5 ms·

Inflation adjusted dsta just comes to tell us that either eggs have been outdoing the CPI for 25 years or that actual CPI is way higher than what the BLS calcul

Inflation adjusted dsta just comes to tell us that either eggs have been outdoing the CPI for 25 years or that actual CPI is way higher than what the BLS calculates.

yorwba 7mo ago
CPI tracks a weighted average of a large basket of different goods, of which eggs are only a small part. It would be extremely surprising if the change in egg prices over time closely matched CPI.
vitus 7mo ago
It depends what dates you're looking at, but energy (gas prices and more) and food (including eggs) are generally recognized as way more volatile than the rest of the CPI. Eggs were actually quite stable for the 20 years prior to 2001, so maybe don't put your life savings into egg futures... Egg prices: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111 CPI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL Core CPI (without food + energy prices): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL
- PowerElectronix 7mo ago
  That is very curious, yes. Eggs seem to just start to increase dramatically after 2000 and indeed outdo the CPI, disregarding the peaks and valleys of the different shocks to egg production like covid and the avian flu. I read that the price includes free range, eco, etc varieties which are more expensive and in more demand nowadays, probably just that explains a good chunk of the price increase.
  - bix6 7mo ago
    This is a good read if you haven’t seen it. Spoiler alert it’s private equity. Shocker I know. https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/hatching-a-conspiracy-a-big-investigation https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/hatching-a-conspiracy-a-b...
    - PowerElectronix 7mo ago
      That is indeed a good read, I wasn't aware that there is now a Big Egg fixing egg prices.
      - voakbasda 7mo ago
        I think it is now relatively safe to assume that there is Big X fixing the prices of X, for pretty much any X that could turn a profit.
  - ThrownOffGame 7mo ago
    [dead]
- derbOac 7mo ago
  I feel like those links are more useful than the target essay. Reading through them, I wonder why CPIs aren't based on empirical correlational patterns between prices over time? Sort of like in these articles: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1796/1/012118/pdf https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1796/1/... https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1011.pdf https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1011.pdf Or maybe they are? I'm not an expert in this and reading through some of the government literature there's no mention of this. Then at least you would know that a given price marker is a good empirical index of how other prices are changing also, at least for a given dimension/component.
MarceliusK 7mo ago
Or a third option: eggs are just a terrible proxy for CPI
- tclancy 7mo ago
  Without saying "I bought the exact same brand and type of egg" for 25 years, the data is probably pretty noisy and may reflect the author's income changes as well as the price of eggs.
  - joks 7mo ago
    The more recent eggs being from Whole Foods definitely points toward this. I'm in a different part of the country but eggs are currently ~15¢/egg at grocery stores around here.

Inflation adjusted dsta just comes to tell us that either eggs have been outdoing the CPI for 25 years or that actual CPI is way higher than what the BLS calculates.

yorwba 7mo ago

CPI tracks a weighted average of a large basket of different goods, of which eggs are only a small part. It would be extremely surprising if the change in egg prices over time closely matched CPI.

vitus 7mo ago

It depends what dates you're looking at, but energy (gas prices and more) and food (including eggs) are generally recognized as way more volatile than the rest of the CPI. Eggs were actually quite stable for the 20 years prior to 2001, so maybe don't put your life savings into egg futures... Egg prices: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111 CPI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL Core CPI (without food + energy prices): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL

PowerElectronix 7mo ago
That is very curious, yes. Eggs seem to just start to increase dramatically after 2000 and indeed outdo the CPI, disregarding the peaks and valleys of the different shocks to egg production like covid and the avian flu. I read that the price includes free range, eco, etc varieties which are more expensive and in more demand nowadays, probably just that explains a good chunk of the price increase.
- bix6 7mo ago
  This is a good read if you haven’t seen it. Spoiler alert it’s private equity. Shocker I know. https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/hatching-a-conspiracy-a-big-investigation https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/hatching-a-conspiracy-a-b...
  - PowerElectronix 7mo ago
    That is indeed a good read, I wasn't aware that there is now a Big Egg fixing egg prices.
    - voakbasda 7mo ago
      I think it is now relatively safe to assume that there is Big X fixing the prices of X, for pretty much any X that could turn a profit.
- ThrownOffGame 7mo ago
  [dead]
derbOac 7mo ago
I feel like those links are more useful than the target essay. Reading through them, I wonder why CPIs aren't based on empirical correlational patterns between prices over time? Sort of like in these articles: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1796/1/012118/pdf https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1796/1/... https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1011.pdf https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1011.pdf Or maybe they are? I'm not an expert in this and reading through some of the government literature there's no mention of this. Then at least you would know that a given price marker is a good empirical index of how other prices are changing also, at least for a given dimension/component.

MarceliusK 7mo ago

Or a third option: eggs are just a terrible proxy for CPI

tclancy 7mo ago
Without saying "I bought the exact same brand and type of egg" for 25 years, the data is probably pretty noisy and may reflect the author's income changes as well as the price of eggs.
- joks 7mo ago
  The more recent eggs being from Whole Foods definitely points toward this. I'm in a different part of the country but eggs are currently ~15¢/egg at grocery stores around here.