4 ms·

Within a few years I think UBI or UBS will be required for people to continue living, in which case basic needs (bills) won't be a concern. There's just no way

cedws 7mo ago
I think UBI is a pipe dream. I live in the UK and even with our social safety net which is much stronger than the US's, I can't imagine the government ever handing out money adequate to live a middle class life to large chunk of the population. UBI has problems that far as I know haven't been addressed. Vast numbers of people no longer being occupied doesn't seem like it would lead to a healthy society. And how do you uphold democracy when the government is effectively handing out the paychecks?
- andai 7mo ago
  Recently: Ireland rolls out basic income scheme for artists https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46977175 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46977175 Not quite UK, and not very big, but somewhat promising :) >How do you uphold democracy https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/abs/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-poli... >Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. Can't uphold what isn't there, lol As for how do we avoid becoming WALL-E blobs... elite opinion seems to suggest the UBI will be just enough to prevent people from going into the streets with pitchforks, but not enough for a dignified life. (Enough to live in ze pod and eat ze proverbial bugs.) I don't see employment being a very big thing (unless AI creates some kinda fake jobs economy to pacify the humans, which would be a rational thing to do). The crisis of meaning is going to be worse than the economic crisis, and I think people would literally pay to work rather than question their existence on such a deep level. Beyond fake jobs and human-only jobs (robot can't replace the cute barista at Starbucks!), I think entrepreneurship will be the only real vehicle. So... basically how it already is today.
  - carlosjobim 7mo ago
    > Not quite UK, and not very big, but somewhat promising :) Rulers have given stipends to artists and scholars for hundreds of years. There's hardly anything new about it. Make the art or science that satisfies the duke or the glorious district chairman and you will be on the receiving end of these benefits.
    - WesolyKubeczek 7mo ago
      Also, among names who did succeed in pursuing these benefits, there are countless forgotten ones who also tried. Almost like startups and youtube streamers of today, who would have thought.
- eucyclos 7mo ago
  Whoever said anything about middle class? Ubi is the poverty level, it could never be anything else. As for people not being occupied, the theory is that since ubi doesn't stop if you find employment, it would lead to less idleness than the current means-tested social safety nets. In test cases though it seems to depend a lot on culture, Finnish communities saw no difference in employment while Indian rates of business formation tripled.
senordevnyc 7mo ago
Within a few years I think UBI or UBS will be required for people to continue living, in which case basic needs (bills) won't be a concern. There's just no way for us to transition fast enough to avoid high unemployment as AI replaces large swaths of jobs. I do worry about the ~10 year transition it will take for societal governments to react. This strikes me as wildly optimistic. People aren't going to be able to live on UBI at a level where massive political and social unrest is averted unless it's like $2k per person per month, minimum. And I'm skeptical that the US government is going to start printing $8.5 trillion dollars of UBI in the next decade.
- WesolyKubeczek 7mo ago
  $2k of unconditional income means that the most basic bread at your store will cost $150 a loaf, and a bar of butter $180, $200 if unsalted.
  - senordevnyc 7mo ago
    This also seems wildly unrealistic. In a world where we need UBI because automation is destroying most jobs, I'd also expect food to get cheaper. In fact, I think almost everything would get cheaper except real estate, which is actually where I worry you'd see the kind of inflation you're talking about.
cermicelli 7mo ago
Only way UBI works is if the govts increase taxes on all income or any income to almost 90%+... And then re-distribute to each person accordingly. That ain't happening, no govt will be willing to try that, and rich won't let that happen, they will become slightly rich from very rich. that just ain't happening.
- carlosjobim 7mo ago
  Have you heard about the last century? A few governments did that. You had to stand in line for food and your basic goods.
  - throw-the-towel 7mo ago
    No they didn't. In the USSR, for example, not working without a valid reason was literally a crime (look up tuneyadstvo).
    - carlosjobim 7mo ago
      Great point! But for how many weeks will you enjoy your UBI before the rulers say "Okay, now that we're paying all of your salaries, it's time for you to do the work we need. Off you go to build the railroad or the giant dam! Here's a pick-axe."
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- 1234letshaveatw 7mo ago
  If we are able to fill our storefronts with magnificent AI creations for cents on the dollar, would that be profitable enough for the producers to pay enough tax to cover UBI? Producers would still face pricing pressure to lower margins to eat up all those productivity gains. Every path forward seems very uncertain
  - cermicelli 6mo ago
rmoriz 7mo ago
UBI/UBS requires a very solidaric community. But the current situation (in Germany) is not about finding any job but taking a low paid, hard working or even dangerous job (nursing service, shifter, even soldier, public sector). UBI makes it even harder to find people for that kind of jobs. Not paying any social benefits and increasing the pressure on the unemployed to take these jobs is much more interesting for everyone that is not unemployed. Please don't judge me for writing this. It's the feeling I have, not my view.
- kuerbel 7mo ago
  A lot, I'd say even most people in Germanys long term unemployment scheme which are not already working part time (Aufstocker) have severe mental and physical health problems. More pressure isn't going to help those people but it's the current Government's shtick. I'd say UBI would make it easier to find people working in demanding jobs because you could to them part time, so they don't wear you down as much. It's much easier to work as a nurse for 20 hours a week.
  - WesolyKubeczek 7mo ago
    > It's much easier to work as a nurse for 20 hours a week. However, being a nurse is a skilled job that a Joe from street cannot do on a whim, and at the same time it has very shitty pay. I’d say being a nurse competes in shittiness of the pay/work ratio with another indispensable job, a schoolteacher.
collingreen 7mo ago
Why would the people with control of things go out of their way to keep the rest of us alive via UBI? I get your point but what about a step before that - since when is that anyone's goal? From a sociopathic leader perspective, vast populations are only great for armies and tech has surpassed the need for raw manpower at that scale (and the AI you fear would make militaries require even fewer people). In your AI scenario is it more likely the ruling class gives everyone free living standard or just lets like 40% of the population die? If all the leaders get together this is the ideal outcome for them -- vast power and control without enough civilians to rise up, climate change becomes easy to reverse with vastly lower power and food needs, and reduced threat of global war because nobody has an occupying size army anymore. This is like the new version of "mutually assured destruction" as a strategy for global peace. I can't speak for the world but I can imagine some of the twisted folks currently in power in the US seeing this route as their destiny and simply them doing the best thing for humanity as a whole -- longtermists are in, nazis know a final solution when they see one, and Christians are honored to have the duty of bringing forth the second coming.
slopinthebag 7mo ago
UBI just inflates the currency. What will hopefully end up happening is that displaced workers can do jobs which aren't economically viable atm, but are still socially viable: Imagine an army of workers cleaning up the streets (literally) and transforming your town into a clean, well maintained cityscape. Etc etc.
- WesolyKubeczek 7mo ago
  IMO this cannot work unless there is enforcement to do such work. Most people would prefer to take their money and do fuck all in return. If I was a dictator that wanted to institute UBI, I would do it in exchange for every beneficient getting literally conscripted once in a while to do those shit jobs.

