3 ms·

I am speaking from a position of total ignorance, so this is probably a dumb take, but I don't see why rich nations[1] don't simply subsidize mass nuclear energ

by sb057 7mo ago

I am speaking from a position of total ignorance, so this is probably a dumb take, but I don't see why rich nations[1] don't simply subsidize mass nuclear energy production as state policy. The two main issues with nuclear are unit cost (solvable if you build dozens/hundreds in serial production) and financing (a reactor with a 30 year payback period is much more viable with 3.5% sovereign financing compared to 8% private bonds). France did it 50 years ago with more primitive reactor designs. China is currently doing it somewhat halfheartedly. I bet if the U.S. committed to $2 trillion to one standardized design and heavily used eminent domain, America would have knocked electricity costs down by half within a decade. [1] Honestly probably only really viable in China and the U.S. plus maybe South Korea; nuclear is unpopular in Japan after Fukushima, and I doubt the E.U. would be able to coordinate everything. Everyone else is probably too poor outside of petrostates, which have the whole petro thing going on.

alephnerd 7mo ago
> I don't see why rich nations[1] don't simply subsidize mass nuclear energy production as state policy > Honestly probably only really viable in China and the U.S. plus maybe South Korea Because it costs a lot of money. For example, India quietly (by HN and Reddit standards) passed a nuclear energy megabill in December which has a TAM of $214 Billion [0]. French (EDF), American (Westinghouse, Holtec, GE Vernova Hitachi), Russian (Rosatom), and Korean (Hyundai) JVs with Indian Public (NPTC, BHEL) and Private (Tata, L&T, Jindal Group) players are now able to build and distribute nuclear energy without dealing with an older SOE and can subsidize the buildout [1] using Green Bonds, which gives them access to around $56 Billion in capital [2] with an added . These players will also be eligible for India's $2.5 Billion SMR subsidy [3]. This also helps India's $160 Billion data center buildout [4] which is being subsidized by the Indian government [5], and piggybacks on India's $205 Billion infrastructure buildout [6]. Other countries can do that as well, but if they are fine spending tens to hundreds of billions of dollars - that's where the blocker arises, but most of the players with this technology are now backlogged with orders from this buildout in India and other existing and in-progress buildouts. > outside of petrostates, which have the whole petro thing going on The UAE [7] is participating in financing India's nuclear buildout as part of their defense pact. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-08/india-sees-new-nuclear-bill-spurring-projects-worth-214-billion https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-08/india-see... [1] - https://powermin.gov.in/sites/default/files/Seeking_comments_on_Draft_National_Electricity_Policy_2026.pdf https://powermin.gov.in/sites/default/files/Seeking_comments... [2] - https://www.climatebonds.net/news-events/press-room/press-releases/indias-sustainable-debt-market-tops-usd-55-9-billion-new-mufg-cbi-report-maps-rapid-growth-pathways-2030 https://www.climatebonds.net/news-events/press-room/press-re... [3] - https://www.trade.gov/market-intelligence/india-energy-small-modular-reactors https://www.trade.gov/market-intelligence/india-energy-small... [4] - https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2227953&reg=3&lang=2 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2227953&re... [5] - https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/01/india-offers-zero-taxes-through-2047-to-lure-global-ai-workloads/ https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/01/india-offers-zero-taxes-th... [6] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-12/india-s-second-infrastructure-wave-could-draw-205-billion-modi-s-third-term https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-12/india-... [7] - https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/india-uae-announce-trade-nuclear-cooperation-modis-infra-invite-126011901257_1.html https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/india-uae-annou...
- sb057 7mo ago
  The U.S. spends $500 billion a year on electricity[1]. $2 trillion dollars worth of bonds to lower the price per kWh is modest, especially given that it would enable new tax revenue from manufacturing and chemical production, where electricity is usually the highest input cost, even in China. [1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62945 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62945
  - alephnerd 7mo ago
    > The U.S. spends $500 billion a year on electricity But the American energy industry has negative net margins [0], which makes buildouts difficult without significant state support as the American energy industry is operating at a loss after operations cost are included. > $2 trillion dollars worth of bonds to lower the price per kWh is modest Land and Liability. The upfront cost to build is significantly higher in the US because land is privately owned. On the other hand, India's federal and state governments are subsidizing land purchases for nuclear reactors as part of the SHANTI Act. The only other large economy doing something similar is China. Furthermore, liability has remained a major issue in the US. India [1] and China [2] both gave nuclear operators a broad liability shield which externalizes the cost of a nuclear accident, especially for SMRs as they cap out in the $30-50 million range in India and China. If the US can provide a similar liability shield beyond what is already on the books, buildout would be much faster, but this is politically untenable as can be seen with the data center buildout. Imagine the attack ads - "Trump"/"Newsom"/"Vance"/"Pritzker" are poisoning innocent Americans while in the pocket of Wall Street and BigTech. A growing number of Americans view any kind of infrastructure buildout as a subsidy for rich people, almost as if there was an ongoing social media campaign for years that has solidified this sentiment amongst Americans [3]. The big capital players at this point in this space are the US, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Russia, and France. All the other 6 (even Russia) have blocked Chinese access to initiatives and subsidizes for domestic nuclear buildouts, and Russia is also blocked from 4 of them. That said, the US has quietly started similar initatives as well, like the $80 Billion SMR buildout [4] but HN will never give Trump a win. [0] - https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/margin.html https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile... [1] - https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/dbff80e4/shanti-act-2025-rewiring-india-s-nuclear-liability-and-regulatory-architecture https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publication... [2] - https://open.library.ubc.ca/soa/cIRcle/collections/ubccommunityandpartnerspublicati/52387/items/1.0379607 https://open.library.ubc.ca/soa/cIRcle/collections/ubccommun... [3] - https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/threat-intelligence/dragonbridge-targets-rare-earths-mining-companies https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/threat-intelligence/dra... [4] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/westinghouse-megadeal-set-revitalize-nuclear-supply-chain--reeii-2026-01-26/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/westinghouse-megadea...

