Chinese company, and that's with their aforementioned advantages in labor and mining. This is a product whose price has fallen 99% in the past 2 decades. What margin? If you still want to re-open rare earth mines in the US knowing the economics, and you can follow American environmental and labor standards, then be my guest. It doesn't strike me as a lucrative opportunity but what do I know.

Tadpole9181 7mo ago

It seems to me what you're arguing is that the government should incentivize the industry to produce solar panels domestically - as a strategic resource. Then you are both free from China and oil producing nations; and you get to create some domestic jobs in manufacturing. > But China also owns the supply. Well then, damn, we better get started making deals today? Your plan to do absolutely nothing and continue losing forever with increasingly no way out seems utterly rediculous.

KylerAce 7mo ago

No. Solar bought mostly from a foreign power only gives you a dependence for continuing to expand solar or (much less so) maintaining the solar already in your country over the 15-30 years it gradually breaks down / gets less efficient. Once you're at peak solar youre not that bad off even if embargoed. Meanwhile since oil highly inelastic, even relatively small portions of your supply being disrupted at any point means an almost instaneous increase in the price to do almost anything industrial or commercial in your country, as is shown by the current Hormuz crisis