cedws 7mo ago

I think UBI is a pipe dream. I live in the UK and even with our social safety net which is much stronger than the US's, I can't imagine the government ever handing out money adequate to live a middle class life to large chunk of the population. UBI has problems that far as I know haven't been addressed. Vast numbers of people no longer being occupied doesn't seem like it would lead to a healthy society. And how do you uphold democracy when the government is effectively handing out the paychecks?

andai 7mo ago
Recently: Ireland rolls out basic income scheme for artists https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46977175 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46977175 Not quite UK, and not very big, but somewhat promising :) >How do you uphold democracy https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/abs/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-poli... >Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. Can't uphold what isn't there, lol As for how do we avoid becoming WALL-E blobs... elite opinion seems to suggest the UBI will be just enough to prevent people from going into the streets with pitchforks, but not enough for a dignified life. (Enough to live in ze pod and eat ze proverbial bugs.) I don't see employment being a very big thing (unless AI creates some kinda fake jobs economy to pacify the humans, which would be a rational thing to do). The crisis of meaning is going to be worse than the economic crisis, and I think people would literally pay to work rather than question their existence on such a deep level. Beyond fake jobs and human-only jobs (robot can't replace the cute barista at Starbucks!), I think entrepreneurship will be the only real vehicle. So... basically how it already is today.
- carlosjobim 7mo ago
  > Not quite UK, and not very big, but somewhat promising :) Rulers have given stipends to artists and scholars for hundreds of years. There's hardly anything new about it. Make the art or science that satisfies the duke or the glorious district chairman and you will be on the receiving end of these benefits.
  - WesolyKubeczek 7mo ago
    Also, among names who did succeed in pursuing these benefits, there are countless forgotten ones who also tried. Almost like startups and youtube streamers of today, who would have thought.
eucyclos 7mo ago
Whoever said anything about middle class? Ubi is the poverty level, it could never be anything else. As for people not being occupied, the theory is that since ubi doesn't stop if you find employment, it would lead to less idleness than the current means-tested social safety nets. In test cases though it seems to depend a lot on culture, Finnish communities saw no difference in employment while Indian rates of business formation tripled.

senordevnyc 7mo ago

Within a few years I think UBI or UBS will be required for people to continue living, in which case basic needs (bills) won't be a concern. There's just no way for us to transition fast enough to avoid high unemployment as AI replaces large swaths of jobs. I do worry about the ~10 year transition it will take for societal governments to react. This strikes me as wildly optimistic. People aren't going to be able to live on UBI at a level where massive political and social unrest is averted unless it's like $2k per person per month, minimum. And I'm skeptical that the US government is going to start printing $8.5 trillion dollars of UBI in the next decade.