by sb057 7mo ago

alephnerd 7mo ago

> I don't see why rich nations[1] don't simply subsidize mass nuclear energy production as state policy > Honestly probably only really viable in China and the U.S. plus maybe South Korea Because it costs a lot of money. For example, India quietly (by HN and Reddit standards) passed a nuclear energy megabill in December which has a TAM of $214 Billion [0]. French (EDF), American (Westinghouse, Holtec, GE Vernova Hitachi), Russian (Rosatom), and Korean (Hyundai) JVs with Indian Public (NPTC, BHEL) and Private (Tata, L&T, Jindal Group) players are now able to build and distribute nuclear energy without dealing with an older SOE and can subsidize the buildout [1] using Green Bonds, which gives them access to around $56 Billion in capital [2] with an added . These players will also be eligible for India's $2.5 Billion SMR subsidy [3]. This also helps India's $160 Billion data center buildout [4] which is being subsidized by the Indian government [5], and piggybacks on India's $205 Billion infrastructure buildout [6]. Other countries can do that as well, but if they are fine spending tens to hundreds of billions of dollars - that's where the blocker arises, but most of the players with this technology are now backlogged with orders from this buildout in India and other existing and in-progress buildouts. > outside of petrostates, which have the whole petro thing going on The UAE [7] is participating in financing India's nuclear buildout as part of their defense pact. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-08/india-sees-new-nuclear-bill-spurring-projects-worth-214-billion https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-08/india-see... [1] - https://powermin.gov.in/sites/default/files/Seeking_comments_on_Draft_National_Electricity_Policy_2026.pdf https://powermin.gov.in/sites/default/files/Seeking_comments... [2] - https://www.climatebonds.net/news-events/press-room/press-releases/indias-sustainable-debt-market-tops-usd-55-9-billion-new-mufg-cbi-report-maps-rapid-growth-pathways-2030 https://www.climatebonds.net/news-events/press-room/press-re... [3] - https://www.trade.gov/market-intelligence/india-energy-small-modular-reactors https://www.trade.gov/market-intelligence/india-energy-small... [4] - https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2227953&reg=3&lang=2 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2227953&re... [5] - https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/01/india-offers-zero-taxes-through-2047-to-lure-global-ai-workloads/ https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/01/india-offers-zero-taxes-th... [6] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-12/india-s-second-infrastructure-wave-could-draw-205-billion-modi-s-third-term https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-12/india-... [7] - https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/india-uae-announce-trade-nuclear-cooperation-modis-infra-invite-126011901257_1.html https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/india-uae-annou...

sb057 7mo ago
The U.S. spends $500 billion a year on electricity[1]. $2 trillion dollars worth of bonds to lower the price per kWh is modest, especially given that it would enable new tax revenue from manufacturing and chemical production, where electricity is usually the highest input cost, even in China. [1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62945 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62945
- alephnerd 7mo ago
  > The U.S. spends $500 billion a year on electricity But the American energy industry has negative net margins [0], which makes buildouts difficult without significant state support as the American energy industry is operating at a loss after operations cost are included. > $2 trillion dollars worth of bonds to lower the price per kWh is modest Land and Liability. The upfront cost to build is significantly higher in the US because land is privately owned. On the other hand, India's federal and state governments are subsidizing land purchases for nuclear reactors as part of the SHANTI Act. The only other large economy doing something similar is China. Furthermore, liability has remained a major issue in the US. India [1] and China [2] both gave nuclear operators a broad liability shield which externalizes the cost of a nuclear accident, especially for SMRs as they cap out in the $30-50 million range in India and China. If the US can provide a similar liability shield beyond what is already on the books, buildout would be much faster, but this is politically untenable as can be seen with the data center buildout. Imagine the attack ads - "Trump"/"Newsom"/"Vance"/"Pritzker" are poisoning innocent Americans while in the pocket of Wall Street and BigTech. A growing number of Americans view any kind of infrastructure buildout as a subsidy for rich people, almost as if there was an ongoing social media campaign for years that has solidified this sentiment amongst Americans [3]. The big capital players at this point in this space are the US, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Russia, and France. All the other 6 (even Russia) have blocked Chinese access to initiatives and subsidizes for domestic nuclear buildouts, and Russia is also blocked from 4 of them. That said, the US has quietly started similar initatives as well, like the $80 Billion SMR buildout [4] but HN will never give Trump a win. [0] - https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/margin.html https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile... [1] - https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/dbff80e4/shanti-act-2025-rewiring-india-s-nuclear-liability-and-regulatory-architecture https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publication... [2] - https://open.library.ubc.ca/soa/cIRcle/collections/ubccommunityandpartnerspublicati/52387/items/1.0379607 https://open.library.ubc.ca/soa/cIRcle/collections/ubccommun... [3] - https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/threat-intelligence/dragonbridge-targets-rare-earths-mining-companies https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/threat-intelligence/dra... [4] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/westinghouse-megadeal-set-revitalize-nuclear-supply-chain--reeii-2026-01-26/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/westinghouse-megadea...