WesolyKubeczek 7mo ago
$2k of unconditional income means that the most basic bread at your store will cost $150 a loaf, and a bar of butter $180, $200 if unsalted.
- senordevnyc 7mo ago
  This also seems wildly unrealistic. In a world where we need UBI because automation is destroying most jobs, I'd also expect food to get cheaper. In fact, I think almost everything would get cheaper except real estate, which is actually where I worry you'd see the kind of inflation you're talking about.

cermicelli 7mo ago

Only way UBI works is if the govts increase taxes on all income or any income to almost 90%+... And then re-distribute to each person accordingly. That ain't happening, no govt will be willing to try that, and rich won't let that happen, they will become slightly rich from very rich. that just ain't happening.

carlosjobim 7mo ago
Have you heard about the last century? A few governments did that. You had to stand in line for food and your basic goods.
- throw-the-towel 7mo ago
  No they didn't. In the USSR, for example, not working without a valid reason was literally a crime (look up tuneyadstvo).
  - carlosjobim 7mo ago
    Great point! But for how many weeks will you enjoy your UBI before the rulers say "Okay, now that we're paying all of your salaries, it's time for you to do the work we need. Off you go to build the railroad or the giant dam! Here's a pick-axe."
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
1234letshaveatw 7mo ago
If we are able to fill our storefronts with magnificent AI creations for cents on the dollar, would that be profitable enough for the producers to pay enough tax to cover UBI? Producers would still face pricing pressure to lower margins to eat up all those productivity gains. Every path forward seems very uncertain
- cermicelli 6mo ago

rmoriz 7mo ago

UBI/UBS requires a very solidaric community. But the current situation (in Germany) is not about finding any job but taking a low paid, hard working or even dangerous job (nursing service, shifter, even soldier, public sector). UBI makes it even harder to find people for that kind of jobs. Not paying any social benefits and increasing the pressure on the unemployed to take these jobs is much more interesting for everyone that is not unemployed. Please don't judge me for writing this. It's the feeling I have, not my view.

kuerbel 7mo ago
A lot, I'd say even most people in Germanys long term unemployment scheme which are not already working part time (Aufstocker) have severe mental and physical health problems. More pressure isn't going to help those people but it's the current Government's shtick. I'd say UBI would make it easier to find people working in demanding jobs because you could to them part time, so they don't wear you down as much. It's much easier to work as a nurse for 20 hours a week.
- WesolyKubeczek 7mo ago
  > It's much easier to work as a nurse for 20 hours a week. However, being a nurse is a skilled job that a Joe from street cannot do on a whim, and at the same time it has very shitty pay. I’d say being a nurse competes in shittiness of the pay/work ratio with another indispensable job, a schoolteacher.

collingreen 7mo ago

Why would the people with control of things go out of their way to keep the rest of us alive via UBI? I get your point but what about a step before that - since when is that anyone's goal? From a sociopathic leader perspective, vast populations are only great for armies and tech has surpassed the need for raw manpower at that scale (and the AI you fear would make militaries require even fewer people). In your AI scenario is it more likely the ruling class gives everyone free living standard or just lets like 40% of the population die? If all the leaders get together this is the ideal outcome for them -- vast power and control without enough civilians to rise up, climate change becomes easy to reverse with vastly lower power and food needs, and reduced threat of global war because nobody has an occupying size army anymore. This is like the new version of "mutually assured destruction" as a strategy for global peace. I can't speak for the world but I can imagine some of the twisted folks currently in power in the US seeing this route as their destiny and simply them doing the best thing for humanity as a whole -- longtermists are in, nazis know a final solution when they see one, and Christians are honored to have the duty of bringing forth the second coming.

slopinthebag 7mo ago

UBI just inflates the currency. What will hopefully end up happening is that displaced workers can do jobs which aren't economically viable atm, but are still socially viable: Imagine an army of workers cleaning up the streets (literally) and transforming your town into a clean, well maintained cityscape. Etc etc.

WesolyKubeczek 7mo ago
IMO this cannot work unless there is enforcement to do such work. Most people would prefer to take their money and do fuck all in return. If I was a dictator that wanted to institute UBI, I would do it in exchange for every beneficient getting literally conscripted once in a while to do those shit jobs.